Asaja Córdoba has favorably highlighted the performance of the olive oil market in the ninth month of the 2025/2026 marketing campaign, in which "a high pace of commercialization is maintained, which will allow us to link to the next campaign with very tight stocks," although the agrarian organization has warned of its concern "about the effect that the high temperatures of recent weeks are having on rainfed olive groves, especially in areas of the Cordoban Campiña, where the trees are beginning to show significant water stress."
In an informative note, the association has specified that, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAPA), the accumulated production of olive oil already amounts to 1,298,502.89 tons in the country as a whole. In June alone, market departures were around 120,720 tons, so that the volume marketed in the first nine months of the campaign stands at 1,107,410 tons.
To carry out this balance, imports of 25,000 tons have been calculated, which will be ratified when Customs releases the definitive figures. As of June 30, total stocks stand at 683,345.5 tons, which implies a decrease of 95,121 tons compared to the previous month and highlights the dynamism of demand.
Of that stored volume, 419,283.47 tons remain in the oil mills, 87,117 tons less than in May. For their part, bottlers have 258,240 tons, after a monthly reduction of 7,296 tons, while the Communal Olive Heritage holds 5,824 tons, 692 less than the previous month.
Asaja Córdoba has recalled that the 2024/2025 campaign concluded with final stocks of 289,670 tons and estimates that, if the current pace of departures is maintained, on October 30, when the new oil begins to arrive on the market, Spain will face the link between campaigns with around 50,000 tons, a very tight level that highlights the balance between supply and demand.
However, the sector's focus is already shifting towards the behavior of the next harvest, given that, "despite the abundant rains recorded during the winter, the high temperatures of the last two weeks are causing significant water stress in the rainfed olive groves of some regions of the province, especially in the Campiña."
The organization has pointed out that "the olive tree is currently going through a decisive phase for the development of the fruit and that the climate of the coming months will be decisive for the harvest". Although the flowering has developed satisfactorily, the recent episode of intense heat "is affecting the general state of the plants and could influence the final yield if high temperatures persist during the summer".
Despite this, the agricultural employers' association emphasizes that "it is still too early to make any production estimates". The crop has barely completed just over a third of its annual cycle and, as Asaja Córdoba recalls, "the olive grove sleeps in the open air", so its final behavior will be conditioned by the weather in the coming months.
Along these lines, the organization has pointed out that, according to the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), May and June of this year have registered unprecedented thermal records in the main olive-growing areas. In particular, May 9 was the warmest day for that date since 1961 and the month of June has become the hottest since records began, in 1950.
For this reason, the association concludes that, "although these episodes of extreme heat force us to remain cautious, there are still about two-thirds of the crop cycle left, so any forecast about next season's production would be premature". The evolution of temperatures and rainfall during the summer and the beginning of autumn will be what ultimately determines the productive potential of the Cordoban olive grove.