Víridi Horizons, Spanish vertical operator specialized in pistachio, anticipates that national production in the 2026 campaign will be situated in a range of between 12,000 and 14,000 tons. The forecast comes in a context of gradual increase in Spanish supply and expectations of initially stable prices, as detailed by the company in a statement.
This projection implies a downward adjustment of the initial estimates for the campaign, which pointed to a volume above 14,000 tons. However, the final figure will depend on how the weather evolves in the coming weeks and the final size of the fruit.
"The campaign had evolved almost perfectly until mid-August, with good conditions during flowering and excellent vegetative development. However, the drop in temperatures, the increase in humidity, and the rains of recent weeks have changed the scenario and require heightened control to ensure product quality," noted the technical director of Víridi Horizons, Ignacio Soler de la Azuela.
The technical manager also emphasizes that this campaign presents a relevant agronomic singularity: an advance of the pistachio cycle of between seven and ten days. "Both flowering and maturation have shifted approximately within that interval, in line with a trend towards earlier flowering that has been observed in recent years," he explained.
In terms of prices, the company takes as a starting reference levels close to those recorded in the previous campaign. Its final behavior, however, will be conditioned by the evolution of global production, the volume of accumulated stocks, and the export capacity of the main producing countries.
Víridi Horizons' internal projections contemplate a drop of at least 40% in the pistachio harvest from the United States, which could reach 50%. This decline is attributed, above all, to the intense heatwave during flowering, which affected the setting of the fruit, and to water limitations. The impact on prices will also depend on the stocks from previous campaigns and the pace of their sales abroad, particularly to China.
The company also estimates that the availability of pistachio from other major producing origins could contract throughout this year.
Spain will accelerate its production in the coming years
In the Spanish case, Víridi Horizons considers that the great turning point for the sector will arrive in the coming years. Currently, it is estimated that there are about 90,000 hectares of pistachio planted in Spain, of which only around 20% are already in full production, leaving a wide potential for new farms that will gradually be incorporated into the market.
The company expects this increase to intensify when the plantations established in the last five or six years reach their maximum yield, characterized by a larger average size and a higher level of technology.
"During the next three to five years we will witness a very important acceleration of the entry into production. When these young farms reach their productive capacity, we will see very significant jumps in the Spanish harvest," indicated Soler de la Azuela.