The news that OpenAI is confidentially preparing its stock market debut marks a turning point in the history of artificial intelligence.
We are no longer dealing with another technology company seeking funding. We are facing an attempt to transform generative AI into a benchmark financial asset for global markets, with all that entails.
Over the past few years, public debate on AI has revolved around innovation, productivity, ethical risks, or the impact on the environment or employment. However, the IPO of ChatGPT would shift the focus of the conversation towards a question about the sustainability of the business model: what happens when the development of AI moves from depending on the logic of algorithms to being subjected to the logic of financial markets?
Little Pati-AI
Until now, a company like OpenAI has been able to operate under a relatively simple, albeit eventually anti-competitive, premise: spend today to dominate the market tomorrow.
And, in this scenario, private investors have accepted multi-billion dollar losses in exchange for the promise of controlling the cognitive infrastructure of the future.
However, public markets are usually less patient. Once listed, the company will have to explain not only how much it earns, but also how much it costs to generate each response, train each model, and maintain the gigantic computational infrastructure it needs to operate, with the usual environmental problems that, increasingly alarmingly, question the sustainability of this technology.
Experience has shown us that a move like this, even despite positive economic results, can create structural tension between user demands for more powerful models, increased regulatory oversight, and the higher profitability demanded by shareholders.
The main problem is that it is not always possible to satisfy all three demands simultaneously. This leads us to a first conclusion, which is that the true significance of this operation is not in the digital world, but on Wall Street.
Indeed, if the company's exit valuation reaches the trillion-dollar figures being discussed, AI will cease to be simply a technological sector and will become a disruptive element, also in capital markets.
Millions of savers begin to invest in foundational models without even being aware of it.
Which leads us to think that AI will most likely cease to be an exclusively technological issue in the short term and also become a matter of financial stability.
As things stand, a series of fears are beginning to grow among investors, including that stock market indices will depend on the evolution of AI companies, or that millions of savers will begin to invest in foundational models without even being aware of it.
Squeezing our data
From a privacy perspective, going public poses a new challenge for privacy. We start from the premise that AI models need three fundamental resources: data, computing power, and capital.
A publicly traded company has permanent incentives to increase its revenue and valuation. This can generate pressure to monetize its products and services more intensely, but also to obtain more data and develop new forms of profiling and personalization.
However, this does not necessarily mean that privacy will be degraded. But it does mean that data governance will no longer be conditioned solely by technical or ethical criteria and will be influenced by quarterly expectations of growth and profitability.
The risk of concentration
In addition to all of the above, there is also a geopolitical issue to consider. The costs of developing models of this nature are so high that fewer and fewer organizations can compete on equal terms.
That is to say, if players like those we know reach valuations close to a trillion dollars, the barrier to entry for new competitors could lead to an unprecedented market concentration in history: concentration of capital, data, computational capacity, political influence.
And, ultimately, concentration of power over the systems that control a large part of **economic and social activity**.
The big regulatory question
The IPO of OpenAI will force regulators, data protection supervisors, and competition authorities to rethink a fundamental question that is not new, although they have not wanted to hear it:
Should we continue to consider large AI companies as simple technology companies, or should we start treating them as critical infrastructure?
In other words, if an entity controls artificial intelligence models that are used in education, healthcare, finance, public administration, cybersecurity, and defense, its systemic relevance moves away from that of a traditional software provider and is more akin to that of a large financial entity or an energy company on which business continuity depends.
Keynes?
OpenAI's potential IPO is not just a stock market news item. It is a sign that artificial intelligence is entering a new phase of economic and institutional maturity. It is a first-class financial asset, which no longer affects users or some markets. The impact is global. Is our 19th-century economy prepared for it?
About the author:
Francisco Pérez Bes is an advisor to the Spanish Data Protection Agency. He was also a partner in the Digital Law area of Ecix Group and is former Secretary General of the National Cybersecurity Institute (INCIBE).