Can there be another strong earthquake in Granada? What do the aftershocks mean and what can be anticipated?

In Spain, research on earthquakes has not yet achieved exact prediction (day, time, place, and magnitude), and the scientific organizations themselves insist that this remains practically impossible. However, in recent years there has been significant progress in monitoring, probabilistic forecasting, and early warning systems, increasingly supported by dense sensor networks and artificial intelligence (AI) tools.

Institutional framework and recent plans

The main state actor is the National Geographic Institute (IGN), which manages the National Seismic Network. In 2025, the Council of Ministers approved the National Plan for Seismic, Volcanological, and Other Geophysical Phenomena Surveillance 2025‑2028 , prepared by the IGN. This plan includes 58 measures to strengthen detection networks for earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, and other geophysical phenomena, improve alert communications, and better coordinate the various administrations.

According to that official note, the National Seismic Network will incorporate AI-based tools to improve early warnings in case of earthquakes, aiming to reduce warning times and better anticipate effects. The Plan emphasizes that earthquakes are “much more difficult to manage or predict”, so the effort focuses on rapid detection, estimating probable damage, and activating response, rather than deterministic prediction.

In parallel, the Spanish Commission of Geodesy and Geophysics (CEGG), also attached to the IGN, coordinates scientific collaboration in seismology and related disciplines. The XII Hispano-Portuguese Assembly of Geodesy and Geophysics (Madrid, 2026) serves as a forum for exchange between Spanish and Portuguese researchers to improve prevention, detection, and warning against geohazards, including earthquakes, and to strengthen resilience and response capacity.

Seismic networks and detection capacity

Applied research relies on increasingly dense and sophisticated seismic networks. A notable example is the Xarxa Sísmica de Catalunya, managed by the Cartographic and Geological Institute of Catalonia (ICGC) , with more than 50 stations distributed across the territory and neighboring areas. These stations use broadband sensors, transmit data almost in real time via satellite, and allow precise localization of thousands of small earthquakes annually, most imperceptible.

The ICGC integrates its data into the European EIDA network, facilitating international research on seismic hazard and improving risk models. The Generalitat itself emphasizes that the goal is not “zero risk,” but risk management through better information, mapping, and rapid alerts to Civil Protection.

AI, civil protection, and forecasting

Beyond classical seismology, the National Civil Protection Strategy approved in 2024 explicitly incorporates AI as a key tool. An analysis published in Demócrata on artificial intelligence for civil protection highlights that the Strategy plans to “study and evaluate possible courses of action” to apply AI to early risk detection, cascading risk analysis, and early damage assessment.

In practice, this translates into projects combining seismic, topographic, and meteorological data with real-time information from sensors, cameras, or satellites to identify anomalies and anticipate disasters. In Spain and at the European level, systems are being tested that:

• Refine probabilistic models of where significant earthquakes are more likely to occur in the medium and long term.
• Improve early warning systems that, once an earthquake starts, can provide seconds or tens of seconds of margin to infrastructures and population before the strong shaking arrives.
• Assist in post-disaster assessment (damage to buildings, critical infrastructures, etc.) based on large volumes of data.

Real advances and limitations

Based on the official and divulgative sources consulted, the situation can be summarized as follows:

• No deterministic prediction exists: organizations like the IGN and other experts remind that it is not possible to predict exactly when a specific earthquake will occur. Research in Spain accepts this physical limit and focuses on probabilities, scenarios, and alerts.
• Strong commitment to monitoring and early warning: the National Surveillance Plan and regional networks (ICGC, SISMOCAT, etc.) invest in more stations, better data transmission, and automatic processing algorithms, including AI techniques.
• Broad academic and international collaboration: only in the National Surveillance Plan have 54 academic-scientific entities and administrations participated, and close cooperation with Portugal and European networks is maintained.
• Focus on risk management: the priority is to translate scientific knowledge into hazard maps, seismic-resistant standards, emergency plans, and warning systems, rather than promising an individual prediction of the next major earthquake.

Overall, Spanish earthquake research aligns with the international consensus: it cannot predict individual earthquakes, but it can continuously improve the ability to anticipate where they are most likely to occur, quickly detect those that happen, and reduce their consequences on the population and infrastructures.

In Spain, the National Geographic Institute (IGN) is the State's reference body in seismology. Its functions combine continuous scientific monitoring of seismic activity, operation of observation networks, generation of information for early warnings, and providing technical support for regulations and emergency planning, in close coordination with other administrations.

Seismic monitoring and observation networks

The IGN directs and operates the National Seismic Network, which records seismic activity throughout the Spanish territory and nearby areas. Through a network of instrumental stations distributed across the peninsula, Canary Islands, Balearic Islands, and the Alboran Sea area, the IGN:

• Detects and locates earthquakes (magnitude, hypocenter, affected area).
• Analyzes their hazard and the pattern of seismic series or swarms.
• Keeps the official earthquake record updated, used as a scientific, technical, and administrative reference.

According to the organizational structure established by Royal Decree 253/2024, the IGN has the competence to plan and manage geophysical observation systems, which includes:

• Seismic networks and associated stations.
• Geodetic networks and tide gauges related to tsunamis and ground deformation.
• Observation systems for volcanic activity and other geophysical phenomena (geomagnetism, space weather).

Alert functions and warning systems

In the seismic field, the IGN not only observes but also participates in the issuance of early information that serves as the basis for civil protection alerts:

• The National Plan for Seismic, Volcanological, and Other Geophysical Phenomena Surveillance 2025‑2028, approved by the Council of Ministers and prepared by the IGN, includes 58 measures to strengthen monitoring networks and improve communication and response systems for earthquakes, eruptions, and tsunamis, including artificial intelligence tools for rapid alerts.
• Under Royal Decree 1053/2015, the IGN's National Seismic Network is part of the National Tsunami Warning System, acting as the body responsible for detecting, assessing, and initially informing about phenomena that may generate tsunamis.
• The official note from the Ministry of Transport emphasizes that the Plan's mission is to coordinate different monitoring systems “so that they act as one,” accelerating alert times and reducing risks.

These technical functions do not equate to directly sending messages to the population (which is the responsibility of Civil Protection), but rather to providing expert information in near real time that triggers those institutional alerts.

Regulatory framework and support for public policies

The IGN also plays a regulatory and support role:

• The National Surveillance Plan, prepared by the IGN, compiles the existing technical and regulatory resources regarding monitoring and alerting of “geohazards” and serves as a basis for future public disaster management policies, according to the Ministry of Transport and Sustainable Mobility.
• Through its studies and hazard and seismicity maps, the IGN provides the scientific basis used in seismic-resistant regulations and in urban and infrastructure planning in higher-risk areas.
• It participates in agreements and projects with universities and scientific consortia to develop instrumentation and advanced methodologies related to seismic, volcanic, and tsunami monitoring.

Coordination with emergencies and other administrations

The design of the Spanish seismic risk management system relies on close coordination between the IGN and civil protection services:

• The National Plan, technically chaired by the IGN, includes 54 academic, scientific, and administrative entities, strengthening interinstitutional coordination in detection, data exchange, and response.
• In the tsunami warning system, the IGN coordinates with Civil Protection and other bodies so that technical information translates into operational decisions (warnings, evacuations, activation of territorial plans).
• In specific crises (e.g., La Palma 2021 or recent seismic series), the IGN provides continuous reports on the phenomenon's evolution, supporting regional and state emergency centers.

In summary, regarding seismology, the National Geographic Institute is the technical core of the Spanish system: it observes, analyzes, coordinates networks, feeds alerts, and supports regulations and emergency planning, in collaboration with other competent administrations.

Spanish legislation on seismic emergency plans is based on a civil protection “block” that sets both the general framework and specific requirements for seismic risk. In summary, plans must be developed in a coordinated manner among the State, autonomous communities, and local entities, following a minimum common structure that ensures interoperability, information to the population, and care for vulnerable persons.

1. Basic regulatory framework

At the state level, requirements for seismic emergency plans are mainly articulated through:

• Law 17/2015, of July 9, on the National Civil Protection System (text in BOE), which establishes the system's organization, types of plans (territorial and special), and the principle of coordination among administrations.
• Basic Civil Protection Standard (updated by Royal Decree 524/2023), which determines that seismic risk must be addressed through special plans in territorial areas that require it.
• Basic Directive for Civil Protection Planning against Seismic Risk, approved by Council of Ministers Agreement of April 7, 1995, and published by Resolution of May 5, 1995 (Seismic Directive), modified in 2004. This directive sets the minimum requirements for special seismic plans.
• State Civil Protection Plan against Seismic Risk, approved by Council of Ministers Agreement of March 26, 2010, and published by Resolution of March 29, 2010 (State Plan 2010), which specifies the organization and procedures of state resources.

2. Territorial levels and coordination

The Seismic Directive establishes three planning levels:

• State Plan: organizes the State's resources and services when national interest is at stake or support to autonomous communities is required.
• Autonomous community plans: mandatory in communities that include seismic hazard areas (defined by the hazard map of the National Geographic Institute) and must be approved according to the Directive.
• Local action plans: framed within autonomous plans and develop operational capacity in municipalities and local entities.

The Directive requires that this entire system functions as a “minimum national model” integrated so that state, autonomous, and local plans are coordinable and integrable. The following are foreseen:

• Integrated Operational Coordination Centers (CECOPI), where State and autonomous community representatives jointly sit to direct the emergency.
• Mechanisms to mobilize resources from unaffected communities and to request international aid through the Directorate General of Civil Protection and Emergencies.

3. Minimum content of seismic plans

The Seismic Directive and the State Plan set a series of content requirements that autonomous and local plans must meet to be approved:

• Hazard and risk analysis: identification of seismic hazard areas (intensities ≥ VI EMS, 500-year return period) and assessment of potential damage to population, buildings, infrastructures, and essential services.
• Definition of phases and situations: at least one phase of “intensified monitoring and information” and an “emergency” phase, with situations 0, 1, 2, and 3 according to severity, extent, and need for external resources, plus a “normalization” phase.
• Intervention measures: rescue and relief, urgent health assistance, evacuation, shelter and social assistance, restoration of essential services, health control, security and public order, measures on damaged buildings and strategic infrastructures.
• Organizational structure: political leadership bodies, operational management, advisory committees, information offices, and advanced command posts, with clear definition of competencies.
• Seismic information system: use of warnings from the National Geographic Institute (focal parameters, affected area, estimated intensities) and rapid dissemination procedures to authorities and population.

4. Information to the population, drills, and vulnerable groups

The Directive and modifications introduced by Order PCI/1283/2019, developed in the State Plan, impose specific requirements in three areas:

• Preventive information and education: obligation to establish citizen information programs on what to do before, during, and after an earthquake, with accessible and continuous campaigns.
• Alerts and communications in emergencies: plans must provide warning systems to the population (sirens, media, telephony, etc.) and protocols to keep citizens informed during all phases, including situation 0 of “felt” earthquakes without damage.
• Drills and training: plans must include periodic exercises and drills and specific training for intervention services. Recent regulations require that all this incorporate concrete measures for persons with disabilities and other vulnerable groups (information accessibility, specific protocols, adapted resources).

Overall, Spanish legislation not only requires seismic emergency plans where hazard exists but also demands that these plans have a homogeneous, coordinated design oriented to the effective protection of the entire population, with special attention to interoperability among administrations and inclusion of the most vulnerable people.