Survey elections in Cantabria: Buruaga would win again and the PSOE would surpass the PRC, according to Sigma Dos

Key procedures to form government in Cantabria after elections

The formation of government in Cantabria after regional elections follows a very structured path that combines the Statute of Autonomy and the Rules of the Parliament of Cantabria. First, the new Parliament is constituted, the Board is elected, and parliamentary groups are formed; from there, the President of the Parliament proposes a candidate for the Presidency. That candidate undergoes one or more investiture debates and votes with different majorities depending on the vote. If within two months from the first vote no president is elected, the Parliament is automatically dissolved and new regional elections are called.

1. Constitution of the Parliament of Cantabria

After the regional elections are held and the results are officially proclaimed, the Chamber must meet in a constitutive session within the legal deadline (in practice, usually around 20 days from the election call). In that session, the status of elected deputies is verified and the taking of office takes place, at which point they acquire full parliamentary status.

This first session is presided over by an Age Board (the oldest deputy assisted by the youngest) until the definitive Board is elected. Without this constitutive session, the rest of the government formation procedure does not start.

2. Election of the Board of the Parliament

Immediately afterwards, in the same constitutive session, the Plenary elects the Board of the Parliament, the body that directs and organizes the internal life of the Chamber. The Board is composed of a President, one or more Vice Presidents, and Secretaries, whose election is carried out by voting of the deputies according to the procedure detailed in the Rules of the Parliament of Cantabria.

The election of the Board is decisive because its President will become a central figure in government formation: they direct consultations with the groups and formulate the proposal of candidate for the Presidency of the Government of Cantabria.

3. Constitution of parliamentary groups

Once the Chamber is constituted and the Board elected, a period opens, which the Rules normally set at 5 working days from the constitutive session, for deputies to communicate to the Board the constitution of parliamentary groups. Each group must meet the regulatory requirements (mainly, a minimum number of parliamentarians).

The Board verifies that the conditions are met and formally declares the groups constituted. Deputies who cannot join a group due to not reaching the minimum go to the Mixed Group. The configuration of groups is key because they participate in investiture consultations and negotiate support.

4. Proposal of candidate for the Presidency

Once the Chamber and its groups are constituted, the President of the Parliament of Cantabria opens a round of consultations with the spokespersons of all parliamentary groups to check which candidate has the best chance of obtaining the confidence of the Chamber. After these consultations, they propose a candidate for the Presidency of the Government of Cantabria.

This proposal is formalized by convening an Investiture Plenary, in which the designated candidate will defend their program and request the confidence of the Parliament.

5. Investiture debate

In the investiture debate, the candidate presents their government program before the Plenary. Usually, they intervene first without time limit or with a broad time set by the Rules, and then the parliamentary groups intervene, either in order from largest to smallest representation or as established by the Board of Spokespersons.

After the rounds of reply and counter-reply between the candidate and the different spokespersons, the President of the Parliament declares the debate closed and the investiture vote is held.

6. Investiture votes and required majorities

The majority system in Cantabria follows the general autonomous scheme:

First vote: immediately after the debate, a vote is held in which the candidate needs the absolute majority of the Chamber, that is, the favorable vote of more than half of the deputies.

Second vote: if the absolute majority is not achieved, a new vote is called 48 hours later. In this second vote, a simple majority is sufficient, that is, obtaining more votes in favor than against; abstentions do not count either for or against.

If the candidate obtains confidence in either of the two votes, the President of the Parliament proclaims them President of the Government of Cantabria, the result is communicated to the King, and the taking of office and, subsequently, the appointment of ministers proceed.

7. Failure of investiture and automatic dissolution

If the proposed candidate does not obtain confidence and, if applicable, other candidates also fail in successive debates, the Statute of Autonomy sets a maximum period of two months from the date of the first investiture vote for the Parliament to elect a President.

If after those two months no candidate has been invested, the automatic dissolution of the Parliament of Cantabria occurs and the call for new regional elections. This anti-blockade mechanism aims to avoid an indefinite interim situation and force political forces to reach agreements or, failing that, return the word to the electorate.

8. Applicable regulatory framework

This entire procedure is supported by two major norms:

On one hand, the Statute of Autonomy of Cantabria, which defines the institutions of the Community, the role of the President, and the basic investiture scheme, including the majorities and the two-month period before automatic dissolution. On the other, the Rules of the Parliament of Cantabria, which detail the constitutive session, the election of the Board, the constitution of groups, the format and times of the investiture debate, and the formalities of the votes.

The combination of both norms guarantees an orderly process, with clear deadlines and defined majorities, balancing the need for governmental stability with the proportional representation arising from the polls.

PRC results in the regional elections prior to Revilla's departure

In the last regional elections held in Cantabria before Miguel Ángel Revilla's departure from the Presidency were those of May 2023. In those elections, the Regionalist Party of Cantabria (PRC) obtained 8 seats and around 20 % of the vote, placing well below its previous best results. Various press coverages and electoral data compilations indicate that in 2019 it had reached 37.74 % of the votes and 15 deputies, so in 2023 it lost 7 seats and practically half of its electoral support. That setback opened the door to a change of government and the investiture of María José Sáenz de Buruaga as regional president, marking the end of Revilla's era at the head of the Cantabrian Executive.

Key call: Cantabria regional elections of 2023

The regional elections of May 2023 are the immediate reference to understand Miguel Ángel Revilla's departure from the Presidency of Cantabria. According to the electoral summary obtained from general press and specialized databases, the PRC achieved in that event:

– Approximately 20 % of the votes cast.
– 8 seats in the Parliament of Cantabria.

The national press, such as El País, highlights that this result represented a strong setback for Revilla's party and broke the leadership dynamic that the PRC had maintained in Cantabrian politics. The analysis of historical series of regional results, like the one collected by Electoral History, allows contextualizing that the threshold of 8 deputies was far below the representation reached in previous cycles.

Comparison with the 2019 regional elections

To understand the magnitude of the change between the peak of Revillism and the 2023 call, the comparison with the 2019 regional elections is key. According to the historical reconstruction of results and the party's own documentation on its official page prc.es/historia, the PRC had then achieved:

– 37.74 % of the votes.
– 15 seats in the Parliament of Cantabria.

This figure consolidated the PRC as a clearly hegemonic force in the regional scenario, placing it as the most voted list and with representation very close to an absolute majority. Reports such as the chronicle from Crónicas de la Emigración emphasize how the 2019 regional elections crowned Revilla's political project, which was then just a few seats short of an absolute majority on its own.

In contrast, in 2023 the loss of 7 seats and nearly half the vote percentage drastically reduced the PRC's capacity to lead the government. Politically, this shift is interpreted as the end of a cycle that had begun with the sustained growth of the regionalist formation during previous decades, as also reflected in public interventions by Revilla himself in forums such as Nueva Economía Fórum.

Political context of Miguel Ángel Revilla's departure

The 2023 electoral decline not only meant a numerical drop but had direct consequences on Cantabria's governability. The PRC ceased to be the central force capable of articulating stable parliamentary majorities, and the resulting scenario favored a change in the presidency, culminating with the investiture of María José Sáenz de Buruaga. Specialized press analysis directly links the setback from 2019 to 2023 with the end of Revilla's mandate, who had been for years the dominant figure in regional politics.

In summary, in the last regional elections prior to Miguel Ángel Revilla's departure, the PRC went from a historic maximum of 15 seats and 37.74 % of the votes in 2019 to 8 seats and around 20 % in 2023. That loss of parliamentary weight and social support explains the political cycle change in Cantabria and the transition to new leadership in the regional government, as derived from electoral chronicles and historical assessments compiled in Electoral History and the PRC's own materials.