The PP would continue to be the most voted force in La Rioja if the regional elections were held today, but it would no longer have guaranteed the absolute majority it achieved in 2023. This is reflected in a Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo, which places the popular party at 46% of the votes and in a range of between 16 and 17 seats, just at the limit that separates governing alone from the need for external support.
The poll, conducted between May 28 and June 4 from 1,007 interviews, maintains Gonzalo Capellán as the clear winner of the elections, but draws a more closely contested Riojan Parliament than the current one. The main change compared to the 2023 elections would not be in the PP, but in the growth of Vox, which increases its electoral and parliamentary weight to become a potentially decisive actor.
The main novelty of the poll is the advance of Vox. The party would go from 7.6% of the votes obtained in the 2023 regional elections to 13.5%.
The absolute majority in the Parliament of La Rioja stands at 17 seats, so a single deputy could determine whether Capellán continues to govern alone or needs parliamentary agreements.
Vote transfer
According to data published by El Mundo, Vox captures part of its new support among former PP voters, although it also receives votes from the PSOE and the Riojan Party. This transfer of support explains why the popular party barely loses electoral backing, but does see its parliamentary position threatened.
The poll also reflects a trend that also appears in other regional polls published in recent months: the strengthening of Vox within the center-right bloc and its growing capacity to influence future regional governments.
The PSOE loses ground compared to 2023
The PSOE would go from 31.9% of the votes obtained in the 2023 regional elections to 26.9%. In parliamentary terms, the fall would be equally significant, going from the current 12 deputies to a range of between 9 and 10 seats.
The loss of socialist support would not be completely compensated by the evolution of IU-Podemos, which would improve its results compared to the last regional elections. The coalition would go from 5.1% to 6.8% of the votes and would retain a representation of between one and two deputies. However, this improvement would not be enough to balance the loss of weight of the main party of the Riojan left.
The result would be a Chamber in which the progressive bloc would have less parliamentary capacity than in the current legislature.
What changes compared to the previous Sigma Dos poll
The comparison with the Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo published about a year ago allows for a better observation of the evolution of the political scenario in La Rioja.
At that time, the polling institute gave the PP 46.8% of the votes, the PSOE 32.6%, Vox 10.1%, and IU-Podemos 5.8%.
The comparison shows several relevant movements:
- PP: 46.8% → 46.0%.
- PSOE: 32.6% → 26.9%.
- Vox: 10.1% → 13.5%.
- IU-Podemos: 5.8% → 6.8%.
The most striking fact is that the PP barely moves compared to the previous poll. Gonzalo Capellán's party maintains its electoral support practically intact and continues far ahead of its rivals.
On the contrary, the PSOE registers the most significant drop of all parties, while Vox leads the most intense growth in the poll.
The Sigma Dos series thus points to an internal rearrangement of support among the different political forces rather than a change of bloc. The PP would continue to clearly dominate La Rioja politics, but the rise of Vox could alter the government formula that emerged from the 2023 elections.
With approximately one year to go until the next elections in La Rioja, the poll outlines an open scenario in which the PP's victory seems consolidated, but where Gonzalo Capellán's absolute majority no longer appears as assured as a few months ago.
Source: Sigma Dos for El Mundo, published on 08/06/2026.
| PARTY | SEATS | % VOTES |
| PP | 16-17 | 46 |
| PSOE | 9-10 | 26.9 |
| Vox | 4-5 | 13.5 |
| Podemos | 1-2 | 6.8 |