Survey elections in Baleares: the PP is two seats short of governing alone, according to IBES

Brief answer

To achieve representation in the Parliament of the Balearic Islands, a candidacy must be validly presented (registered party, formalized coalition, or group of electors with sufficient signatures), surpass the legal threshold of 5 % of valid votes in the island constituency where it runs, and then enter the seat distribution made by the d’Hondt system. Seats are distributed by islands (Mallorca, Menorca, Ibiza, and Formentera) and there is no joint regional threshold, only by constituency. In the islands with more seats (Mallorca) the effective threshold to obtain a seat may be somewhat lower than 5 %, while in the smaller ones (Menorca, Ibiza, and especially Formentera) the real threshold is significantly higher. All this is mainly regulated in the LOREG and the Electoral Law of the Balearic Islands.

1. Types of candidacies and legal validity

Three types of candidacies can run in the elections to the Parliament of the Balearic Islands:

a) Political parties and federations
They must be legally constituted and registered in the Political Parties Registry of the Ministry of the Interior, in accordance with the Organic Law 5/1985, of June 19, on the General Electoral Regime (LOREG). Once the elections are called, they present their closed and blocked list in each island constituency where they wish to run.

b) Electoral coalitions
Parties and federations can form coalitions, which must be communicated to the competent Electoral Board within the deadlines set in the LOREG. The coalition is considered a single candidacy for all purposes (joint lists, vote counting, application of the 5 % threshold).

c) Groups of electors
These are not parties but candidacies formed specifically for a particular election. To run, they must collect a minimum number of signatures from electors registered in the census of the constituency where they run. According to the LOREG, in regional elections at least 1 % of the electoral census of the constituency is required. No elector can sign in favor of more than one group of electors for the same election, under penalty of invalidating signatures.

2. Constituencies, seats, and distribution system

The Law 1/1986, of April 30, Electoral Law of the Balearic Islands establishes that the electoral constituency is each island, with this seat distribution:

Mallorca: 33 seats
Menorca: 13 seats
Ibiza: 12 seats
Formentera: 1 seat

The distribution within each island is done using the d’Hondt method, applying proportionality over the lists that have surpassed the minimum vote threshold. The lists are closed and blocked: the order of candidates is set by each candidacy and the voter only chooses a complete list.

3. Electoral threshold (legal threshold)

Balearic legislation sets a electoral threshold of 5 % of valid votes in each island constituency (including blank votes). This implies:

• The threshold is calculated per island, not for the whole of the Balearic Islands.
• There is no overall regional percentage requirement: it is enough to meet the 5 % in the island where seats are sought.
• If a candidacy does not reach that 5 % of valid votes in an island, it is excluded from the seat distribution in that constituency even if it obtains thousands of votes.

4. Approximate real threshold according to island size

Although the legal threshold is 5 % in all constituencies, the effective threshold to obtain a seat depends on the number of seats at stake and the fragmentation of the vote:

Mallorca (33 seats)
The high number of seats allows relatively proportional representation. Surpassing the legal 5 %, the first seat can be reached with around 3–4 % of the votes, depending on how they are distributed among other candidacies. In practice, entering the Parliament through Mallorca mainly involves comfortably surpassing the 5 % threshold.

Menorca (13 seats)
The medium size of the constituency raises the real threshold. Comparative experience suggests that the percentage needed to obtain the last seat is usually around 7–8 % of the votes, so small formations, even surpassing the legal 5 %, may remain without representation if the vote is highly concentrated on other lists.

Ibiza (12 seats)
The effect is similar to Menorca. With only 12 seats, the effective threshold to achieve representation also approaches 8 %, depending on the number of significant candidacies and the degree of fragmentation.

Formentera (1 seat)
It is a single-member constituency: only one deputy is elected. Here the d’Hondt system operates de facto as simple majority: the most voted list takes the only seat. The real threshold thus approaches the relative majority, which in many practical scenarios can be around 50 % of the votes, although it could be somewhat lower if there are many candidacies.

5. Applicable regulations

The main legal framework consists of:

• Organic Law 5/1985, of June 19, on the General Electoral Regime (LOREG), which regulates the presentation of candidacies, groups of electors, signature requirements, and general aspects of the electoral process.
• Law 1/1986, of April 30, Electoral Law of the Balearic Islands, which specifies the organization of regional elections, island constituencies, number of seats per island, 5 % electoral threshold, and application of the d’Hondt system.

Functions of the president of the Balearic Government according to the Statute

The president of the Government of the Balearic Islands, according to the current Statute of Autonomy (Organic Law 1/2007), is the highest political and institutional authority of the Autonomous Community and embodies its ordinary representation before the State. Her functions are concentrated in four main blocks: institutional representation, political and government leadership, exercise of normative powers (including legislative initiative and promulgation of norms), and other key attributions such as managing parliamentary confidence, dissolving the Parliament, and coordinating with state institutions. These powers are mainly set out in articles 15 to 21 of the Statute. They are systematically detailed below according to these functional categories.

1. Basic statutory framework

The legal regime of the president and the Government is mainly articulated in:

Articles 15 to 21 of the Statute of Autonomy of the Balearic Islands, which regulate:

– The nature and functions of the Government (arts. 15 and 17).
– The figure of the Presidency of the Government and its powers (art. 16).
– The appointment and dismissal of the president (art. 18).
– Parliamentary confidence and its mechanisms (art. 19).
– The dissolution of the Parliament and the calling of elections (art. 20).
– The relations of the Autonomous Community with the State (art. 21).

On this basis, the functions set out below are configured.

2. Institutional and representation functions

According to article 16 of the Statute, the president of the Government:

– Is the highest institutional representative of the Autonomous Community of the Balearic Islands.
– Holds the ordinary representation of the State in the Autonomous Community, under the terms provided in the Constitution and the Statute itself.
– Represents the Government and the Autonomous Community in official acts, relations with other public administrations (state, regional, local), and with European and international institutions when appropriate.
– Presides over Government sessions and directs its deliberations, exercising institutional leadership over the regional Executive.

These functions have a symbolic dimension (embodying the regional institution) and a legal one (legal representation of the Autonomous Community in its external relations).

3. Political and Government leadership functions

The Statute assigns the president a central role of political leadership of the Executive:

– According to articles 15, 16, and 17, she is responsible for directing the action of the Government and the regional Administration, setting the general lines of the Balearic Government's policy.
– She exercises coordination and supervision of the actions of the consellers, ensuring the unity of action of the Executive.
– She has the power to appoint and dismiss members of the Government freely, under the terms established statutorily (arts. 16 and 18).
– She assumes the overall political responsibility of the Government before the Parliament, answering for the general orientation of regional policy.

In practice, this makes the president the decision-making center of the regional executive power, with the capacity to configure and reorganize her government team and set the political agenda.

4. Normative functions and legislative initiative

The Statute recognizes the president, through the Government, a relevant role in normative production:

– Article 17 attributes to the Government the legislative initiative before the Parliament, which in practice is exercised under the president's direction by presenting regional bill projects.
– According to article 16, the president is responsible for the promulgation of laws approved by the Parliament of the Balearic Islands, ordering their official publication for entry into force.
– She also promulgates and signs decrees and other normative provisions of the Government, which develop laws and regulate matters of regional competence.
– The Statute foresees the possibility that the Government may approve decree-laws in cases of extraordinary and urgent need, within the constitutional framework, which implies the president's direct involvement in their promotion and sanction.

This normative aspect reinforces the president's position as a key figure in defining the regional legal framework.

5. Parliamentary confidence and other key powers

In the area of relations with the Parliament, the Statute details several essential functions:

– Article 18 regulates appointment and dismissal: the president is elected by the Parliament through an investiture procedure and appointed by the King; she ceases, among other cases, due to loss of parliamentary confidence.
– Article 19 establishes the mechanisms of parliamentary confidence, allowing the president to request a vote of confidence on her program or a declaration of general policy; loss of that confidence may lead to her dismissal.
– Article 20 grants the president the power to dissolve the Parliament and call early elections, within the temporal and material limits set by the Statute itself and electoral legislation.

Additionally, article 21 gives her a central role in coordination with the State and other autonomous communities, leading Balearic participation in multilateral cooperation bodies and in negotiating State–Autonomous Community agreements.

6. Overall view

In summary, the Statute of Autonomy configures the president of the Balearic Government as head of the Executive, highest institutional representative, and main vector of relations with the Parliament and the State. Her position combines political powers (government leadership), normative powers (initiative and promulgation of norms), institutional powers (representation and presidency of the Government), and parliamentary powers (management of confidence and calling elections), articulated in articles 15 to 21 of the Statute. This concentration of functions ensures coherence of regional action but always subject to democratic control by the Parliament of the Balearic Islands.

Marga Prohens's political career before leading the Balearic PP

Before being elected president of the People's Party of the Balearic Islands in July 2021, Marga (Margalida) Prohens had developed a long-standing career within the PP, starting in New Generations and then advancing through the Balearic Parliament and the Congress of Deputies. Her career combines organic roots in the youth and territorial structure of the party with parliamentary positions first regional and then national. She had not held executive government positions, but mainly representation and internal leadership roles. This accumulated experience positioned her as the natural successor to lead the Balearic PP at a moment of party renewal.

Beginnings in New Generations and local PP structure

Marga Prohens joined New Generations of the PP, the party's youth organization in the Balearic Islands, at a very young age. According to political and party biographies, between 2005 and 2009 she was president of the Campos section of New Generations and, in parallel, served as executive secretary of local coordination in the Balearic Islands, which placed her at the forefront of the PP's organization at the municipal and regional level on the island of Mallorca.[biographical profile][curriculum biography]

Her projection in the youth organization continued when she became deputy president of New Generations in the Balearic Islands between 2010 and 2012, a position already at the regional level that gave her internal visibility as one of the references of the Balearic PP's youth wing.[career chronicle] In that phase, she was also included in the municipal list of the PP in Campos in 2007, although she did not obtain a councilor seat, showing her first attempt to jump to institutional representation from the local base.[biographical profile]

Deputy in the Parliament of the Balearic Islands

The real jump to institutional politics came with the regional elections of 2011, when she was elected deputy of the Parliament of the Balearic Islands for the PP. She thus entered the VIII legislature of the Parliament and consolidated her role as the party's regional representative.[biographical profile][curriculum biography] According to the sources consulted, she was reelected in 2015, remaining a regional deputy until 2019, which means eight continuous years in the Balearic chamber.

During this period, her activity focused on parliamentary work and articulating the PP's discourse in the Balearic Islands. She was part of the Board of Spokespersons of the Parliament between 2011 and 2015, and served as deputy spokesperson of the popular group, placing her at the forefront of opposition and regional political debate.[career chronicle] Her work focused on defending the PP's agenda in social, economic, and territorial matters, strengthening her profile as a relevant voice of the party in the Balearic Islands.

Projection to national politics: the Congress of Deputies

In 2019, Prohens made the jump to national politics by being elected deputy in the Congress for the Balearic Islands in the general elections of April (XIII Legislature). She was subsequently reelected in the November elections of the same year, already in the XIV Legislature, maintaining her seat until 2023.[political profile][Congress profile]

From the PP bench in Congress, she became one of the main voices of the Balearic organization in Madrid. The biographies consulted indicate that she assumed, among others, responsibilities in equality, reinforcing a profile as a specialized and media-savvy parliamentarian.[curriculum biography][transparency profile] This national stage gave her experience in national political debate and government oversight, experience that would later be an asset for her regional leadership.

Organic rise in the Balearic PP up to the presidency

Alongside her institutional work, Prohens gained organic weight within the Balearic PP. After her years in New Generations and intermediate coordination positions, she consolidated as a reference figure for party renewal in the islands. This internal evolution culminated on July 24, 2021, when she was elected president of the PP of the Balearic Islands, replacing Biel Company and assuming responsibility for steering the popular project towards the 2023 regional elections.[biographical profile][official PP profile]

In summary, her career before leading the Balearic PP follows a clear sequence: New Generations and local structure (2005‑2012), Balearic Parliament (2011‑2019), and Congress of Deputies (2019‑2023), combined with a progressive accumulation of internal party responsibilities. This combination of youth, territorial, regional, and national experience explains why she reached the presidency of the Balearic PP as a leader with inside knowledge of the party and consolidated public visibility.

To complete the current picture of her leadership and weight in the party, coverage of her reelection as president of the Balearic PP in 2026, with 99.93% internal support, can also be consulted at El Demócrata, although that episode is after the period analyzed here.