The social democrats would be the first force with 28.4% in both polls. Democrats of Sweden would fall back compared to 2022, although the studies disagree on their position: they would be third in Valu and second in Novus.
These percentages correspond to polls, not to the official count. The distribution of seats and negotiations between parties will determine what Government can be formed.
What the two polls say at closing
SVT/Valu grants 28.4% to the social democrats, 18.1% to the Moderates, and 17.2% to Democrats of Sweden. They would be followed by Left, with 8%; Center, with 7.5%; Greens, with 7.4%; Christian Democrats, with 6.1%; and Liberals, with 5.4%.
Novus for TV4 keeps the social democrats at 28.4%, but places Democrats of Sweden in second position, with 18.5%, ahead of the 17.5% of the Moderates. Center would reach 9%; Greens, 7%; Left, 6.9%; Christian Democrats, 6%; and Liberals, 5%.
The right would sum 46.8% in Valu and 47% in Novus, compared to 51.3% of the opposition block in both studies.
The far right would lose support compared to 2022
In the previous elections, the social democrats obtained 30.33% of the votes and 107 seats. Democrats of Sweden was second, with 20.54% and 73 deputies, while the Moderates reached 19.10% and 68 representatives.
The polls from tonight would place the three parties below those percentages. The fall of the far right would be approximately 3.3 points in Valu and two points in Novus.
The social democrats would also fall back, but their block could improve thanks to the advance of other forces. In Novus, Center would gain around 2.3 points compared to 2022 and the Greens, 1.9 points.
Sweden Elections 2026: closing polls from SVT and TV4
| Party | SVT / Valu | TV4 / Novus |
|---|---|---|
| Social Democrats (S) | 28.4% | 28.4% |
| Moderates (M) | 18.1% | 17.5% |
| Democrats of Sweden (SD) | 17.2% | 18.5% |
| Left (V) | 8.0% | 6.9% |
| Center (C) | 7.5% | 9.0% |
| Greens (MP) | 7.4% | 7.0% |
| Christian Democrats (KD) | 6.1% | 6.0% |
| Liberals (L) | 5.4% | 5.0% |
| Andersson Block (S + V + MP + C) | 51.3% | 51.3% |
| Kristersson Block (M + SD + KD + L) | 46.8% | 47.0% |
Source: polls from SVT/Valu and Novus for TV4, collected in the SVT live. Estimates released at the closing of the polls on September 13, 2026, not results from the count. The sums by blocks are calculated with the published percentages. Other parties are not included.
When will the projection with counted votes arrive
SVT announces a new projection around 21:15, Spanish mainland time. Unlike the exit polls, it will use the first results of the count and a statistical model that takes into account the electoral behavior of the districts.
This estimate will allow assessing whether the counted votes support the opposition's lead, although it will not be a definitive result either. The Swedish Parliament has 349 seats and the absolute majority is at 175.
The four parties supporting Andersson have differences regarding the composition of a potential Executive. If the counting confirms his lead, they will have to negotiate how to translate those supports into a government formula.