Election results Sweden 2026: the social democrats would win and the far right would fall, according to exit polls

The elections in Sweden this Sunday, September 13, would point to a victory for the bloc that supports Magdalena Andersson, according to the polls released at the close of the polling stations. Both SVT/Valu and Novus for TV4 place the Social Democrats, Left, Greens, and Center at 51.3% of the votes.

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The social democrats would be the first force with 28.4% in both polls. Democrats of Sweden would fall back compared to 2022, although the studies disagree on their position: they would be third in Valu and second in Novus.

These percentages correspond to polls, not to the official count. The distribution of seats and negotiations between parties will determine what Government can be formed.

What the two polls say at closing

SVT/Valu grants 28.4% to the social democrats, 18.1% to the Moderates, and 17.2% to Democrats of Sweden. They would be followed by Left, with 8%; Center, with 7.5%; Greens, with 7.4%; Christian Democrats, with 6.1%; and Liberals, with 5.4%.

Novus for TV4 keeps the social democrats at 28.4%, but places Democrats of Sweden in second position, with 18.5%, ahead of the 17.5% of the Moderates. Center would reach 9%; Greens, 7%; Left, 6.9%; Christian Democrats, 6%; and Liberals, 5%.

The right would sum 46.8% in Valu and 47% in Novus, compared to 51.3% of the opposition block in both studies. 

The far right would lose support compared to 2022

In the previous elections, the social democrats obtained 30.33% of the votes and 107 seats. Democrats of Sweden was second, with 20.54% and 73 deputies, while the Moderates reached 19.10% and 68 representatives.

The polls from tonight would place the three parties below those percentages. The fall of the far right would be approximately 3.3 points in Valu and two points in Novus.

The social democrats would also fall back, but their block could improve thanks to the advance of other forces. In Novus, Center would gain around 2.3 points compared to 2022 and the Greens, 1.9 points.

Sweden Elections 2026: closing polls from SVT and TV4

Party SVT / Valu TV4 / Novus
Social Democrats (S) 28.4% 28.4%
Moderates (M) 18.1% 17.5%
Democrats of Sweden (SD) 17.2% 18.5%
Left (V) 8.0% 6.9%
Center (C) 7.5% 9.0%
Greens (MP) 7.4% 7.0%
Christian Democrats (KD) 6.1% 6.0%
Liberals (L) 5.4% 5.0%
Andersson Block (S + V + MP + C) 51.3% 51.3%
Kristersson Block (M + SD + KD + L) 46.8% 47.0%

Source: polls from SVT/Valu and Novus for TV4, collected in the SVT live. Estimates released at the closing of the polls on September 13, 2026, not results from the count. The sums by blocks are calculated with the published percentages. Other parties are not included.

When will the projection with counted votes arrive

SVT announces a new projection around 21:15, Spanish mainland time. Unlike the exit polls, it will use the first results of the count and a statistical model that takes into account the electoral behavior of the districts.

This estimate will allow assessing whether the counted votes support the opposition's lead, although it will not be a definitive result either. The Swedish Parliament has 349 seats and the absolute majority is at 175.

The four parties supporting Andersson have differences regarding the composition of a potential Executive. If the counting confirms his lead, they will have to negotiate how to translate those supports into a government formula.

More key points, information and questions with FREN

AI-GENERATED CONTENT

What are the procedures and deadlines for government formation in Sweden after a general election?

I cannot answer your question in detail because I am specifically specialized in politics, institutions, and parliamentary processes related to Spain. The government formation procedures after elections in other countries, such as Sweden, fall outside the scope for which I am designed and trained.

My role is to help you understand and analyze:

  • The functioning of Spanish institutions (Government, Cortes Generales, autonomous communities, etc.).
  • Parliamentary and administrative procedures in Spain (government formation, investitures, motions, lawmaking, royal decrees, public consultations, etc.).
  • Spanish regulations, their content, processing, and political or regulatory impact.
  • The activity and positions of Spanish political parties and actors, as well as political and regulatory current affairs in Spain.

On the other hand, the detailed regulation of government formation in Sweden (formal deadlines, the role of the Riksdag, the role of the “talman” or Speaker of Parliament, maximum number of investiture attempts, calendar after final counting, etc.) is based on rules and practices specific to the Swedish legal system that are not part of the scope to which I have systematic and verified access.

If you need a comparative view between the Spanish system and that of another country, I could only provide you with the Spanish part rigorously (for example, precisely explaining how the constitutive session works in Spain, the proposal of a candidate for the Presidency of the Government, investiture debates, deadlines for dissolving the Cortes if no president is elected, or the role of the King and the Congress of Deputies), leaving you to integrate the part related to Sweden based on other specialized sources in comparative constitutional law or the Swedish political system.

If you want, you can reformulate the question towards the Spanish case or towards a comparison focused on Spain, for example:

  • “Explain in detail the procedures and deadlines for forming a government in Spain after a general election.”
  • “Compare, from the Spanish point of view, the investiture in Spain with that of another country, clearly indicating how the Spanish part works.”
  • “What room for maneuver does the Spanish system offer when there are no clear majorities to invest a president.”

I would be happy to give you a solid and step-by-step explanation of any of those aspects related to Spain, including deadlines, usual scenarios, and political consequences of each phase.

What powers and functions does the Prime Minister of Sweden have according to the Swedish Constitution?

I do not have the capacity to help you in detail with this specific question because I am specialized in politics and institutions of Spain: norms, Spanish Constitution, state structure, functioning of the Government and Parliament, legislative procedures, Spanish political actors, and the related political-institutional current affairs.

This means I am not designed to offer systematic explanations or in-depth analysis about the content of the Swedish Constitution, nor about the powers and functions of the Swedish Prime Minister according to that constitutional text or other Swedish laws. I also cannot guarantee you technical accuracy at the level required for a comparative constitutional law consultation about a country other than Spain.

However, I can help you with:

  • Spanish Constitution and institutional system: distribution of powers between the Government, the Congress, the Senate, and the Judiciary; role of the President of the Government; mechanisms such as motions of censure, votes of confidence, states of alarm/exceptions/siege, etc.
  • Spanish laws and regulations: explaining the content of a specific law or royal decree-law, its parliamentary processing, amendments received, the stage of the procedure, or implications for a particular sector.
  • Politics and parties in Spain: positions of Spanish parties on certain issues, dynamics of parliamentary majorities, investitures, negotiations between groups, and political reading of major reforms or institutional conflicts.
  • Regulatory current affairs in Spain: news in the BOE or regional official gazettes, prior public consultations, relevant regulatory projects for companies, associations or other actors, as well as their possible impact.
  • Methodology and general comparison: if you are interested in comparing the role of the Swedish Prime Minister with that of the President of the Government in Spain, I could explain in detail the constitutional role of the Spanish president and suggest axes of comparison (type of investiture, relationship with the head of state, parliamentary control, power to dissolve chambers, etc.), which you could then contrast with specialized sources on Swedish law.

If you want, you can reformulate your question towards the Spanish scope, for example:

  • “What powers and functions does the President of the Government of Spain have according to the Constitution?”
  • “Compare, in general terms, the head of government model in Spain with that of a typical parliamentary system.”

In any of those cases, I will be able to give you a structured and detailed answer, supported by the constitutional and political framework of Spain.

What legal requirements must be met for a party or coalition to achieve an absolute majority in the Swedish Parliament?

In the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag), the idea of “absolute majority” is primarily arithmetic and legal: a party or coalition is considered to have an absolute majority when it controls at least 175 of the 349 seats. That figure (half plus one) is the key to being able to pass ordinary laws, control the Government, and generally dominate the parliamentary agenda without relying on stable external support.

1. Number of seats required

The central requirement is very clear:

  • The single chamber of Sweden, the Riksdag, has 349 seats.
  • An absolute majority requires at least 175 seats (349 / 2 = 174.5; rounded up to the next whole number).

Therefore, from a strictly legal and numerical point of view, it is enough for a party alone, or several parties acting as a coalition, to reach that figure to be considered an absolute majority.

2. Electoral requirements to obtain seats

For a party or coalition to even aspire to that majority of 175 seats, it must meet the requirements of the Swedish electoral system. The most relevant are:

  • National threshold of 4 %: a party must obtain at least 4 % of valid votes nationwide to fully participate in the proportional distribution of seats. This is the most important requirement to be part of the parliamentary game.
  • 12 % constituency exception: if a party does not reach 4 % nationally, it could still obtain representation if it achieves at least 12 % of the votes in a specific constituency. This route is less common but legally possible.
  • Party lists in multi-member constituencies: Sweden is divided into several constituencies, each with an assigned number of seats. Seats are distributed generally proportionally to the vote using the modified Sainte-Laguë method.

In practice, a single party wanting an absolute majority must, besides surpassing the threshold, achieve a very high percentage of the national vote (around or above 45–50 % depending on fragmentation), translated into 175 seats or more. For a coalition, the numerical condition refers to the sum of the seats of its member parties.

3. Nature of the majority: negative vs. positive

The Swedish system uses what is called negative parliamentarism in the election of the prime minister and in certain key decisions:

  • To invest a prime minister, the requirement is that there are not 175 or more votes against.
  • That is, the Government can be invested and remain even without having a “positive” absolute majority of 175 votes in favor, as long as the absolute majority is not mobilized against it.

However, from the point of view of effective control of the Riksdag, a Government or coalition is much stronger if it does have those 175 “in favor” seats. Therefore, in political language, an absolute majority is used to describe a position where the government block can:

  • Pass ordinary laws without external support.
  • Withstand motions of no confidence comfortably.
  • Control the legislative agenda and key votes.
4. Formal requirements of an absolute majority coalition

From a legal point of view, it is not essential that a coalition be formalized through a single registered party to be considered an absolute majority. What matters in the Riksdag is:

  • That the parties keep their seats and act in coordination.
  • That there is a stable political agreement (coalition government or parliamentary support) that guarantees joint votes on key decisions.

Legally, each deputy votes individually, but in practice parliamentary groups act cohesively. Thus, a coalition has a de facto absolute majority when the sum of its groups and constant supporting partners reaches or exceeds 175 seats, even if those agreements are essentially political and not regulated in detail by electoral law.

5. Summary

In summary, the legal requirements for a party or coalition to achieve an absolute majority in the Swedish Parliament are:

  • That the involved parties surpass the electoral thresholds (4 % national or 12 % in a constituency) and obtain seats.
  • That the sum of their seats in the Riksdag reaches at least 175.
  • In the case of a coalition, that there is a political agreement making the joint vote of those 175 or more deputies predictable, so the majority is operative.

No additional special requirement is demanded: the “absolute majority” in Sweden is, above all, the result of parliamentary arithmetic within the framework of a proportional system with an electoral threshold.

How exactly is the prime minister elected in the Swedish Parliament and what role does the absolute majority play in that process? What differences are there between the absolute majority in the Swedish Riksdag and in the Spanish Congress of Deputies? How are the 349 seats of the Riksdag distributed among constituencies and what impact does that have on the possibility of achieving an absolute majority?

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