The left wing located to the left of the PSOE would improve its result in seats if it ran united in the next general elections, but that unity would not be enough to re-establish an alternative majority against PP and Vox.
That is the common conclusion of two simulations published by La Razón and El Español based on polls from NC Report and SocioMétrica. Both analyze what would happen if Sumar, Podemos, and other left-wing forces tried to recompose the space before the next general elections.
La Razón, together with NC Report, proposes several coalition scenarios. The broadest one - Sumar, Podemos, ERC, EH Bildu, and BNG - would go from a range of 25-27 seats separately to between 34 and 38 deputies if they ran together.
El Español, with SocioMétrica, analyzes a more concrete hypothesis: a candidacy headed by Gabriel Rufián along with Sumar and Podemos. That platform would achieve 37 seats, but would not prevent PP and Vox from retaining a broad absolute majority with 195 deputies.
Unity improves the result, but does not change the majority
Both polls point in the same direction: fragmentation penalizes the left and unity improves its translation into seats.
The reason lies in the electoral system. In many small and medium-sized provinces, running divided can leave candidacies that do accumulate enough votes nationally out of the distribution. A joint list concentrates support, better overcomes effective thresholds, and competes with more options for the last seats.
But the improvement is not enough to change the winning bloc. In both the NC Report simulation and the SocioMétrica one, PP and Vox would remain above the absolute majority.
La Razón's scenario: up to 38 seats if Sumar, Podemos, ERC, EH Bildu, and BNG unite
La Razón's analysis with NC Report starts from a scenario without broad agreement.
In that hypothesis, Sumar would obtain between 8 and 10 seats, ERC would remain at 7, EH Bildu at 6, Podemos between 2 and 3, and BNG would rise to 2. In total, the space would add between 25 and 27 deputies and 13.9% of the votes.
The situation changes if a broad coalition occurs between Sumar, Podemos, ERC, EH Bildu, and BNG. With the same votes, that bloc would move to a range of between 34 and 38 seats.
The gain would be between 7 and 13 deputies just for running together.
Sumar and Podemos together would already improve the distribution
La Razón also analyzes an intermediate scenario: that Sumar and Podemos run together again, but without integrating ERC, EH Bildu, and BNG.
In that case, the sum of Sumar and Podemos would go from the 10-13 seats they would obtain separately to a range of between 18 and 20 deputies.
The improvement would be significant, although still far from the 31 seats achieved by Sumar in the general elections of 2023, when Podemos ran within the coalition.
That scenario would also have an effect on PP and Vox: the union of Sumar and Podemos could subtract between 3 and 11 deputies from the right-wing bloc, according to the simulation.
The “Rufián operation” would reach 37 seats
The simulation published by El Español with SocioMétrica gives a proper name to a different hypothesis: a candidacy headed by Gabriel Rufián along with Sumar and Podemos.
According to that poll, the so-called “Rufián operation” would obtain 13.3% of the votes and 37 seats in Congress. It would be the fourth national force, behind PP, PSOE, and Vox.
The platform would absorb the 10 deputies that Sumar and Podemos would currently add separately, but it would also obtain seats from other spaces: 14 would come from PSOE, 10 from PP and Vox, and 3 from ERC and Junts.
PSOE would be the main victim in SocioMétrica's hypothesis
The big difference between the two approaches is the impact on PSOE. In SocioMétrica's simulation, Rufián's candidacy would reorder the left-wing space, but it would do so at the cost of weakening PSOE. The socialists would go from 103 deputies in the base scenario to 89 seats.
That result would place PSOE at its second-worst performance in democracy, only above the 85 seats obtained in 2016.
The reading is clear: a strong left-wing candidacy could improve the performance of the alternative space, but it would also absorb socialist votes and reduce the parliamentary weight of PSOE.
PP and Vox would continue with an absolute majority
The political key is that neither of the two simulations allows for an alternative majority.
In the SocioMétrica scenario published by El Español, PP and Vox would decrease compared to the scenario without Rufián's candidacy, but they would continue to add up to 195 seats.
The PP would go from 147 to 141 deputies, and Vox from 58 to 54. Together they would lose 10 seats, but they would continue to be 19 above the absolute majority.
The left gains efficiency, not a majority
The common point between La Razón and El Español is that the left would gain electoral efficiency if it reduces its fragmentation.
A united space can dispute the last seats in provinces where several separate candidacies fall below the practical threshold. It can also improve its position as the fourth force and prevent EH Bildu, Sumar, or Podemos from competing with each other for a reduced space.
But that efficiency does not compensate for the PSOE's decline or the accumulated advantage of PP and Vox.
The dilemma for Sumar and Podemos
For Sumar and Podemos, the simulations leave an uncomfortable conclusion: separated they lose strength; together they improve, but do not recover the level of 23J.
La Razón calculates that a joint candidacy of Sumar and Podemos would reach between 18 and 20 seats. El Español, in its hypothesis of a platform with Rufián, raises the space to 37 deputies, but with a much broader structure and with effects on the PSOE, ERC, and Junts.
The political problem is that the most effective formula in terms of seats may also be the most difficult to agree upon.
ERC, EH Bildu, and BNG do not have the same incentive
The hypothesis of a grand left-wing coalition with sovereigntist parties faces obvious obstacles.
ERC, EH Bildu, and BNG are strong forces in their territories and have their own incentives to maintain their brand, political profile, and parliamentary autonomy.
Furthermore, integrating state and sovereigntist forces into a single platform would require resolving very sensitive programmatic issues, such as the right to self-determination, the relationship with the PSOE, or the investiture strategy.
Rufián turns the debate into a question of leadership
Gabriel Rufián's hypothesis adds a new element: leadership.
It is not just about whether Sumar and Podemos should run together. The operation proposed by SocioMétrica imagines a platform with a recognizable face, the ability to attract sovereigntist votes, and the ambition to occupy the space of the alternative left.
That move could mobilize abstentionists and concentrate dispersed votes. But it would also strain the PSOE, ERC, and the rest of the territorial forces.
The PSOE is caught between two risks
For the PSOE, the dilemma is complex.
If Sumar, Podemos, and the rest of the space run divided, the progressive bloc loses seats due to fragmentation and PP and Vox benefit from the distribution.
But if a strong unitary candidacy emerges to its left, the PSOE may lose even more deputies due to direct vote transfer.
SocioMétrica's simulation is particularly harsh on that point: the Rufián operation would raise the new bloc to 37 seats, but would leave the PSOE at 89.
Comparison of the two surveys
La Razón and El Español do not measure exactly the same thing, but they do describe the same underlying problem.
La Razón analyzes the mechanical effect of different coalitions on the distribution of seats. Its conclusion is that Sumar, Podemos, ERC, EH Bildu, and BNG could gain between 7 and 13 deputies if they ran together.
El Español measures a specific political hypothesis: a platform led by Rufián along with Sumar and Podemos. Its conclusion is that it would achieve 37 seats, but would not prevent an absolute majority for PP and Vox.
The shared idea is clear: the left can improve if it unites, but the deterioration of the PSOE and the advantage of the PP-Vox bloc remain too great.
Scenarios of left-wing unity
| Source | Scenario analyzed | Estimated result | Main effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Razón / NC Report | Sumar, Podemos, ERC, EH Bildu, and BNG separately | 25-27 seats | Fragmentation of the space to the left of the PSOE |
| La Razón / NC Report | Sumar + Podemos together | 18-20 seats | Improvement compared to running separately |
| La Razón / NC Report | Sumar + Podemos + ERC + EH Bildu + BNG | 34-38 seats | Gain of 7 to 13 deputies due to vote concentration |
| El Español / SocioMétrica | "Operación Rufián" with Sumar and Podemos | 37 seats | Fourth national force, but without preventing a majority for PP and Vox |
Impact of the "Operación Rufián" according to SocioMétrica
| Indicator | Data |
|---|---|
| Estimated vote for the candidacy | 13.3% |
| Estimated seats | 37 |
| Seats that would come from the PSOE | 14 |
| Seats that would come from PP and Vox | 10 |
| Seats that would come from ERC and Junts | 3 |
| PSOE's result in that scenario | 89 seats |
| Combined result of PP and Vox | 195 seats |