General elections poll: PSOE loses eight seats in one month and the right reaches 200 deputies, according to Sigma Dos

After a survey or poll that leads the Prime Minister to consider an early election, the formal steps do not depend on the survey itself, but on what is established by the Constitution and the Organic Law of the General Electoral Regime (LOREG). Only the Prime Minister can propose the dissolution of the Cortes to the King, and must do so respecting temporal and material limits. Once the royal decree of dissolution and call is signed and published, a fixed calendar (up to 54 days) is activated culminating on the voting day. During this entire period, the Cortes are dissolved and the Government remains in office until the formation of the new Executive.

1. Who decides the early election

The power to dissolve the Congress of Deputies and the Senate and, therefore, to call early general elections politically corresponds to the Prime Minister. It is the Prime Minister who, in view of the political situation (fragile majority, internal crisis, unfavorable or favorable polls, parliamentary deadlock, etc.), decides whether to propose to the King the dissolution of the Cortes.

Surveys or polls have no direct legal effect: they do not automatically generate any procedure. They are an element of political calculation that can lead the Prime Minister to use a prerogative already recognized by the Constitution.

2. Limits and conditions to be able to dissolve

This decision is not completely free in temporal terms: it is conditioned by several constitutional and legal rules. Generally and theoretically, the most relevant limits are:

a) Moment of the legislature. The Congress cannot be dissolved "in chain" nor arbitrarily: there are restrictions linked to the start of the legislature and exceptional situations such as a failed investiture. In the latter case, if within two months from the first investiture vote no candidate is elected, the King himself must dissolve the Chambers and call elections.

b) Conflict with other procedures. The power to dissolve is limited if there is a motion of censure presented or in process: while that motion is being discussed, the Prime Minister cannot avoid it by dissolving the Cortes.

c) Maximum term until elections. Once the dissolution is signed, elections must be held within a maximum period of 54 days from the publication of the royal decree in the BOE, according to the LOREG.

3. Royal decree of dissolution and call

If the Prime Minister decides to anticipate elections, the formal steps are always the same, regardless of whether the political trigger was polls:

1) The Prime Minister communicates his decision to the King and proposes the dissolution of the Congress and the Senate and the call for general elections.
2) The King, exercising his constitutional function, signs the Royal Decree that declares the Chambers dissolved and sets the date of the elections.
3) The Royal Decree is published in the Official State Gazette (BOE). This publication is the legal starting point of the electoral process and the counting of deadlines.

4. Electoral calendar from the decree

From the publication of the decree until the vote, a fixed electoral calendar is opened by the LOREG:

Start of the electoral process: coincides with the publication of the dissolution and call decree.
Configuration of candidacies: in the first days, the candidacies of parties, coalitions, and groups of voters are presented and proclaimed, with the deadlines that the LOREG details for presentation, correction, and final proclamation.
Electoral campaign: begins 15 days before the voting day and lasts those full 15 days, during which electoral acts and propaganda are allowed under the usual rules (free spaces in public media, spending limits, polls, etc.).
Reflection day: the day immediately before the vote, campaigning and dissemination of electoral propaganda are prohibited.
Election day: the vote is held within the maximum period of 54 days from the publication of the decree, with the specific date set in the royal decree itself.

5. What happens to the Government and the Cortes after dissolution

Once the dissolution and call are published, the institutional framework changes clearly:

Cortes Generales: the Congress and the Senate are dissolved, cease to meet, and their members lose their status as deputies and senators. No new laws can be processed nor can the Government be controlled in the ordinary formats (questions, interpellations, commissions, etc.).
Government: the Executive continues in acting capacity from dissolution until the swearing-in of a new Government. During this period it must limit itself to ordinary management, without making major political direction decisions except in justified cases of urgency or general interest.

After the elections, the results are proclaimed, the new Congress and Senate are constituted, and the investiture process is reopened. Only when the candidate proposed by the King is invested by the Congress and swears or promises the office does the previous acting Government cease and the new legislature begin.

The Prime Minister is the highest authority of the executive power in Spain and the center of gravity of the parliamentary system: he directs general policy, coordinates the Council of Ministers, is politically accountable to the Congress, and acts as the main institutional face of the Government both domestically and abroad. His powers derive mainly from the 1978 Constitution (especially articles 97, 98, 99, and 112-114) and the laws that develop it. In practice, he concentrates the political initiative of the State and articulates the relationship between the Crown, Cortes, and Administration. Below, his functions are broken down into major blocks to better understand his role.

1. Political functions and Executive leadership

The essential function of the Prime Minister is the direction of the Government's general policy and the coordination of the action of all ministers. This involves setting the priorities of the government program, deciding the legislative agenda, and marking the major lines of economic, social, territorial, or foreign policy.

Regarding the formation and organization of the Government, the Prime Minister proposes to the King the appointment and dismissal of ministers, can restructure portfolios, create or suppress ministries, and designate the main figures of the Executive (vice presidencies, spokesperson, etc.). In this way, he configures the political and technical team that will execute his strategic lines.

The Prime Minister convenes and presides over the Council of Ministers, where the most relevant collegiate decisions are made: bills, royal decrees, royal decree-laws, appointments of senior officials, strategic plans, among others. From this position, he orders debates, prioritizes topics, and seeks internal cohesion of the Executive.

2. Normative powers and legislative impetus

In the legal-political sphere, the Prime Minister promotes the drafting of bills that the Government submits to the Cortes Generales. Through them, he channels his reform program and shapes the regulatory framework in key areas (budgets, labor reform, pension system, etc.).

In situations of extraordinary and urgent need, the Government can approve royal decree-laws, which are also usually promoted and politically explained by the Prime Minister, although formally it is a competence of the Council of Ministers as a whole. These royal decree-laws must be subsequently ratified by the Congress.

Additionally, the Prime Minister coordinates the approval of royal decrees that develop laws and organizes the normative action of the ministries to ensure coherence with the Executive's priorities.

3. Internal and external representation functions

Domestically, the Prime Minister exercises the institutional representation of the Government before other State institutions (Cortes Generales, autonomous communities, constitutional bodies) and before public opinion. He is the central figure in major national debates and in governmental political communication.

Internationally, he directs the Government's foreign policy (in coordination with the Minister of Foreign Affairs) and represents Spain in European councils, international summits, and official visits. Although the Head of State corresponds to the King, the Prime Minister is the one who negotiates agreements, participates in EU and G-20 meetings, and sets the Executive's positions on foreign relations.

4. Relationship with the Cortes Generales

The Prime Minister is subject to intense parliamentary responsibility. To access office, he must obtain the confidence of the Congress in the investiture procedure. Once elected, he can be subject to a motion of censure, which if successful entails his dismissal and the automatic election of a new Prime Minister.

He can also raise a vote of confidence to check the Chamber's support for his program or a relevant decision; losing it requires his resignation. Ordinarily, the Prime Minister appears in the Plenary, answers questions and interpellations, and explains government action (for example, in debates on the state of the nation or on specific measures).

Procedurally, the Prime Minister can request urgent processing of projects or initiatives and, through the Council of Ministers, submit legislative texts to the Cortes, thus influencing the sequence and pace of parliamentary work.

5. Relationship with the Crown and other constitutional bodies

In the relationship with the Crown, the Prime Minister is the King's main political interlocutor. He regularly informs him of State affairs, proposes the appointment and dismissal of ministers, and endorses many of the monarch's acts (such as the appointment of senior State officials or the call for elections), which gives legal validity to those acts.

Additionally, the Prime Minister participates in the proposal or appointment of holders of other constitutional bodies (such as the Constitutional Court or the Court of Auditors) through the established procedures, reinforcing his role as coordinator of the entire executive power and its interaction with the other branches of the State.

6. Political responsibility and limits

Although the Prime Minister concentrates broad powers, his power is subject to checks and balances. He depends on the confidence of the Congress, is subject to the ordinary political control of the Cortes, and his decisions can be reviewed by the courts, especially by the Constitutional Court, if they affect fundamental rights or the distribution of powers.

In summary, the Prime Minister articulates and leads the Executive's action, concentrates political initiative, and acts as a vertex between the Crown, Parliament, Administration, and the international community, but always within the framework of parliamentary responsibility and legal control typical of a parliamentary system like Spain's.

General seat distribution in the July 2023 elections

In the Spanish general elections of July 23, 2023, the Congress of Deputies was very fragmented, with no party reaching the absolute majority of 176 seats. The Popular Party (PP) was the force with the most deputies, but the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) resisted better than expected and maintained government options thanks to nationalist and separatist partners. Vox lost ground compared to 2019 and Sumar, as a new alternative left coalition, emerged as the fourth force. Nationalist and regionalist parties were again decisive for governability.

Seat distribution by nationwide parties

In terms of nationwide parties, the distribution of the 350 seats was as follows:

Popular Party (PP): obtained 137 seats. It positioned itself as the first force in seats and votes, channeling most of the center-right and right vote. Despite this relative victory, it was far from the absolute majority and depended on Vox and nationalist formations to attempt an investiture, which ultimately did not succeed.

Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE): secured 121 seats. Although it came in second, the result was better than anticipated by most polls, allowing Pedro Sánchez to propose a government alternative based on agreements with Sumar and various nationalist and separatist parties, preserving a progressive bloc similar to the previous legislature.

Vox: reached 33 seats. This represented a setback compared to the November 2019 elections, when it had been the third force with a much larger parliamentary group. The loss of representation limited its ability to influence government formation at the state level, although it remained a priority partner of the PP in several autonomous communities and municipalities.

Sumar: the new alternative left platform, which grouped several forces (including the space previously occupied by Unidas Podemos), achieved 31 seats. It thus became the essential partner of the PSOE to articulate a progressive majority. From a parliamentary point of view, this gave it the capacity to influence the legislative agenda, both in social and economic matters.

Nationalist and regionalist parties

Nationalist and regionalist parties obtained a sufficient number of seats to be decisive in the formation of majorities, especially in Pedro Sánchez's investiture bloc:

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC): obtained 7 seats. Although it suffered a setback compared to 2019, it maintained a group with enough weight to influence key negotiations, especially regarding the Catalan agenda and territorial policy.

Junts per Catalunya (Junts): secured 7 seats. Its role was decisive in Sánchez's investiture, since, with a very tight result in the Chamber, Junts' support or abstention became essential for government formation.

EH Bildu: reached 6 seats. It consolidated its presence in the Congress and strengthened its position as a key actor within the progressive bloc, especially regarding social policies and democratic memory.

Basque Nationalist Party (PNV): achieved 5 seats. Although it lost some numerical weight, it remained a traditionally relevant partner in State governability, with high negotiating capacity in fiscal, infrastructure, and self-government issues.

Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG): obtained 1 seat, confirming its Galician representation in the Congress and reinforcing its role as an allied actor of the progressive bloc in certain votes.

Other formations with representation

Besides the parties mentioned, there were other formations with seats, although with more limited presence:

Canarian Coalition (CCa): achieved 1 seat. Its vote was subject to punctual negotiation by both the right-wing bloc and the progressive bloc, given the tight parliamentary arithmetic. As usual, its strategy focused on defending the specific interests of the Canary Islands.

Navarrese People's Union (UPN): maintained 1 seat, traditionally framed in the center-right space and aligned with the PP in the Congress. Its numerical weight is modest, but in such a tight Chamber each individual vote gains relevance in key votes.

Resulting balances and political consequences

Overall, the sum of PP and Vox did not reach the absolute majority, while the bloc articulated around PSOE and Sumar, together with ERC, Junts, Bildu, PNV, BNG, CCa, and UPN (depending on each vote), configured a very tight arithmetic where each seat was decisive. This distribution of forces led to a legislature marked by the need for constant pacts, both for investiture and for the approval of key laws, budgets, and structural reforms. The fragmentation highlighted the central role of territorial parties in contemporary Spanish politics and consolidated a system of blocs where negotiation and coalition are essential for governability.