The Ceuta crisis does not change who would win a general election according to Hamalgama Métrica, but it does modify the distribution of forces that existed before the summer. The PP remains in first position practically at the same level, while Vox expands its representation and the PSOE loses three deputies compared to the last survey by the same company conducted before July 30.
The new Hamalgama barometer for Vozpópuli, conducted between September 1 and 8 through 1,000 interviews, places the PP at 33.6% and 145 deputies, the PSOE at 25.1% and 101, and Vox at 19.3% and 67 seats. Sumar would obtain 5.6% and seven representatives and Podemos, 3.8% and three. Thus, PP and Vox would total 212 deputies, 36 above the 176 that mark the absolute majority.
The relevant comparison to measure the Ceuta period is in the Hamalgama survey published on July 12, whose fieldwork was conducted between June 30 and July 6. At that time, the PP was at 33.8% and 146 seats, the PSOE at 25.9% and 104, Vox at 18.8% and 63, Sumar at 5.9% and seven, and Podemos at 3.8% and three. It is, therefore, a clean reference of the scenario immediately prior to the crisis.
The cost in seats since before Ceuta: Vox +4, PSOE -3 and PP -1
If that July survey is taken as a starting point, Vox is the party that shows the greatest advance during the period marked by Ceuta.
The formation of Santiago Abascal goes from 63 to 67 deputies. That is four more in just over two months. In percentage of vote, the growth is half a point, from 18.8% to 19.3%.
The PSOE registers the main setback. It goes from 104 to 101 seats and from 25.9% to 25.1%. That is three deputies and eight tenths less than before the summer.
The PP remains practically motionless. It drops from 33.8% to 33.6% and from 146 to 145 deputies. The loss is two tenths and one representative.
Sumar also does not experience a parliamentary change: it maintains its seven deputies, although it drops from 5.9% to 5.6%. Podemos exactly repeats its three seats and 3.8%.
The picture is, therefore, much more nuanced than a simple movement from left to right. The PP does not capitalize on the crisis in this series and even slightly yields. The growth is concentrated in Vox, while the deterioration within the left occurs fundamentally in the PSOE and, in percentage of vote, also in Sumar.
PP and Vox go from 209 to 212 seats
The effect is better appreciated when observing the blocks.
Before Ceuta, Hamalgama granted the PP 146 deputies and Vox 63. Together they were 209.
Now the PP obtains 145 and Vox 67. The sum reaches 212.
That is, the loss of one deputy from the PP is more than compensated by the four that Vox incorporates and the joint majority grows by three representatives.
In percentage, the movement seems much smaller: PP and Vox go from 52.6% to 52.9%, only three tenths more.
It is a good demonstration of how the Spanish electoral system works. Relatively small variations in national percentage can have a greater effect on Congress depending on where they occur and who takes the last provincial seats.
The state left loses three deputies since July
The opposite movement occurs in PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos.
In July they had 114 seats: 104 from PSOE, seven from Sumar, and three from Podemos.
Now they would total 111: 101, seven, and three, respectively.
In percentage, the overall setback is somewhat greater. The three parties went from 35.6% in July to the current 34.5%, a loss of 1.1 points.
The distance from PP and Vox thus increases from 17 points in July to 18.4 now.
In Congress, the difference between both groups goes from 95 to 101 seats.
This is probably the clearest measure of the change that occurred during the period: the PP-Vox majority does not arise with Ceuta, because it was already very broad before the crisis, but since then its advantage increases by another six deputies over PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos.
Vox is the one who really alters the arithmetic
The PP would continue to win the elections, but its result barely changes.
In July it had 146 seats and now 145. Against the 23J it improves from 137 to 145, but in percentage the movement is small: from the 33.1% obtained at the polls to the current 33.6%.
Vox presents a completely different evolution.
It obtained 33 deputies in the 2023 general elections. In July, Hamalgama already placed it at 63. Now it reaches 67.
Since the 23J it has gained 34 deputies.
In percentage it goes from 12.4% to 19.3%, an increase of 6.9 points. Compared to the previous survey, it adds half a point and four representatives.
That is why the new majority of 212 seats does not come from a great expansion of the PP. The structural change of the legislature is that Vox practically doubles its parliamentary weight while Feijóo remains close to its electoral result of 2023.
PSOE loses 20 seats since the 23J
The socialist evolution offers the reverse image.
The PSOE obtained 31.7% of the votes and 121 deputies in the last general elections. Hamalgama now places it at 25.1% and 101.
That is 6.6 points and 20 seats less.
But it is advisable to separate that accumulated deterioration from the specific movement observed during the summer.
Before Ceuta, the PSOE was already at 25.9% and 104 deputies. That is to say, a good part of the decline since 2023 had already occurred.
What happens afterwards is an additional deterioration: eight tenths and three seats.
This nuance allows counting the effect of Ceuta without attributing losses that are prior to the crisis. The PSOE loses fidelity and increases abstention among its former voters.
The transfer matrix helps to better understand those three lost seats.
In July, the PSOE retained 72.5% of those who had voted for it in 2023. Now fidelity drops to 70.5%.
That is two points less.
The transfer to the PP remains practically stable: it was 10.8% and now it is 10.5%.
In contrast, the flight to Vox slightly increases, from 4.2% to 4.7%.
And the demobilization grows more clearly. In July, 8.2% of former socialist voters were going to abstention. Now 9.6% do.
The comparison suggests that the recent deterioration of the PSOE does not fundamentally come from a new massive transfer to the PP. There are two more visible movements: a small increase in the transfer to Vox and, above all, greater demobilization.
In the new survey, 45% of those who voted in 2023 but now say they would abstain come from the PSOE. Another 36.6% had voted for Sumar.
Vox retains 93% of its voters and also receives from the PP and the PSOE
Vox presents the most solid electoral structure in the survey.
93.1% of those who voted for the party in the general elections of 2023 say they would repeat now.
In addition, it receives 12.2% of former PP voters and 4.7% of PSOE voters.
The PP also maintains high fidelity, at 85.2%, and attracts 10.5% of the socialist electorate.
The difference is that the PP-Vox exchange clearly favors Abascal's party, while the popular party compensates part of that flight by capturing votes from the PSOE.
It is that double movement that allows the PP to remain practically stable and that, at the same time, Vox continues to grow.
Sumar retains seven deputies, but its base remains very fragmented
Sumar does not lose seats compared to July. It had seven and maintains seven.
In percentage, it does retreat three tenths, from 5.9% to 5.6%.
The problem lies more in the structure of its electorate than in the last monthly movement. Only 32.8% of those who voted for the Sumar candidacy in 2023 claim they would do so again.
25.9% would now opt for Podemos, 20% would abstain, and 13.3% would vote for the PSOE.
Podemos, for its part, maintains 3.8% and three seats compared to July.
Between Sumar and Podemos, they would currently obtain 10 deputies.
In 2023, they ran together and achieved 31.
The accumulated loss is, therefore, 21 seats, although it cannot be directly attributed to Sumar alone because Podemos was then part of the same candidacy.
From 23J to now: the right gains 42 seats and the state left loses 41
The complete comparison with the last elections shows the size of the transformation.
PP and Vox obtained 170 deputies in 2023: 137 and 33.
Now they would have 212: 145 and 67.
That's 42 more seats.
PSOE and the unitary candidacy of Sumar achieved 152: 121 and 31.
Now PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos would total 111.
That's 41 deputies less.
The difference between both groups was 18 seats after 23J.
Now it would be 101.
Abstention is part of the explanation
Hamalgama estimates a participation of 64.7%.
In the general elections of 2023, it was approximately 66.6%.
The difference is around two points and would equate to nearly a million additional voters who would not go to the polls, according to the calculation published by Vozpópuli.
But abstention does not affect symmetrically.
The survey indicates that 45% of the voters from 2023 who would now abstain come from the PSOE and 36.6% from Sumar. Former voters of the PP represent 9.8% of that pool and those of Vox only 2.5%.
This helps explain why the right increases its advantage even when the PP hardly grows.
Hamalgama Survey: current result, before Ceuta and comparison with 23J
The comparison with the last Hamalgama survey prior to the Ceuta crisis shows that Vox gains four seats, the PSOE loses three, and the PP gives up one. PP and Vox go from 209 to 212 deputies.
| Party | September | July, before Ceuta | Change after Ceuta | 23J | Change vs. 23J |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 33.6% · 145 | 33.8% · 146 | -0.2 points · -1 seat | 33.1% · 137 | +0.5 points · +8 seats |
| PSOE | 25.1% · 101 | 25.9% · 104 | -0.8 points · -3 seats | 31.7% · 121 | -6.6 points · -20 seats |
| Vox | 19.3% · 67 | 18.8% · 63 | +0.5 points · +4 seats | 12.4% · 33 | +6.9 points · +34 seats |
| Sumar | 5.6% · 7 | 5.9% · 7 | -0.3 points · no changes | 12.3% · 31 together with Podemos | See note |
| Podemos | 3.8% · 3 | 3.8% · 3 | No changes | Integrated in Sumar | See note |
In 2023 Podemos participated integrated in Sumar. Comparing both forces together, they go from 12.3% and 31 deputies from 23J to 9.4% and 10 current seats: 2.9 points and 21 deputies less.