General elections survey: after Ceuta, PP and Vox exceed 50% for the first time and the left falls to 36.1%, according to 40dB

As of today, according to the official register of initiatives of the Cortes Generales, there is no reform in process that specifically modifies the rules of allocation of seats in the Congress of Deputies (number of seats per constituency, distribution formula, state electoral threshold, etc.). What does exist is a set of reforms of the LOREG and electoral regulations that affect other aspects of the system, with different parliamentary statuses.

1. LOREG reforms currently in process

In the XV legislature there are, at least, two relevant organic initiatives on Organic Law 5/1985, of the General Electoral Regime, that are open, but none of them alters the distribution of seats in the Congress among constituencies nor the allocation formula:

• Organic Bill modifying the LOREG (121/000063)
  It comes from the Government of Spain and is processed in the Congress of Deputies as an organic bill. Its main purpose, according to the text published on 07/24/2025, is to strengthen the regulation of electoral debates in public media and electoral polls (articles such as 66 and 69 of the LOREG), in order to guarantee pluralism, transparency, and adequate information to the electorate.
  The latest parliamentary status recorded is the extension of the deadline for submitting amendments in the Congress until September 9, 2026. That is, the bill is still in an early phase, in the Congress, pending the closure of the amendment period to the articles and can then proceed to committee and commission. It does not modify the seat distribution rule of the Congress, but the conditions of the campaign and electoral information.
• Initiative to modify the LOREG on ineligibilities (124/000028 / (15)622/000048)
  It is an initiative promoted by the Senate, processed both in the Senate and the Congress, focusing on adjusting the causes of ineligibility provided in the LOREG. The register does not indicate changes in constituencies or seat distribution, but in who can or cannot be a candidate.
  Its current status in the Congress is also an extended amendment period until September 9, 2026, so it is also in the amendment phase, without having yet proceeded to committee or commission debates.

Therefore, none of these two initiatives constitute an ongoing reform on the allocation of seats in the Congress in the strict sense.

2. Recent electoral reforms already concluded

In the current legislature, several organic reforms with impact on the electoral system have been processed and concluded, but they are no longer in parliamentary phase:

• Organic Bill proposal to modify the LOREG linked to art. 69.3 CE (122/000280 / (15)624/000010)
  Presented by the Socialist Parliamentary Group in the Congress, it adapts the LOREG to the reform of article 69.3 of the Constitution, recognizing Formentera as its own constituency and regulating the election of the seat corresponding to it in the Senate. It focuses on territorial representation in the Upper Chamber, not on the distribution of seats in the Congress.
  The initiative was definitively approved and on 06/26/2026 the official approval of the text was published, so its processing is concluded.
• Organic Bill project on parity representation and balanced presence of women and men (121/000001 / (15)621/000002)
  Government project introducing parity representation rules in different spheres, including electoral lists. It was definitively approved on 07/23/2024 and published as approved text on 07/31/2024 in both Congress and Senate.
  Although it affects the configuration of candidacies (for example, zipper lists or balanced presence requirements), it does not modify the number or territorial distribution of seats in the Congress, nor the formula by which they are assigned.
• Organic Bill proposal by Vox to modify the LOREG (122/000200)
  Registered by the Vox Parliamentary Group, it was processed in the Congress, but the initiative “fell through” on 09/23/2025 and on 09/26/2025 the rejection text was published. Its processing is therefore closed and has not resulted in any reform.

3. Conclusion

Based on the available parliamentary information, there is currently no electoral reform in process that changes the allocation of seats in the Congress of Deputies (constituencies, number of seats per province, or distribution formula). What there are are ongoing LOREG reforms on debates and electoral polls and on ineligibilities, both still in amendment phase in the Congress, and already approved reforms affecting territorial representation in the Senate and parity in candidacies, but not the basic mechanism of seat distribution in the Congress.

If you had a specific initiative in mind (for example, a political or media debate about changing the provincial seat distribution), as of today that change does not correspond to an organic law in process that is modifying those core elements of the electoral system of the Congress.

The president of the Partido Popular (PP) is, according to the statutes and the statutory report approved at the XXI National Congress of 2025, the figure that concentrates the political leadership of the party, presides over its main bodies, and is at the center of the internal and external representation of the organization. Currently, this position is held by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, whose trajectory combines a long executive career in Galicia with the national leadership of the PP and the role of opposition leader in Spain.

Competencies of the president of the Partido Popular according to the statutes

The statutes approved at the XXI National Congress of the PP in July 2025, along with their Statutes report, do not merely list bodies but redefine the organizational model by strengthening the role of the presidency as the axis of a party “organized, well-oiled, and serving society” and aspiring to “support the next Government of Spain” with Alberto Núñez Feijóo at the helm.

From the statutory documentation and internal notes of the PP itself, several core functions of the national president emerge:

• Political and strategic leadership of the party: the presidency leads the PP’s political project, sets major priorities (for example, commitment to “transparency, participation, and listening”) and guides the opposition line and government alternative. The party texts emphasize that the statutes are the “reflection of how an administration will be governed,” reinforcing the president’s role as guarantor of that model.
• Presidency and promotion of leadership bodies: the national president leads the National Executive Committee and the Steering Committee, selects the core of deputy secretariats, and decides the configuration of the leadership (general secretariat, spokespersons, etc.), as seen in successive internal reshuffles led by Feijóo.
• Territorial and sectoral coordination: the new statutes create councils and committees (Council of Autonomous Presidents, Committee of Mayors of Large Cities, Coordination Committee among Provincial Deputies, Cabildos and Consells, Council of New Spaniards). The national president is part of these bodies and is the reference point to articulate common positions on matters such as water, education, health, or immigration relations.
• Promotion and supervision of the ethical code and accountability: the Statutes report strengthens the obligation of public officials to submit to an ethical code and render periodic accounts. The presidency embodies and publicly defends this standard and, together with the Compliance Office foreseen in the statutes, is politically responsible for ensuring that “whoever does wrong pays and leaves this party.”
• External and international representation: in the new organizational chart, the presidency directly assumes the competencies of the party’s international wing, which previously was under a specific secretariat. This places the president as the main spokesperson of the PP before other European political forces, international institutions, and foreign public opinion.
• Relationship with the membership and congress process: the reformed statutes put “members at the center” and establish telematic mechanisms to vote and participate. The president is subject to re-election at national congresses, presents his candidacy, team, and political program, and answers to delegates and the membership.

Overall, the statutes configure the national president as the highest responsible for political line, internal cohesion, selection of the leadership team, and projection of the PP as a “reformist center” party, aspiring to represent all Spaniards.

Political trajectory of Alberto Núñez Feijóo

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (Ourense, 1961) has been president of the Partido Popular since the extraordinary congress in Seville on April 1, 2022. He arrived at that conclave after the internal crisis that ended Pablo Casado’s leadership and was elected almost by acclamation. Four years later, in 2026, the PP presents itself as a party united by its electoral victories and he has been re-elected as president at the XXI National Congress.

Before his leap to national politics, Feijóo built his profile as a manager in administration and in Galicia. According to the biography collected in his institutional profile and the press:

• He began his political career in the state administration as president of Insalud at 31 years old, and later was president of Correos.
• He returned to Galicia as vice president of the Xunta and inherited from Manuel Fraga the leadership of the PP of Galicia (PPdeG), from where he consolidated as a party reference.
• He was president of the Xunta of Galicia between 2009 and 2022, a period in which he achieved four absolute majorities and built an image as a prudent manager oriented to budgetary stability, although he also faced political and media controversies.

In 2023 he left the presidency of the Xunta to lead the PP nationwide and present his candidacy for the presidency of the Government. In the 2023 general elections, he achieved that the PP went from 89 to 137 deputies while Vox dropped from 52 to 33, but he did not obtain the necessary support to be invested in the Congress, thus consolidating as leader of the opposition.

In the XV legislature, he is listed as a deputy in the Congress and a member of the Permanent Deputation, while maintaining the presidency of the PP. The press describes him as a leader who has reordered the leadership at Génova, strengthened the power of the general secretariat and his circle of trust, and who directs his project to “repeal sanchismo” and offer an alternative of “institutional reconstruction,” emphasizing democratic regeneration and economic stability.

After the general elections held on July 23, 2023, the Congress of Deputies of the XV Legislature was composed of 350 seats distributed among eleven political formations. The initial seat distribution by party was as follows: a first minority of the Partido Popular (PP), followed by the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), and a set of state and territorial forces completing the absolute majority of the Chamber.

According to official results, the seat distribution immediately after the elections was as follows:

• Partido Popular (PP): 137 seats. It was the most voted force and the group with the greatest representation in the Chamber, but fell short of the absolute majority (176 deputies), which prevented it from forming a government majority on its own.
• Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE): 121 seats. Second force in number of seats and the axis of the subsequent investiture bloc that allowed Pedro Sánchez's re-election as president of the Government.
• Vox: 33 seats. Third force in the hemicycle and main parliamentary partner of the PP in the right-wing bloc. Its seats, added to those of the PP and UPN, form one of the two major numerical blocs of the legislature.
• Sumar: 31 seats. Coalition of parties to the left of the PSOE, led by Yolanda Díaz. These seats are essential to form the government bloc and the majority supporting the Executive in the Chamber.
• Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC): 7 seats. Catalan independentist force that is part of the support network necessary for the Government to pass key laws.
• Junts per Catalunya (Junts): 7 seats. Another Catalan independentist formation, decisive in the parliamentary arithmetic of the legislature, both in investiture and in votes of high political content.
• EH Bildu: 6 seats. Leftist coalition of Basque-Navarrese scope, also a relevant piece in the bloc that supported the investiture and the approval of legislative initiatives of the Government.
• Basque Nationalist Party (PNV): 5 seats. Traditional Basque nationalist party, with significant weight in state politics. Its five deputies usually hold a swing position in close votes.
• Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG): 1 seat. Galician nationalist formation that contributes one seat to the left bloc and usually conditions its support on certain territorial commitments.
• Canarian Coalition (CC): 1 seat. Canary Islands party, whose deputy can be decisive in votes where the margin between blocs is reduced to one or two seats.
• Union of the Navarrese People (UPN): 1 seat. Navarrese center-right formation, traditionally aligned with the PP in the Congress, completing the main opposition bloc.

Adding these results, we obtain the total of 350 seats that make up the Congress of Deputies. From here, the different parliamentary blocs were configured. According to the analysis published by the newspaper Demócrata, the set formed by PSOE and Sumar totaled 147 seats, which combined with the support of ERC (7), Junts (7), EH Bildu (6), PNV (5), BNG (1), and Canarian Coalition (1) allowed the articulation of a potential bloc of 179 deputies for an investiture and key votes of the legislature.

On the other side of the hemicycle, the bloc led by the PP consisted of its 137 deputies, along with the 33 from Vox and the deputy from UPN, thus reaching 171 seats. This balance of forces —179 versus 171 in scenarios where the investiture bloc remained united— explains the enormous tension and the very narrow margin with which the Government must negotiate each legislative initiative.

From an institutional point of view, this composition configures a very fragmented Congress, in which no force can impose its agenda without weaving stable or punctual agreements. The need to coordinate a considerable number of territorial parties (Catalan, Basque, Galician, and Canary Islands) grants these formations notable influence beyond their individual numerical weight. The legislature is thus built on complex arithmetic in which practically “every vote counts” in the most sensitive laws.

In summary, the Congress resulting from the 23-J 2023 elections is a hemicycle with a clear numerical leadership of the PP, but with a potential government majority articulated around the PSOE and Sumar thanks to the support of various nationalist and left-wing forces. This combination of fragmentation and tight blocs defines the political dynamics of the XV Legislature.