PP and Vox would add between 201 and 203 seats, one of the major data points from a poll in which the movement occurs mainly within the blocks.
The first Target Point poll for El Debate after the summer provides a particularly useful snapshot to measure what has happened since before the Ceuta crisis, because the same polling company published its previous national survey in mid-July, with fieldwork conducted between the 15th and 17th, when there were still almost two weeks left before the events of July 30.
The comparison shows a notable change, but not exactly the one that a quick reading of the blocks might suggest. PP and Vox already had a very large absolute majority before the summer and they maintain it. What has changed significantly is the distribution of power between the two: Santiago Abascal grows while Alberto Núñez Feijóo declines.
Target Point now places PP at 31.5% and between 135 and 136 deputies, PSOE at 25.6% and between 106 and 107, Vox at 18.9% and between 66 and 67, Sumar at 6.9% and 10 seats, and Podemos around 2.8% and two representatives. The fieldwork was conducted this week through 1,012 online interviews.
The before and after Ceuta: Vox gains 5-6 seats and PP loses 6-7
This is the central data of the poll.
In July, Target Point granted Vox between 60 and 62 deputies. Now it gives it between 66 and 67.
Abascal's party therefore gains between five and six representatives when comparing the equivalent extremes of both ranges. In percentage, it goes from 17.6% to 18.9%, an increase of 1.3 points in less than two months.
PP is moving practically in the opposite direction. It had 32.1% and between 141 and 143 deputies before Ceuta; now it drops to 31.5% and between 135 and 136.
Feijóo loses six tenths and between six and seven seats
We are not, therefore, facing a uniform growth of the right. The block maintains a very large majority, but Vox occupies a significantly larger part of it.
PSOE loses half a point, but barely cedes seats
The socialist evolution is quite different.
In July, Target Point placed PSOE at 26.1% and between 106 and 108 deputies. Now it places it at 25.6% and between 106 and 107.
Sánchez loses half a point and about 117,000 votes in Target Point's estimation, but the parliamentary translation barely moves: it retains the lower end of its range and loses only one deputy at the upper end.
This nuance is important because it avoids exaggerating the so-called Ceuta effect. In this survey, the crisis coincides with a socialist loss in votes, but not with a new collapse in seats.
The PSOE was already arriving at the summer well below its 2023 result and the additional movement since July is limited.
Sumar recovers two deputies
Sumar also stars in a movement that breaks the idea of a homogeneous fall of the entire left.
In July it was at 6.1% and eight seats.
Now it rises to 6.9% and achieves 10.
It gains eight tenths, about 179,000 votes according to Target Point and two deputies.
Podemos remains with two representatives and hovers around 2.8% of the vote.
The sum of PSOE-Sumar-Podemos thus reaches between 118 and 119 deputies, compared to the approximately 116-118 they obtained in July.
That is to say, although the PSOE retreats, Sumar compensates part of that movement and the whole of the state left does not worsen in parliamentary representation compared to the previous Target Point.
PP and Vox go from 49.7% to 50.4%
Also by blocks, the comparison is more nuanced than it seems.
In July:
- PP: 32.1%.
- Vox: 17.6%.
Total: 49.7%.
Now:
- PP: 31.5%.
- Vox: 18.9%.
Total: 50.4%.
The sum of both gains seven tenths and crosses the 50% barrier.
But practically all the movement is explained because Vox gains 1.3 points while the PP loses six tenths.
In seats, something even more interesting happens.
- In July, PP and Vox summed between 201 and 205.
- Now they sum between 201 and 203.
Therefore, the majority does not grow in representation. It even narrows slightly from above.
The big change is internal: fewer deputies for Feijóo and more for Abascal.
The gap between the blocks barely changes
PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos summed in July approximately 34.9% of the vote.
Now they reach 35.3%.
They rise four tenths together because the recovery of Sumar compensates for the socialist fall.
The distance against PP and Vox goes from 14.8 to 15.1 points.
Just three tenths more.
This makes this survey one of the most interesting for understanding the period after Ceuta: it does not reflect a large aggregated movement from the left to the right, but rather a reorganization within the two blocks.
The transfer PP-Vox explains a good part of Abascal's rise
Target Point also provides a very specific figure.
Vox gains about 351,000 votes compared to July. Of them, approximately 135,000 would come from former PP voters.
This means that about 38% of Vox's net growth during this period can be associated, according to the pollster's estimate, with voters who in July were in the orbit of the PP.
The transfer matrix offers an even broader perspective since the 23J: around 15.3% of those who voted for the PP in 2023 would now opt for Vox, a volume that Target Point estimates at approximately 1.2 million people.
The reverse movement is much smaller: just over 17,000 former Vox voters would shift towards the PP.
The PP compensates part of its loss by attracting PSOE and abstainers.
Feijóo manages to compensate for part of that loss through other means.
Target Point calculates that the PP would attract about 220,000 former socialist voters and around 636,000 people who did not vote in the general elections of 2023.
This explains why the PP does not fall much more despite the significant transfer to Vox.
The party loses votes on its right, but incorporates support from the PSOE and abstention.
Still, its electoral loyalty drops to 75.8%.
The PSOE has about 1.2 million former undecided voters
The socialist problem still largely lies within its own base.
Only 65.6% of those who identify as Sánchez voters claim to have decided to repeat their vote. The pool of undecided reaches 15.7%, which Target Point translates into about 1.2 million people.
This data is perhaps more important for the PSOE than the monthly drop of half a point.
A very significant part of its future result depends not so much on recovering voters already settled in other parties as on re-mobilizing voters from 2023 who today have not decided their ballot.
Compared to the 23J, Vox doubles its seats
The comparison with the last general elections shows that the accumulated change during the legislature is much greater than that produced since July.
Vox obtained then 12.4% and 33 deputies.
Now Target Point places it at 18.9% and between 66 and 67.
That is 6.5 points more and between 33 and 34 additional deputies.
In other words, Vox would exactly or slightly more than double its representation from the 23J.
The PP would have fewer deputies than in 2023
The situation of the PP is very different. Feijóo achieved 33.1% and 137 seats in 2023.
Now it appears at 31.5% and between 135 and 136. It loses 1.6 points and between one and two deputies.
This is probably the great structural transformation of the bloc during the legislature.
The PSOE loses between 14 and 15 deputies since the 23J
The PSOE obtained 31.7% and 121 representatives.
Target Point now places it at 25.6% and between 106 and 107. The accumulated loss is 6.1 points and between 14 and 15 deputies.
But, again, a large part of that deterioration is prior to Ceuta.
In July it was already at 106-108. The crisis coincides with an additional half point drop, but barely modifies its representation.
Sumar and Podemos lose 19 deputies compared to the joint candidacy
In 2023, Sumar ran with Podemos integrated and obtained 12.3% and 31 deputies.
Now the two formations appear separated.
- Sumar obtains 6.9% and 10 seats.
- Podemos hovers around 2.8% and two.
Together they would sum approximately 9.7% and 12 representatives.
The loss compared to 23J would be 2.6 points and 19 seats.
The fragmentation explains why a relatively moderate drop in percentage has such a strong impact on representation.
PP and Vox gain between 31 and 33 seats compared to 23J
The sum of both parties was 170 deputies after the 2023 elections.
Now it would be between 201 and 203.
That is between 31 and 33 more seats.
But the composition is revealing.
PP: from 137 to 135-136.
Vox: from 33 to 66-67.
The majority is much larger, but the PP has not grown.
The growth belongs entirely to Vox.
The investiture bloc also does not reach
Sánchez's problem is not limited to PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos.
Target Point calculates that even adding Junts, ERC, PNV, EH Bildu, BNG, Coalición Canaria, and Adelante Andalucía, and taking in each case the most favorable extreme of the ranges, the total would reach a maximum of 148 deputies.
That is 28 less than the absolute majority.
Junts appears especially weakened, with between three and four seats compared to the current seven.
Therefore, although the state left slightly improves its sum compared to July thanks to Sumar, the overall arithmetic remains far from allowing an alternative majority.
Result and comparison
Target Point Survey: current result, before Ceuta, and comparison with 23J
The comparison with the last Target Point poll prior to the Ceuta crisis shows a strong movement within the right bloc: Vox gains between five and six seats while the PP loses between six and seven. The PSOE drops half a point, but practically maintains its representation.
| Party | September | July, before Ceuta | Change | 23J | Change vs. 23J |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 31.5% · 135-136 | 32.1% · 141-143 | -0.6 points · -6/-7 seats | 33.1% · 137 | -1.6 points · -1/-2 seats |
| PSOE | 25.6% · 106-107 | 26.1% · 106-108 | -0.5 points · 0/-1 seat | 31.7% · 121 | -6.1 points · -14/-15 seats |
| Vox | 18.9% · 66-67 | 17.6% · 60-62 | +1.3 points · +5/+6 seats | 12.4% · 33 | +6.5 points · +33/+34 seats |
| Sumar | 6.9% · 10 | 6.1% · 8 | +0.8 points · +2 seats | 12.3% · 31 together with Podemos | See note |
| Podemos | ≈2.8% · 2 | 2.7% · 2 | ≈+0.1 points · no changes | Integrated into Sumar | See note |
In the general elections of 2023 Podemos ran integrated into Sumar. Compared together, both forces go from 31 deputies in the 23J to 12 in the current estimate of Target Point.