The sum PP-Vox barely varies, from 201 to 202 deputies, which shows that the great movement occurs within the right block. Against the 23J, Abascal would have gained 36 seats, while Feijóo would lose four and Sánchez 16.
The crisis in Ceuta does not substantially alter the size of the majority that the polls have been attributing to PP and Vox, but it does strongly change who weighs more within it.
The new barometer of GAD3 for ABC, conducted between September 1 and 3, places the PP as the first force with 31.1% and 133 deputies, the PSOE at 26.1% and 105 seats, and Vox at 19.2% and 69 representatives. Sumar would reach 7% and nine deputies and Podemos 3.1% and two.
The relevant comparison is with the previous national survey from the same polling company, whose fieldwork was conducted between May 26 and 28, before the crisis in Ceuta erupted. Then GAD3 granted the PP 33.1% and 141 seats, the PSOE 26.8% and 107, Vox 17.1% and 60, Sumar 5.9% and seven, and Podemos 3.1% and two.
The before and after photograph is very striking.
- Vox: +9 seats.
- PP: -8.
- PSOE: -2.
- Sumar: +2.
- Podemos: no changes.
The clearest effect after Ceuta: Vox gains nine seats and the PP loses eight. Vox is, by far, the party that improves the most between the two measurements of GAD3.
In May it obtained 17.1% and 60 deputies. Now it reaches 19.2% and 69.
The increase is 2.1 points and nine seats.
The PP travels practically the same parliamentary distance in the opposite direction. Feijóo goes from 33.1% to 31.1%, two points less, and from 141 to 133 deputies.
That is eight lost seats.
The movement leaves a reading especially relevant for Genoa: the PP-Vox majority practically does not decrease, but the PP has less weight within it.
In May, of the 201 deputies that the two parties summed, 141 were from the PP and 60 from Vox.
Now, of the 202, 133 would be popular and 69 would correspond to Abascal. Vox thus goes from representing approximately 30% of the joint majority to exceeding 34%.
PP and Vox go from 201 to 202: the right does not grow, it redistributes
This is probably the most interesting data from the entire survey.
Before Ceuta, GAD3 granted PP and Vox 201 seats. After Ceuta, it attributes them 202. Therefore, the survey does not show a large global transfer towards the right. What it fundamentally records is an internal redistribution of the conservative vote from the PP to Vox.
In percentage, something similar happens. PP and Vox added up to 50.2% in May. Now they reach 50.3%. But within that sum, PP loses two points and Vox gains 2.1.
Vox reaches 69 deputies, more than double than on 23J
The comparison with the general elections of 2023 further expands the dimension of Vox's growth. Abascal obtained 12.4% and 33 deputies then. GAD3 now places it at 19.2% and 69. That's 6.8 points and 36 seats more.
Vox would therefore have more than double the representatives than in the current Congress.
The transformation is especially significant because PP does not experience parallel growth. Feijóo obtained 137 seats on 23J and would now remain at 133.
PP loses eight seats since May and four compared to 23J
Feijóo would still clearly win a general election, but he would do so with a lower percentage of votes and fewer deputies than in the last elections.
GAD3 attributes him a 31.1%. In May he was at 33.1%. And on 23J he also obtained around 33.1%.
PSOE also drops, but much less than PP
PSOE loses ground compared to the previous GAD3, although the movement is much more limited.
In May it had 26.8% and 107 deputies. Now it appears at 26.1% and 105.
The drop is 0.7 points and two seats. Therefore, the result does not show a socialist collapse after Ceuta.
Sánchez worsens, but less than Feijóo.
In fact, the distance between PP and PSOE in percentage of votes is reduced. In May it was 6.3 points. Now it stands at five.
Sánchez loses 16 deputies since 23J
The comparison with the last general elections remains much more negative for PSOE.
Sánchez obtained 31.7% and 121 deputies in 2023. Now GAD3 places him at 26.1% and 105.
That's 5.6 points and 16 deputies less.
PSOE, therefore, appears practically stabilized compared to its pre-Ceuta measurement, but well below the starting point of the legislature.
Sumar improves two deputies compared to May
Sumar partially breaks the trend.
GAD3 placed it before Ceuta at 5.9% and seven deputies. Now it reaches 7% and nine. The improvement is 1.1 points and two seats.
Podemos remains exactly at 3.1% and two deputies.
This makes the sum PSOE-Sumar-Podemos surprisingly stable in seats between the two GAD3.
The state left does not lose deputies compared to May. Two from PSOE are redistributed to Sumar.
The real problem for Sánchez is the investiture partners
Where arithmetic changes profoundly compared to 2023 is in the rest of the parties that made the investiture possible.
GAD3 now grants 10 seats to ERC, seven to EH Bildu, six to PNV, four to Junts, and two to BNG.
ERC would gain three deputies compared to the 23J; EH Bildu, one; PNV, one; and BNG, one.
Junts, on the other hand, would drop from seven to four. Sumar would also be a fraction of what it was in 2023.
According to the calculation published by ABC, the parliamentary partners of the PSOE go from the 59 deputies they had at the beginning of the legislature to 42 in this projection.
The drop makes it extremely difficult to rebuild an alternative majority, even if Sánchez maintains more than 100 deputies.
ERC overtakes Sumar
One of the striking consequences of the new Congress would be that ERC would obtain more deputies than Sumar.
The Catalan republicans would reach 10 seats. Sumar would remain at nine.
EH Bildu would achieve seven, PNV six, and Junts four.
The rebalancing within the block that made the investiture possible would be very profound: the alternative state left loses strength while ERC and EH Bildu gain relative weight.
Junts falls from seven to four
Junts appears as one of the main losers outside the major parties.
The formation obtained seven seats and 1.6% in 2023. GAD3 now places it at four and 1.2%.
66% want early elections
The survey also includes a question about the electoral calendar.
66% believe that Pedro Sánchez should call general elections before the end of the legislature. 26% think he should complete it. Another 8% do not know or do not answer.
The demand for an advance is practically total among PP voters, with 95%, and very high among Vox voters, with 86%.
But the most interesting data is again within the PSOE.
43% of socialist voters believe that Sánchez should call elections now, compared to 49% who prefer to complete the legislature.
Result of the GAD3 survey and comparison with May and the 23J
The first national survey of GAD3 after the Ceuta crisis leaves Vox as the party that grows the most compared to the previous survey in May: it gains 2.1 points and nine seats. The PP loses eight deputies and the PSOE two, while Sumar recovers two representatives.
| Party | GAD3 September | GAD3 May | Change vs. May | Result 23J | Change vs. 23J |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 31.1% · 133 seats | 33.1% · 141 seats | -2.0 points · -8 seats | 33.1% · 137 seats | -2.0 points · -4 seats |
| PSOE | 26.1% · 105 seats | 26.8% · 107 seats | -0.7 points · -2 seats | 31.7% · 121 seats | -5.6 points · -16 seats |
| Vox | 19.2% · 69 seats | 17.1% · 60 seats | +2.1 points · +9 seats | 12.4% · 33 seats | +6.8 points · +36 seats |
| Sumar | 7.0% · 9 seats | 5.9% · 7 seats | +1.1 points · +2 seats | 12.3% · 31 seats* | -5.3 points · -22 seats* |
| Podemos | 3.1% · 2 seats | 3.1% · 2 seats | No changes | Integrated in Sumar | — |
* Podemos participated integrated in Sumar in the general elections of 2023. If Sumar and Podemos are compared together, they go from 31 deputies in the 23J to 11 in the current GAD3 survey, a loss of 20 seats.