Survey elections in the Community of Madrid: Ayuso would consolidate her hegemony and widen her lead over the PSOE, according to Data10

Brief answer

As of June 2026, the Assembly of Madrid is in the legislature started after the regional elections of May 28, 2023, that is, in a legislature progressing through its ordinary phase of parliamentary work without any record of early dissolution. This legislature has a planned duration of four years, so its natural end and the horizon for the next regional elections are set for May 2027, barring any advancement. The exact date of the next election will be set by the call decree issued by the Presidency of the Community, in accordance with the Statute of Autonomy and the Electoral Law of the Community of Madrid. The ordinary electoral calendar includes, in sequence, the dissolution and call, the submission of candidacies, the 15-day campaign, the reflection day, the voting, the counting, the constitution of the new Assembly, and the investiture of the regional Presidency.

Current situation of the Community of Madrid legislature

The elections to the Assembly of Madrid were held on May 28, 2023, initiating a new legislature whose ordinary duration is four years. The Statute of Autonomy of the Community of Madrid, available at the Congress of Deputies (statutory text), establishes that the Assembly is elected for four years and that the mandate ends upon completion of that period or in the event of an early dissolution. The constitutive session following the 2023 elections was held in June of that year, within the deadlines set by electoral regulations and parliamentary rules, following a pattern similar to that described for the previous XII Legislature in institutional analyses such as those collected in the Assembly of Madrid Journal.

As of mid-2026, there are no references in the consulted sources to an early dissolution of the Chamber, so it can be considered that the legislature is proceeding ordinarily, with full development of its legislative function and oversight of the regional Government. The temporal reference horizon, therefore, remains the exhaustion of the mandate four years after the 2023 elections, that is, May 2027.

Duration and horizon of the next regional elections

The general framework is set in the Statute of Autonomy and developed in the Electoral Law of the Community of Madrid (LECM), which fits within the basic regulation context of the Organic Law of the General Electoral Regime. The Statute states that the mandate duration is four years and that the Presidency of the Community of Madrid is responsible for calling elections by decree within the time limits set by regional electoral legislation (Statute of Autonomy).

Starting from the date of the last elections (May 28, 2023), the natural end of the legislature is around May 2027. In an ordinary scenario, without legal reform or alteration of the general cycle, the next regional elections in Madrid would be held that May 2027, presumably on a Sunday, consistent with the pattern followed in previous processes described by the Assembly itself and analyses of previous legislatures such as the XII (analysis of the XII Legislature; general information about the Assembly). There is no official date for 2027 because it is only set when the call decree is issued and published.

Next steps in the ordinary regional electoral calendar

Dissolution and election call

In an ordinary cycle, the mandate expires after four years and the Presidency of the Community of Madrid issues a decree that simultaneously dissolves the Assembly and calls elections. This decree sets the voting date and must respect the minimum period of 54 days between its publication and election day, according to the general rules that the LOREG projects onto regional processes. The decree is published in the Official Bulletin of the Community of Madrid and activates all subsequent deadlines.

Submission of candidacies and electoral campaign

From the day after the call, the period opens for parties, coalitions, and groups of electors to submit their candidacies to the competent Electoral Board; this period is practically around the first fortnight after the call, according to the scheme described for previous processes in Assembly references and studies such as the institutional journal on elections and government formation. Once candidacies are proclaimed and published, the electoral campaign phase begins, lasting 15 days: it starts at 00:00 hours on the 15th day before voting and ends at midnight the day immediately before the reflection day.

Reflection day and voting day

The reflection day covers the 24 hours before election day and is characterized by the prohibition of propaganda and campaign acts, according to applicable electoral regulations. Election day is a Sunday set in the call decree; polling stations are constituted in the morning and voting takes place during the legally established hours, after which the count is done at each station and the records are sent to the Electoral Board for the general count.

Constitution of the new Assembly and investiture

After the general count and proclamation of elected deputies by the Electoral Board, the constitutive session of the new Assembly is convened. The Statute of Autonomy and the practice of previous legislatures place this act within a maximum period of approximately 25–30 days from voting; in the legislature started in 2023, the constitution occurred eleven days after the elections, according to the experience recorded in parliamentary studies such as the Senate dossier on regional investitures (dossier on regional investitures). In that session, the Chamber's Board is elected and the deputies' swearing-in is formalized.

Subsequently, the investiture process of the Presidency of the Community opens, carried out through plenary debate and voting. The first vote requires an absolute majority of the Chamber; if not achieved, a second vote is held 48 hours later, where a simple majority suffices. If the maximum period passes without any candidate obtaining confidence, the Statute provides for the automatic dissolution of the Assembly and the call for new elections, introducing an exit mechanism in case of institutional deadlock.

Brief answer

The President of the Community of Madrid is the highest representative of the Community and the head of its Government, according to the Statute of Autonomy of the Community of Madrid. Her central functions are to direct the action of the Council of Government, coordinate the ministries, represent the Community before the State and externally, and promulgate and execute the laws approved by the Assembly of Madrid. Additionally, she is responsible for raising the question of confidence, proposing the dissolution of the Assembly under statutory terms, and signing the decrees and provisions of the regional Executive. In practice, she concentrates the political leadership of the Community within the framework of powers defined by the Statute and the Constitution.

General framework in the Statute of Autonomy

The Statute of Autonomy of the Community of Madrid, approved by Organic Law, establishes the Presidency figure as the central organ of the regional executive power. In the organic part of the Statute, it is determined that the President is elected by the Assembly of Madrid from among its members and appointed by the King, reflecting the parallel with the Presidency of the Government of Spain but at the regional level. The Statute simultaneously configures her as:

a) Highest representative of the Community of Madrid.
b) Ordinary representative of the State in the Community, unless state legislation provides otherwise for specific functions.
c) Head of the Council of Government of the Community of Madrid.

This triple condition explains that her powers are not only internal (direction of the regional Government) but also institutional relations with the General State Administration and other territorial entities.

Political leadership and coordination of the regional Government

One of the essential functions that the Statute assigns to the President is to direct and coordinate the action of the Council of Government. This includes setting the major lines of regional policy, promoting the Government's legislative initiatives in the Assembly of Madrid, and ensuring coherence among the different ministries.

Within this framework, the President:

a) Appoints and dismisses the ministers who make up the Council of Government, by decree.
b) Calls, presides over, and sets the agenda of the Council of Government meetings, and resolves ties in votes under the established regulations.
c) Ensures the execution of regional laws and the application of the government program submitted to the Assembly's confidence.

The Statute serves as a basis for a regional Government and Administration law to specify organizational aspects, but the ultimate political leadership corresponds to the President, who answers to the Assembly of Madrid.

Relationship with the Assembly of Madrid and normative function

In relation to the regional legislative power, the Statute assigns the President several key powers. On one hand, she is responsible for promulgating, in the name of the King, the laws of the Community of Madrid approved by the Assembly, ordering their publication in the Official Bulletin of the Community of Madrid and, when appropriate, in the Official State Bulletin. This closes the regional legislative cycle.

Additionally, the President:

a) May raise before the Assembly the question of confidence on her program or on a general policy declaration, according to the Statute and the Chamber's Rules.
b) Is the subject against whom a motion of censure may be presented, also regulated statutorily, which if successful implies her dismissal and the appointment of a new presidency.
c) Under the terms set by the Statute, may propose the dissolution of the Assembly of Madrid and the call for early regional elections, by decree, respecting the temporal and material limits provided (for example, not doing so during the processing of a motion of censure or within certain periods of the legislature).

In the normative field, the President signs the regional legislative decrees and the decree-laws of the Community when the Statute allows their use and the Assembly has granted the corresponding delegation or authorized their use in cases of extraordinary and urgent need.

Institutional representation and external relations of the Community

Another essential power provided in the Statute is the representation of the Community of Madrid in its relations with other institutions. As the highest representative:

a) She exercises the representation of the Community before the Government and the General Courts, leading negotiations on regional financing, transfers of powers, or conflicts of competences, always within the constitutional framework.
b) Represents the Community before other autonomous communities, in horizontal cooperation bodies and sectoral conferences.
c) In the scope of external projection allowed to autonomous communities, she promotes and signs cooperation agreements and participates in European or international forums on matters of regional competence, according to what the Statute and basic state legislation detail.

This representative dimension also translates into signing agreements with local entities, universities, or other public and private organizations, when authorized by regional regulations.

Political responsibility and statutory limits

The Statute emphasizes that the President is politically accountable before the Assembly of Madrid. This means that her tenure depends on maintaining the confidence of the parliamentary majority, and she can be dismissed by a constructive motion of censure or forced to resign after losing a question of confidence.

Likewise, her powers are limited by the Constitution, the Statute itself, and the laws. She cannot assume functions that correspond to the State nor modify the distribution of competences. The power to dissolve the Assembly is regulated and subject to controls, and the use of instruments such as the regional decree-law is restricted by the requirements of extraordinary and urgent need and by subsequent control by the Assembly and, if applicable, the Constitutional Court.

In summary, the Statute of Autonomy configures a strong presidency in terms of political leadership and institutional representation, but framed within a regional parliamentary system in which the Assembly of Madrid holds the final word in legitimizing and controlling the Executive's head.

Direct answer

For a party or candidacy to obtain representation in the Assembly of Madrid, it must run in the single constituency of the Community, surpass 5 % of the valid votes cast throughout the region, and thus enter the seat distribution. This distribution is carried out using the proportional D’Hondt system among all lists that exceed this threshold. The 5 % calculation is made over valid votes (votes for candidacies plus blank votes, excluding null votes). All this is regulated in the Statute of Autonomy of the Community of Madrid, the regional Electoral Law, and, generally and subsidiarily, the LOREG.

Basic legal framework

The Madrid electoral system is based on three normative pillars:

First, the Statute of Autonomy of the Community of Madrid, which establishes that the Assembly is elected by universal suffrage, with proportional representation, and that the electoral constituency is the province of Madrid. It also establishes that only candidacies that reach a minimum percentage of valid votes cast in the constituency, set at 5 %, enter the seat distribution. This statutory framework can be consulted in the compilation of statutes of the Congress of Deputies: Statute of Autonomy of Madrid.

Second, the Electoral Law of the Community of Madrid, which develops the Assembly election system: confirms the single constituency, specifies the 5 % threshold of valid votes cast, and establishes the use of the D’Hondt method for seat allocation. It can be seen in the regional normative viewer: Electoral Law of the Community of Madrid.

Third, the LOREG (Organic Law 5/1985, of the General Electoral Regime), which acts as a general and supplementary norm for issues such as the submission of candidacies, definition of valid votes, counting, proclamation of elected, and other common rules, which Madrid regulations refer to this organic text.

Constituency and types of candidacies

The entire Community of Madrid functions as a single electoral constituency, coinciding with the province of Madrid. This means that votes from all municipalities are aggregated at the regional level and there are no lists or seats by districts or counties.

Lists may be presented by political parties, coalitions, and groups of electors, provided they meet the requirements of the LOREG and the regional electoral law regarding registration, coalition communication, and, in the case of groups, signature collection. The Assembly's internal regulations and documentation services frame this within the general rules of the Chamber's operation, accessible at: Assembly Rules (Title 2, chapter 4) and Assembly Rules (Title 4, chapter 4).

Electoral threshold and calculation of 5 %

The key requirement to obtain representation is to surpass the 5 % electoral threshold. Only candidacies that reach at least 5 % of the valid votes cast in the single constituency participate in the seat distribution.

For this calculation, valid votes are considered to be votes for candidacies and blank votes, while null votes are excluded. This conception of “valid votes cast” aligns with the general logic of the LOREG and is applied by Madrid law. In practice, including blank votes makes the effective threshold somewhat more demanding, as it increases the denominator over which the 5 % is calculated.

Academic studies and Assembly analyses highlight this design as a relevant element of Madrid's political representation, for example in the Assembly Journal: Assembly of Madrid Journal, and in comparative analyses on regional systems published in the Journal of the General Courts: Journal of the General Courts.

D’Hondt method and practical effects

Once the 5 % filter is applied, seats are distributed using the proportional D’Hondt system. This method consists of dividing the votes obtained by each candidacy that has surpassed the threshold by a series of divisors (1, 2, 3, …) and ordering the resulting quotients to assign seats.

The combination of a single constituency, D’Hondt, and the 5 % threshold tends to favor some concentration of votes in the most supported forces, making it difficult for very small parties to enter but allowing relatively proportional representation. The Assembly's institutional description summarizes this system, for example in: Assembly of Madrid (general description).

Operational summary of requirements

Practically, a party or candidacy needs: (1) To properly present itself in the single constituency of the Community of Madrid according to the LOREG and Madrid Electoral Law; (2) To obtain at least 5 % of the valid votes cast (including blank votes) in the entire Community; and (3) To compete in the seat distribution by D’Hondt with other forces that have also surpassed that threshold. Without meeting that 5 %, there is no possibility of obtaining seats in the Assembly, regardless of the territorial distribution of the vote within the Community.