The seismic activity recorded in Granada during the last hours should gradually lose intensity after the earthquake of magnitude 5 with epicenter in Alhendín, according to specialists in geology and seismic prevention.
The president of the Illustrious Official College of Geologists, Nieves Sánchez Guitián, and the head of the Prevention Area of the Andalusian Institute of Geophysics, Mercedes Feriche, believe that the most likely scenario is that aftershocks will continue to occur in the coming days, although increasingly less numerous and of lower magnitude.
Experts call for calm, but also urge to maintain caution against possible falls of cornices, tiles, or fragments of facades, especially because the recorded earthquakes have had little depth.
The aftershocks may last for several days
Sánchez Guitián explains that the appearance of new tremors after an earthquake of these characteristics falls within normal behavior.
In her opinion, the fact that the aftershocks have a reduced magnitude can be interpreted as a favorable evolution, as it means that the accumulated energy is being released gradually and through movements of lower intensity.
The geologist considers that this type of small earthquakes is, in principle, more manageable for buildings and should not cause serious consequences by themselves, although they may repeat for several days.
Caution with cornices and facades
The main warning from specialists now focuses on the exterior elements of buildings.
Due to the shallow depth of the earthquakes, the vibrations may favor the fall of previously weakened pieces. Sánchez therefore recommends avoiding walking directly under cornices or facade areas that may present damage in the coming days.
The recommendation becomes especially important given the possibility that small aftershocks will continue to be recorded.
Granada, in an area with active faults
The seismic activity of the province is related to the tectonic situation of the Betic Cordillera, located in the interaction area between the African and Eurasian plates.
This configuration causes tensions on different active faults and explains that earthquakes may occur in the area, although Sánchez reminds that there are other regions of the planet where seismic movements are much more frequent.
The most likely scenario is a reduction in activity
From the Andalusian Institute of Geophysics, Mercedes Feriche also points to a downward evolution after the sequence recorded in Granada.
The series has included several previous movements and a main earthquake of magnitude 5, recorded around one in the morning. From now on, specialists expect both the number of earthquakes and their intensity to decrease. However, this does not allow for completely ruling out another significant movement.
Feriche explains that the readjustment produced in a fault can, under certain circumstances, transfer stresses to nearby structures. This is solely a geological possibility and there is currently no capacity to determine if a new earthquake of greater intensity will occur.
Experts differentiate this episode from the earthquakes of 2021
The Andalusian Institute of Geophysics also differentiates the current sequence from the one that affected Granada in 2021.
In that episode, activity occurred in several faults practically simultaneously, generating a much broader succession of movements. On this occasion, according to the available data, the activity would be concentrated for now in a single fault.
Specialists classify the current phenomenon as a seismic series led by a main earthquake and accompanied by previous and subsequent movements, and not as the seismic swarm recorded five years ago.
What to do while it is shaking
Experts also insist on the importance of acting correctly during an earthquake. Feriche advises against rushing out into the street while the movement lasts, as the exterior of buildings can become one of the highest risk areas due to falling tiles, cladding, or facade fragments.
The recommendation is to remain protected indoors, crouch down and position oneself in a safe area until the shaking ends.
With the available data, specialists maintain a favorable forecast and expect the activity of the coming days to subside, although they remind that the exact evolution of a seismic series cannot be anticipated with total certainty.