The month of May ended with an episode of very high temperatures in southwestern Europe, which left hundreds of records in countries such as United Kingdom, France and Spain. June has started still with warm weather, although without records as high as those of the last days of May.
The start of the month has also been marked by the passage of fronts and troughs, which have left precipitation in areas of the northern third of the peninsula and in several communities of the Mediterranean area.
Intense downpours in Catalonia and the Valencian Community
During the last few days, very intense stormy downpours have been recorded in parts of Catalonia and the Valencian Community, with accumulations that have locally exceeded 90 liters per square meter in a few hours.
Even so, this weekend no widespread adverse weather situation is expected. The forecast points to a rise in temperatures and a progressive stabilization of the weather in a large part of the country.
Temperatures above average in much of Spain
The European model has updated its forecast for the rest of June and points to a scenario of temperatures above average in most of Spain.
The positive anomalies would be more significant in Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Castilla y León, the Community of Madrid and some points of the Pre-Pyrenees and the Iberian System. In these areas, if the forecast is confirmed, thermometers could be more than 3 ºC above the average usual for the month of June.
In much of the rest of the peninsular interior, temperatures could be between 2 and 3 ºC above the normal values for the season.
Possible new episode of intense heat
With this scenario, it is not ruled out that Spain will register at least one new episode of very high temperatures in the coming weeks. However, the forecast also includes possible transitory coolings, associated with the occasional passage of fronts or changes in air masses.
Thermal anomalies could be more moderate on the Galician coast, the Cantabrian coast, the Andalusian coast, some points of the Mediterranean coast, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands, where the regulating effect of the sea would limit the thermal rise. In the case of the Canary Islands archipelago, no significant temperature anomalies are currently apparent.
Less rain in the first fortnight
The evolution of precipitation presents more uncertainty. At the beginning of summer, rains usually have a convective character, that is, they appear in the form of storms and with a very irregular distribution.
For the remainder of the first fortnight of June, precipitation could be below average due to the predominance of high pressures. Even so, the passage of a weakened front or an upper-level wave could leave isolated precipitation in certain areas.
In the Canary Islands, the forecast points to the predominance of the trade winds, although without a particularly defined trend regarding rainfall.
The second half of June could bring changes
For the second part of the month, the European model begins to sense possible changes in atmospheric circulation. A more wavy polar jet stream could favor the formation of blockages at high latitudes and allow cold air outbreaks around the Peninsula.
If this scenario is confirmed, storms could increase in some inland areas and in the mountain ranges of the southern peninsula, where precipitation could be above the average for the season.
A month marked by heat and irregular storms
The forecast for June paints a month that is likely to be warmer than usual in much of Spain, with a particular impact on the interior. As for storms, the scenario will be more variable: less activity in the first half of the month and the possibility of upticks in the second, especially if cold air outbreaks at altitude consolidate.
For now, the clearest signal is that of above-average heat, while the evolution of rainfall will continue to depend on specific stormy episodes that are difficult to pinpoint several days in advance.