The war in the Middle East has taken a qualitative leap in recent hours with direct impacts on critical gas infrastructure, raising the risk for global supply and straining the markets.
The attacks on facilities linked to the South Pars field, in Iran, and the subsequent actions on energy nodes in the Gulf have introduced an element that analysts considered the main breaking point: the direct impact on the production and transport of natural gas.
In parallel, markets have reacted with volatility. European gas has registered strong increases in recent sessions and oil remains at high levels, in an environment in which central banks are beginning to recalibrate their expectations in the face of the risk of persistent inflation.
The war unleashes a global energy and financial shock
According to Reuters data, natural gas in Europe soared by up to 35% in a single session after cross-attacks on key infrastructure, while oil has accumulated increases of over 40% in the last month since the start of the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran.
The impact is not limited to energy. The war is forcing central banks to recalibrate their strategy. The market has already ruled out rate cuts in the United States this year, while the door is opening to additional hikes in the United Kingdom and the eurozone. The reading is clear: the war not only strains prices, but also prolongs the monetary tightening cycle and raises the risk for the global economy.
In parallel, the war has caused a sharp correction in the debt market, with yields at multi-month highs. The two-year German bond has risen more than 50 basis points in March, while the British one exceeds 80 basis points. “Every day that passes without a resolution to the war increases the risk of a more adverse scenario,” international analysts warn.
The most critical element continues to be energy control. Although oil has corrected slightly in recent hours, it remains at very high levels -above 100 dollars a barrel in the case of Brent- and analysts rule out a return to pre-war prices in the short term. The risk of interruptions in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz keeps markets under pressure in a scenario in which, as experts point out, “the shock is already inevitable”
The Government tensions Indra in the midst of the energy war and when Europe accelerates rearmament
The impact is not only energetic. The escalation has reinforced a trend that was already brewing in Brussels: the need to reinforce own capabilities in strategic sectors.
Defense, energy, and technology are once again at the center of the European agenda, with a sustained increase in military spending and growing pressure to consolidate industrial players capable of competing with the United States and China.
In this new framework, the size, industrial integration and execution capability have become determining factors.
Indra, at the key moment
In Spain, that debate materializes around Indra, called to play a central role in the construction of a national player with European projection.
The company closed 2025 with a profit of 436 million euros, 57% more than the previous year, and an order book exceeding 16 billion, driven by defense modernization programs.
In addition, it participates in strategic initiatives such as FCAS and has strengthened its positioning in defense systems, in line with the expansive cycle of the sector in Europe.
The operation is punished with EM&E
The main corporate movement around the company -the integration with Escribano Mechanical & Engineering (EM&E)- has been annulled after the objections raised by the State Society of Industrial Participations (SEPI) and the political pressure from the Government on the strategic company of Spanish defense.
The operation was called to reinforce the group's industrial capabilities, especially in manufacturing and terrestrial systems, at a time when scale has become a requirement to compete in major European programs.
Sources from the sector point out that, without this integration, the alternatives to gain size within the national market are more limited and fragmented.
Doubts about the SEPI
While the Executive promotes investment vehicles such as España Crece, with the aim of channeling around 100,000 million euros towards the productive economy, the development of corporate operations in strategic companies also becomes a test of credibility.
The way these processes are managed, especially in sectors like defense, conditions Spain's perception as an investment destination and the markets' confidence in the State's ability to act as a reference shareholder.
In this context, the actions of the State Society of Industrial Participations (SEPI) are under scrutiny, not only for the immediate impact on companies like Indra, but for what it projects outwards.
Beyond the Indra case, the image of a public manager capable of offering predictability, rigor, and strategic alignment with the market is at stake at a time in which the dialogue between State and and company is key to attracting capital and consolidating large-scale industrial projects.
A matter of strategic timing
In general, the halt in the Defense operation introduces an element of uncertainty at a particularly sensitive moment for the sector. The current international context -marked by military escalation, pressure on energy markets, and the reinforcement of defense spending- is accelerating consolidation processes across Europe.
In this scenario, the issue is not limited to governance or the shareholding structure, but to the definition of a clear industrial roadmap. The ability to gain scale, integrate capabilities, and position oneself in European programs will be decisive in the coming years.
As of today, that strategic definition, in an environment of maximum geopolitical acceleration, is the element that continues to concentrate the attention of the markets. Indra has been falling in the markets in recent days, which introduces a factor of strategic debildiad for Spain at an ommento of global military acceleration.