Creand Asset Management (AM) estimates that a 20% increase in crude oil prices is reflected in an increase of close to 10% in gasoline prices and, indirectly, in an increase of three tenths in inflation in the United States.
The management company emphasizes that, despite the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply passes, prices have not reached the most extreme levels that the market had anticipated. Currently, barely one oil tanker a day transits this route, compared to the 30 daily ships that did so before the crisis.
"The situation is dragging on much longer than one might expect," said the investment director of Creand AM, Miguel Ángel Rico, during an informative meeting where he detailed the firm's investment strategy for the second half of the year. Even so, he recalled that the initial forecast was that "it would be a real economic drama."
At around 2:17 PM this Wednesday, the Brent crude barrel, a benchmark in Europe, was up 1.60% to $92.92, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 1.88% to $89.96. So far this year, Brent has risen 52% and WTI has appreciated 56%.
Creand AM attributes the relative moderation in oil prices to several factors: the expectation of a possible de-escalation in the region, the role of the United States as a major exporter of liquefied natural gas, and the use of strategic reserves by China.
For reference, the probabilities recorded in Polymarket bets give around a 30% chance that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will normalize before the end of July, compared to the 70% that was being considered a few weeks ago.
Even so, the entity warns that the risk "remains open" if the traffic cut is maintained for longer. "The important thing is not where the oil is, but how long it stays high," the firm remarked.
In parallel, the general director of Business and Investments of Creand AM, Luis Buceta, anticipated a rebound in investment in the energy sector once the conflict in the region is concluded.
"There will be a lot of investment that, tangentially, will benefit energy companies. And all that investment will eventually cause some deflation in future crude oil prices," he pointed out.