Funcas calculates that inflation will rise to 4.9% in September and will remain above 4% in the following months, placing the annual average at 3.6% this year and at 2.9% in 2027, according to projections released this Tuesday.
According to the definitive data published this Tuesday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE), which confirm the preliminary figures from the end of last month, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased its year-on-year rate by seven tenths in August, reaching 4.3%, its highest value since February 2023, when it reached 6%, driven by the rise in fuel prices.
The CPI record for August has exceeded Funcas's initial estimate, due to the evolution of services and energy products. Specialists have pointed out that, in the specific case of services, they continue to show the persistence of strong inflationary pressures, with a still very high rate of 3.9%.
For its part, energy products raised their inflation to 16.9%, with increases in electricity, gas, and especially in fuels, as a consequence of the partial withdrawal of certain tax cuts and the increase in the cost of raw materials.
In this context, the analysis center has admitted in a note that the projections remain subject to a very high degree of uncertainty.
Using a reference oil price of around 80 dollars and the reintroduction of tax cuts on hydrocarbons, Funcas maintains its forecast that the inflation rate will reach 4.9% in September and will be above 4% in the following months, with an annual average of 3.6% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2027.