The Funcas Panel has revised upwards by two tenths its growth forecast for Spain's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2026, which it now places at 2.5%, while keeping unchanged, at 2%, its estimate for the next fiscal year.
This adjustment for 2026 is explained by a better-than-expected evolution of the Spanish economy in the second quarter and, to a lesser extent, by a slight upward revision of the projection for the third quarter, whose growth rate is estimated at 0.5%.
According to the forecasts released this Wednesday by the experts, national demand will add 2.9 percentage points to growth --two tenths more than in the previous estimate-- while the external sector will subtract four tenths from the total GDP.
For 2027, the Panel maintains that the economy will grow by 2%, the same as in July. Regarding the breakdown of growth, domestic demand will contribute 2.2 percentage points --one tenth more than in the previous Panel-- and the external sector will detract two tenths.
Analysts expect that all components of national demand (private consumption, public consumption, and investment) will grow in 2027 at a slower pace than in 2026. The quarter-on-quarter variation rate of GDP would move around 0.5% in the first three quarters and would moderate to 0.4% in the last.
Inflation outlook worsens
In terms of prices, the forecast for the average annual inflation rate in 2026 is set at 3.4% for the general index and 2.9% for the core index, which represents two tenths more in both cases compared to what was calculated in July. For 2027, the rates are also revised upwards, to 2.5% for the general and 2.6% for the core.
In parallel, the Panel anticipates that employment will increase by 2.2% year-on-year in 2026 and by 1.7% in 2027, that is, two tenths more than in the previous consensus for each year. The unemployment rate would be at 9.9% on average this year and would decrease to 9.6% in 2027.
Public deficit, Euribor, and 10-year bond
In line with what was recorded in the July Panel, the consensus maintains that the public deficit will rise to 2.5% of GDP this year and that, looking ahead to 2027, the negative balance of public accounts will reduce to 2.3%.
The worsening of the international environment, and its translation into inflation and monetary policy, has led the one-year Euribor to be above 3.2%, that is, half a point more than in the previous round of forecasts.
Experts contemplate, however, some relaxation in the coming months, so that the euribor would close the year around 2.7%.
In this scenario, the rise in the profitability of debt reflects the markets' concern about the levels of public deficit in advanced economies. The Panel forecasts that these tensions will continue, so the profitability of the Spanish 10-year bond would approach 3.5% at the end of the forecast horizon.