Fund managers point out as the main threat to the markets "the increase in the risks of disorderly bonds" and a "strong price increase in the medium term in the unfavorable stock market," according to the global fund managers survey by Bank of America from September.
This scenario is chosen by 33% of the participants, displacing the risk of forming a bubble around artificial intelligence (28%), which had led the ranking in the previous survey.
The yields on sovereign debt globally began to rise at the end of August, coinciding with the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the increase in oil prices, which are around 106 dollars this Tuesday.
When asked about the trigger that would lead them to modify their overweight in public debt, 27% of respondents indicated that the yields on U.S. Treasury bonds should reach 6% at 30 years.
At the same time, although bond yields are perceived as the extreme risk, 42% of fund managers believe that the most likely source of a credit event would be "capital investment from hyper-scalers of artificial intelligence," compared to 38% in August.
The Fed, lagging according to managers
For the first time since September 2022, one in four fund managers believes that the Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) "is lagging" in its monetary policy strategy, although there is no consensus on the timing of future rate hikes.
52% believe that it will not raise rates before the November midterm elections -- compared to 72% in August -- while 41% do anticipate that it will carry out this upward move -- up from 22% previously.
In parallel, 46% of participants do not expect changes in the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds following the Fed's decision to double the volume of debt repurchases, compared to 29% who do foresee an increase in yield.
Regarding the economic cycle, 55% of respondents estimate that the economy will not land, 38% that it will do so "softly," and only 2% argue that the adjustment will be "abruptly."
In general terms, investors maintain an optimistic view of the macroeconomic context, although 33% identify as the main concern that companies "are investing too much."
Regarding asset allocation, respondents have cut their overweight positions in equities and commodities and continue with a marked underweight in bonds, with a special emphasis on the sectors of health, industry, and banking, in addition to a reduction in basic consumption.