KKR highlights Spain as one of the engines of the European periphery in its mid-year macro report.
The global investment firm places the Spanish economy among the most active markets in the region, noting that the European periphery, with Spain at the forefront, is showing stronger performance than the major industrial powers thanks to the push of domestic demand, the dynamism of tourism, and investment supported by public spending.
According to the report, this pattern is allowing countries like Spain to break away from the narrative of a homogeneous "weak Europe" and differentiate themselves from the trajectory of the continent's main economies.
The study emphasizes that these factors – household consumption, tourism-related services, and the deployment of public resources – are underpinning GDP growth in Spain in an international scenario marked by greater dispersion between regions and sectors.
KKR adds that the Spanish economy is also benefiting from underlying trends such as the digitalization of the service sector and infrastructure investments, areas it considers decisive in the new phase of the cycle.
In its global mid-2026 macroeconomic outlook, titled "The Divergence Dilemma," KKR states that the world economy continues to expand, albeit with increasing inequality between regions, sectors, and asset classes.
The document, prepared by Henry McVey, KKR’s Chief Investment Officer of Balance Sheet and Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation (GMAA), defines the current context as a "divergence dilemma": a cycle prolonged by a productivity boom, but strained by geopolitical fragmentation, concerns about energy security, and structurally higher inflation than before the pandemic.
In this environment, McVey's team emphasizes that central banks face a more demanding landscape as economies move away from an efficiency-centric model to prioritize resilience, redundancy, and control.
The "Security of Everything" and the new inflation cycle
The firm cites, among other major trends, the advancement of "Security of Everything," which transcends the defense sphere and extends to food, water, energy, and strategic raw materials, dimensions that also impact the Spanish productive fabric.
The report maintains that inflation will remain above consensus in most regions, while the global cycle of rate cuts loses strength.
By the end of May 2026, 10% of the 30 main central banks were raising rates, compared to 3% at the end of 2025, while only 40% continued to cut them, which tightens financing conditions for administrations and companies.
In the investment recommendations chapter, KKR suggests focusing on higher quality assets, diversifying towards assets linked to nominal GDP, and prioritizing projects backed by operational improvements.
The firm expresses its preference for corporate spin-offs, asset-backed cash flows, energy and electricity infrastructure, as well as initiatives related to the growing relevance of security, segments with particular weight for Spanish infrastructure, energy, and services companies.