Several pension specialists have denounced this Tuesday the short-term nature that, in their opinion, has dominated the debate on the future of the system and have urged to face its sustainability with a long-term perspective.
In a conference promoted by Funcas and the Association of Journalists of Economic Information (APIE), the professor of Sociology at UNED and researcher at Funcas, Elisa Chuliá, stated that the 2023 pension reform has implied a "paradigm shift" compared to previous modifications.
As she explained, while previous reforms had focused mainly on curbing the increase in spending, the latest revision has focused on reinforcing the system's income.
Chuliá has described this reform as a "lost opportunity" and has warned that some of the approved measures will be "very difficult to reverse," as they could come to be seen by citizens as consolidated rights.
At the same time, she lamented that the discussion on pensions has hardly any visibility in the public sphere, despite its relevance for the coming decades.
On the other hand, the professor at the University of Valencia and member of the Institute of Spanish Actuaries, Enrique Devesa, has described the 2021-2023 reform as a "flight forward" and has stressed the urgency of introducing structural changes that ensure the future viability of the system.
In his opinion, the approved measures have increased income, but have not sufficiently corrected the spending dynamics. Furthermore, he emphasized that the system has an "structural" problem and warned that "it will not be able to continue like this."
For his part, the researcher at the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF), Ignacio Fernández-Huertas, has remarked that any modification must be framed within a "realistic and credible" fiscal strategy that preserves the sustainability of all public administrations.
Immigration as limited support in the face of aging
Another focus of the conference was the analysis of the weight of immigration in the sustainability of the pension system.
Fernández-Huertas has argued that migratory flows contribute positively to economic growth and public finances, and recalled that AIReF has been forced to revise its migratory projections upwards in recent years due to the arrival of more foreign population than initially expected.
However, he has clarified that the organization's forecasts already take into account that these immigrants also age, retire, and will receive benefits in the future. According to him, even with current migratory flows, estimates point to a decrease in the working-age population from the mid-2030s.
In this regard, he has highlighted that the advancement of economic activity is one of the essential elements for sustaining both the pension system and public administrations as a whole.
Chuliá, for his part, has supported AIReF's conclusions and pointed out that immigration has a positive but "moderate" effect on the financial sustainability of the system. At the same time, he has called for broader evaluations that consider both the contributions made by the immigrant population and their use of various public services throughout their entire life trajectory.
Devesa has admitted that the incorporation of new workers helps maintain the pay-as-you-go system, although he has warned that these contributors also generate future pension rights. In this context, he has advocated for introducing a more complete actuarial vision in the examination of sustainability and has lamented the lack of actuarial balances comparable to those used in other countries.
The "elephant in the room" and the role of the Pacto de Toledo
Experts have also reflected on how pension reforms have been designed in Spain and on the little weight, in their opinion, that long-term considerations have in public discourse.
Chuliá has described the pension issue as "the elephant in the room" of Spanish society, considering that there is awareness of the challenges of aging, but little willingness to openly discuss the implications it may have on the system.
In this regard, he has pointed out that countries such as Sweden or the Netherlands have promoted more consistent reforms through prolonged processes of technical work and greater attention to the evidence provided by independent experts. In contrast, he has lamented that in Spain a more "short-sighted" logic dominates both in the political arena and in social discussion.
Likewise, he has questioned the role that the Pact of Toledo has played in recent years, considering that it has largely acted as a "protective umbrella" for decisions already agreed upon by governments, instead of consolidating itself as a genuine space for technical deliberation.
In the same vein, Devesa has recalled that some instruments provided for in previous reforms, such as the sustainability factor, were never put into practice despite having been approved, which, in his opinion, illustrates the difficulties in applying measures with long-term effects.
Notional accounts and the need for lasting reforms
Regarding reference models for future reforms, both Chuliá and Devesa have expressed their support for moving towards pay-as-you-go systems based on notional or defined contribution accounts, similar to the Swedish scheme.
As they have explained, these models consider contributions made throughout the entire working life, incorporate factors such as life expectancy, and allow for a more transparent calculation of pensions.
Chuliá has also advocated for the development of additional savings mechanisms, such as the so-called "Austrian backpack," and has defended strengthening supplementary social security through instruments that favor long-term savings.
Fernández-Huertas has reiterated, finally, that it is up to the political sphere to specify the design of the pension system. However, he has insisted that, regardless of the chosen model, it must be integrated into a sustainable and credible fiscal strategy that ensures the stability of public finances in the long term.