The Chamber of Commerce of Spain appreciates that the labor market has started 2026 with a more contained advance, although without indications of a "change of cycle", according to its analysis of the results of the Active Population Survey (EPA) corresponding to the first quarter.
According to the institution, after the data released this morning by the INE (National Institute of Statistics), job creation would have lost steam in the early stages of the year, with a rebound in unemployment to 10.8% and a quarterly decline in employment. However, the Chamber attributes these movements mainly to "seasonal factors" linked to the end of the Christmas season.
Despite this specific worsening, the organization emphasizes that the underlying trend continues to be favorable, with 527,600 more employed people than a year earlier and 80,600 fewer unemployed. In its opinion, these figures point to a normalization of the pace of employment growth, and not to a structural deterioration of the labor market.
The Chamber insists, in any case, that it remains essential to address the challenge of a still high unemployment rate when compared to that of neighboring European countries.
In this scenario, the entity foresees that the Spanish economy will continue generating employment in 2026, but with less intensity, estimating an average increase in employment of 1.6%, in line with its GDP growth projection of 2.3%.
The organization advances that this new stage of the "labor cycle" will be less supported by the carryover from good results from previous years and will depend to a greater extent on the economy's ability to sustain domestic demand, boost investment, and raise productivity, elements that it considers decisive for achieving more stable and higher-quality employment.
Likewise, it warns of an external scenario subject to multiple uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions, energy price volatility, and rising costs, factors that can condition companies' investment and hiring decisions.
2026 with internal support
In the domestic sphere, the Chamber underlines the coexistence of supports, such as the strength of consumption and the high level of employment, with constraints such as the budget extension, the return of European fiscal rules, and the lesser impetus of community funds.
From the business perspective, the institution highlights that the labor market maintains positive year-on-year behavior, but faces growing restrictions: difficulties in filling vacancies, lack of qualified profiles, and high labor costs that particularly impact SMEs.
In this regard, it warns that the mismatch between the supply and demand of talent can become a brake on hiring, while the reduced size of many companies limits their ability to invest, grow, and generate new jobs.
Given this context, the Chamber considers it a priority to deepen policies that expand the availability of talent, adjust training to the needs of the productive sector, strengthen public employment services, stimulate investment, and alleviate the administrative burdens and costs associated with hiring.