The inflation of the euro zone will continue to move around 3% during the rest of 2026, although its final trajectory will be greatly conditioned by the possible resolution of the crisis in the Middle East, according to the chief economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), Philip Lane.
"It will probably remain around 3% for the rest of the year," the Irish official indicated in an interview with the RTE1 network, reported by Europa Press, in which he emphasized that, although the context is not comparable to that of 2022, that level remains "well above the target of 2%."
According to the figures published by Eurostat, the year-on-year inflation of the euro zone reached 2.9% in July, one-tenth more than the price increase recorded in June.
Beyond the energy component, Lane recalled that, despite the fact that food inflation in Europe is currently at relatively moderate levels, climatic phenomena such as "El Niño" will "presumably exert greater upward pressure on inflation," especially in 2027, so food inflation "will be one of the main drivers of inflation over the next year."
In parallel to the evolution of energy, he focused on the need to also assess the effect of artificial intelligence on the global economy. "We must analyze everything in an integrated manner," he explained.
Nonetheless, Lane insisted that the behavior of prices in the euro zone "depends a lot on whether the crisis (in the Middle East) is resolved," describing the current scenario as "really uncertain."
"If we have an indefinite war in the Middle East, the relatively benign impact it has had on the global economy so far could change," he warned, while reiterating that, "in the face of uncertainty, our commitment is fundamentally not to spend time talking about possible interest rate hikes in the future."
The chief economist of the ECB emphasized that the decisions on interest rates made by the Governing Council of the institution will continue to be guided by the objective of ensuring the return of inflation to 2% in the medium term.