The Ibex 35 has started this Monday, July 13, in negative territory and, after the first few minutes of trading, is down 0.41%, to 19,304.40 points. The increase in the price of oil due to the escalation between the United States and Iran is punishing airlines, construction companies, and consumer companies, while Repsol, Telefónica, and Cellnex are resisting at the forefront of the selective index.
The Spanish index has reached a maximum of 19,332.80 points and a minimum of 19,284 points as of 10:21 AM, after closing on Friday at 19,384.70 points. The opening confirms a cautious start to the week, although without a generalized flight from the stock market.
Oil is once again conditioning the Ibex
The main cause of the falls is outside of Spain. The Brent crude oil barrel is up around 4% and exceeds 79 dollars due to the worsening tensions between the United States and Iran and doubts about navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran stated over the weekend that it had closed this maritime route, while the United States maintains that commercial traffic continues to be open under US protection. The possibility of an interruption in part of the global crude supply has once again raised the geopolitical risk premium.
For the small investor, a sharp rise in oil has a double consequence. On the one hand, it favors companies dedicated to the extraction and marketing of hydrocarbons. On the other hand, it increases the costs for airlines, transporters, industries, and consumer companies, in addition to increasing the risk that inflation will take longer to fall.
Repsol leads the gains on the back of oil
Repsol leads the Ibex gains with an advance of 1.60%, to 23.49 euros per share.
The oil company directly benefits from the rise in Brent, as a more expensive barrel can improve the income of its exploration and production business. This is the usual market reaction when there is fear of a reduction in energy supply.
This movement explains why Repsol is performing better than the Ibex as a whole, although a prolonged escalation would also entail risks. Excessively expensive oil can slow down economic activity and subsequently reduce fuel demand.
Telefónica advances 1.6% and acts as a defensive stock
Telefónica is up 1.59%, to 3.582 euros, and is the second-best performing stock in the selective index.
The operator attracts purchases again on a day marked by risk aversion. Telecommunications are usually considered a defensive sector because they have recurring revenues and a more stable demand for services than companies directly linked to the economic cycle.
For the retail shareholder, the most significant fact is that Telefónica manages to advance while most of the market retreats. This relative behavior points to a search for refuge, although it will be necessary to check if the rise is maintained throughout the session.
Cellnex completes the group of rising stocks
Cellnex advances 1.29%, to 25.13 euros, and occupies the third position among the biggest gains.
The telecommunications infrastructure company shares with Telefónica a certain defensive consideration, due to the recurrence of its contracts. Furthermore, the market may be rewarding its ability to generate long-term income in an environment of greater uncertainty.
Acerinox, with an advance of 0.56%, and Naturgy, with 0.29%, are also among the few stocks that manage to escape losses during the opening.
IAG falls more than 2% due to rising fuel costs
IAG leads the Ibex declines with a drop of 2.14%, to 5.404 euros.
The group that owns Iberia, British Airways, and Vueling is one of the most sensitive stocks to a rise in oil prices. Fuel represents one of the main costs for airlines and, although they use hedging to limit sharp changes, a prolonged increase ends up pressuring their margins.
To this bill is added geopolitical uncertainty. An escalation in the Middle East can cause route diversions, cancellations, increased operating costs, and lower demand in certain destinations.
The fall of IAG thus reflects the opposite effect to that experienced by Repsol: the same increase in oil that benefits an oil company harms an airline.
ACS and Ferrovial suffer from rising costs
ACS loses 1.67%, to 118 euros, and ranks as the second worst-performing stock. Ferrovial retreats 1.23%, to 56.10 euros.
Large construction and infrastructure companies are exposed to the evolution of energy costs, materials, and financing. If oil fuels inflation again, central banks may be forced to maintain high interest rates for longer.
This scenario makes financing for large projects more expensive and reduces the present value of the income that companies expect to obtain in the future.
Solaria and renewables also find no refuge
Solaria falls 1.31%, to 18.51 euros, while Acciona Energía loses 0.72% and Endesa drops 0.69%.
Although renewable energies may benefit in the long term from the increased cost of fossil fuels, their stock prices are also very sensitive to interest rates. Renewable projects require large initial investments and depend largely on financing.
For this reason, the fear that energy inflation will delay interest rate cuts weighs more heavily at the opening than the possible strategic benefit of less dependence on oil.
Santander, BBVA, and CaixaBank drag down the banking sector
The large Spanish banks begin the week with moderate declines. Santander falls 0.58%, to 12.068 euros; CaixaBank loses 0.52%, to 12.46 euros; BBVA retreats 0.36%, to 22.40 euros; and Sabadell gives up 0.37%, to 3.207 euros.
Banks are receiving mixed signals. High interest rates for longer can favor margins on loans, but they also make financing more expensive for families and businesses, reduce loan demand, and increase the risk of defaults.
The performance of Santander, BBVA, and CaixaBank will be crucial for the day's outcome due to their significant weight within the Ibex and the wide following they have among retail investors.
Iberdrola holds up better than Endesa
Iberdrola limits its decline to 0.10%, to 20.88 euros, showing more resilience than Endesa, which loses 0.69%.
Utilities typically act as defensive stocks due to the stability of their revenues and their dividend policies. However, they are also affected by rising debt yields, as their shareholder returns compete directly with bonds and other assets considered safe.
Iberdrola's resilience shows that part of the market is seeking stable companies amidst uncertainty, although without completely abandoning caution.
Inditex falls nearly 1% amid fears of more inflation
Inditex retreats 0.91%, to 54.46 euros.
The increase in energy prices can raise production, transportation, and distribution costs. It also reduces consumers' purchasing power, as they must allocate a larger portion of their income to fuel, electricity, and other basic expenses.
As a company with extensive international operations, Inditex is also exposed to the evolution of the dollar and major currencies. The strengthening of the US currency can benefit the conversion of some sales, but it also increases certain costs and financial volatility.
Asian stock markets anticipate a difficult day
The European session follows a sharp drop in Asia. South Korea's Kospi plummeted by more than 8%, temporarily triggering a trading halt mechanism, while Japan's Nikkei closed down 1.7%.
The sell-off particularly affected technology and semiconductor companies, amid renewed doubts about the valuations reached by businesses linked to artificial intelligence.
In Europe, the German DAX and the French CAC are down around 0.2%, while the London Stock Exchange manages to remain slightly positive. The Ibex registers a slightly larger drop, close to 0.4%.
Wall Street points to a red opening
US stock futures also anticipate losses. The Nasdaq, particularly exposed to the technology sector, is down around 1.1% before the opening.
The US market also has a week full of key events ahead. On Tuesday, US inflation data will be released, and the second-quarter earnings season will begin, with the results of major banks and semiconductor manufacturer TSMC among the most anticipated events.
The concern is that rising oil prices will once again boost inflation and force the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates or even consider further increases.
Dollar and bonds reflect the search for safe havens
The dollar is strengthening against major currencies, while US bond yields are rising. The yield on the two-year Treasury bond reaches its highest level since February 2025.
This movement indicates that investors expect high interest rates for longer and are reducing their exposure to assets considered higher risk.
Gold falls 1.4%, to around $4,060 per ounce, while silver loses nearly 3% and bitcoin retreats more than 2%, to stand at around $62,800.
What the small shareholder should watch out for today
The first reference is at 19,300 points. The Ibex is moving very close to that level and has fallen to 19,284 points during the morning.
If the selective clearly loses that zone, selling pressure could increase. If it manages to recover it and approach 19,400 points again, the opening could be a limited correction.
It will also be important to follow the evolution of oil. Brent above $80 would increase the punishment for airlines, construction companies, and consumer companies, while it would continue to support Repsol.
The third key will be banking. If Santander, BBVA, and CaixaBank deepen their falls, the Ibex will have difficulty recovering due to the high weight of the financial sector. If they stabilize their prices, the index could contain the losses.
The opening therefore leaves a divided market: oil drives Repsol and favors some defensive stocks, but penalizes IAG, construction companies, and a large part of the banking sector. The evolution of the tension between the United States and Iran will mark the direction of the rest of the session.