The consultancy Tempos Energía warns that the strong penetration of photovoltaics will cause a marked imbalance in the electricity bill during August: the central hours of the day will register very low prices, between 28 and 45 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), while in the night period quotations will skyrocket to a range between 122 and 140 euros per MWh.
Looking ahead to August and September, the company forecasts that the average price of electricity will be in a range between 80 and 95 euros per MWh. The so-called solar shield, which acts as a bill buffer during the summer, will "collapse" with the arrival of winter. Antonio Aceituno, CEO of Tempos Energía, recalls that in December "solar barely covers a third of the demand and generates two and a half times less than in August".
"Without the solar cushion," gas will once again set the marginal cost of electricity. For this reason, the consultancy estimates that the price for the last quarter of the year could range between 85 and 120 euros per MWh. The filling of European storage, the recovery of the Qatar plant, and the evolution of the war between the United States and Iran are, according to Tempos, the three key factors that could push the bill up to 120 euros, "almost triple the pre-crisis winter and 70% higher than the previous year".
This context translates into a particularly burdensome end to the semester for gas. At the end of June, the average price was around 40 euros and, in the last three weeks, it has increased to approach 45 euros per MWh. The main cause is that "supply continues to be unrecovered": Qatar is only exporting a fifth of what it sent a year ago today, and LNG carriers have barely returned to the Strait of Hormuz, well below the pace prior to the conflict.
With expensive gas, Europe faces the challenge of completing its reserves and, as Aceituno emphasizes, "it is not succeeding." The storage level is below half its capacity, twenty-three points below the average of the last three years. To meet Brussels' objectives, European countries are forced to attract more gas shipments during the summer in order not to fall below the required 90 percent fill level. Added to this pressure is the total ban on the purchase of Russian gas from January 2027 and the impact of a historic double heatwave that has taken one in ten nuclear megawatts in France out of service.
The apparent truce in the conflict between the United States and Iran "is broken almost weekly," and European gas reacts nervously to any news in the Strait of Hormuz. In parallel, attacks have severely damaged the Ras Laffan plant, the world's largest gas export facility. Aceituno insists that "every hint of escalation forces a repurchase of security, and the price of gas rises. Volatility is not noise; it is the pulse of a peace that does not yet exist."
Meanwhile, the oil market acts as if the conflict were resolved. Brent has been eliminating almost all the risk premium associated with the war and has gone the other way, rebounding more than 40% from previous levels. In Aceituno's words, "European gas is tied to a single track and, above all, to a supplier without a replacement."
Regarding futures markets, "the electric winter does not look at today's gas price" but at the availability of gas when the cold arrives. Therefore, investors ignore the temporary price drop and pay for the fear of shortages. Futures for the last quarter of the year are trading around 89 euros, and the first quarter of 2027 is at 73.30 euros per MWh, reflecting the risk of the winter's start, not the one currently underway, given that the uncertainty about deposits will have been cleared up in the previous quarter. Aceituno concludes that "the closer the cold gets, the less what gas does today matters." Only spring appears as the cheapest segment of the curve, with prices around 45 euros thanks to renewable energy input.
In parallel, the crude oil market keeps its focus on the Strait of Hormuz, although there is an underlying element that could influence prices and which, for now, goes unnoticed: the need to replenish around 400 million barrels after the war. The analyst maintains that "if governments buy soon, the bearish price will hold, but if they wait, the surplus will sink the price."
According to Tempos Energía's estimates, Gulf production will not fully normalize until 2027. For now, about 9 million barrels per day remain blocked, due to producers' uncertainty about tanker safety. Aceituno recalls that the current truce expires in mid-August.
In this scenario, the consultancy proposes three possible trajectories for Brent. In the base case, the barrel would trade between 65 and 76 dollars, a range that, in the expert's opinion, "is neither expensive nor cheap" and which is also supported by the financial entity Morgan Stanley.
Returning to a bullish scenario would imply a return to 2023 and 2024 levels, with a barrel between 82 and 95 dollars. This rebound could materialize from mid-August, when "Iran begins to charge tolls in Hormuz and the market cannot respond to the lack of reserves."
The third scenario, a bearish one, would place the price of crude between 58 and 66 dollars if supply continues to increase. In that case, Aceituno points out that "we would be talking about the lowest prices in five years." Currently, Brent is trading around 69.24 dollars, as if the war had concluded, but with the buffer of reserves practically depleted. The technician warns that "that price hides the greatest statistical rarity of crude oil so far this century."
The extreme volatility of Brent is reflected in the price range recorded in just twelve weeks: crude oil has reached a high of 138.21 dollars and, shortly after, has lost almost half its value, nearing its annual low. This sharp correction is explained by the progress of negotiations on the conflict, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the return to the market of one hundred million barrels that were held back. Tempos dubs this phenomenon the 'plug effect': bottled-up crude floods the markets in a matter of days and represents "the first sign that the market no longer fears a shortage of crude, but rather an oversupply."
The perception of surplus is supported by the strong increase in OPEC production, with an additional 2.34 million barrels per day in a single month and a new increase of 188,000 barrels per day expected in August. Saudi Arabia has already recovered 90 percent of its pre-conflict exports, and joint Persian Gulf sales have exceeded 10 million barrels per day.
"Supply is now arriving in greater volume than before the conflict, and it is doing so when global consumption is moving in the opposite direction." China, the main industrial importer, has cut its purchases by 29 percent year-on-year, to the lowest level in eight years, and has approved the largest cut in six years in retail gasoline and diesel prices.