The Andalusian campaign enters its first major turning point this Monday with the RTVE electoral debate, the first of the two major debates planned between the main candidates for the Junta. The meeting brings together Juanma Moreno, PP candidate and Andalusian president; María Jesús Montero, PSOE candidate; Manuel Gavira, from Vox; Antonio Maíllo, from Por Andalucía; and José Ignacio García, from Adelante Andalucía.
The debate is held starting at 21:45 and comes when polls place the PP as the leading force, although with an absolute majority as the big unknown. It will be the first debate of the campaign and remember that it will be the first of the two debates that the candidates will face until the elections on May 17.
Thematic blocks
The debate will have three major thematic blocks. The first will be focused on the economy, with special attention to employment, taxation, the productive model, industry, the countryside, the self-employed, and Andalusia's capacity to sustain growth.
The second will revolve around social policies, where health, education, dependency, housing, public services, and territorial equality will predictably be included. The third block will address regional financing, pacts, and democratic regeneration, the most political terrain of the night and probably the most uncomfortable for Moreno and Montero: for the PP, due to the possibility of needing Vox; for the PSOE, due to the situation of the central government and the erosion of its brand in Andalusia.
What do the polls say?
Polls show a favorable campaign for the PP, but not a closed one. The latest average published by RTVE placed Juanma Moreno around 55 seats, just at the threshold of absolute majority, while the PSOE would fall to about 27 deputies, far from its historical results in Andalusia. This scenario turns the debate into a test of endurance for Moreno and an almost obligatory opportunity for Montero, who needs to alter the campaign dynamic and turn the five-way face-to-face into a direct clash with the Andalusian president.
Demócrata has also published recent polls that point to the same underlying key: Moreno remains first, but the absolute majority is not guaranteed. The latest poll by Sociométrica for El Español collected by Demócrata places the PP at 58 seats, with the risk of falling below 55 if it loses mobilization in decisive provinces such as Córdoba, Málaga, and Huelva. Another poll published this Monday even presents a scenario in which Moreno could lose the absolute majority, with a PSOE in a very adverse situation and Vox on the rise.