Survey Andalusian elections: Moreno consolidates absolute majority, PSOE remains at minimums and Vox stagnates, according to Sigma Dos

Juanma Moreno faces the last week of the campaign at his best moment. The new Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo places the Popular Party between 55 and 58 seats, which guarantees an absolute majority and even opens the door to repeating the historic result achieved in 2022.

With 44.7% of the votes, the PP would improve its result from four years ago by 1.6 points and would consolidate Moreno as the great dominator of the Andalusian political scene.

Moreno could repeat the 58 seats of 2022

The poll confirms that the Andalusian president not only maintains his majority intact, but also reaches the final stretch with real options of reissuing the "absolute majority" he obtained four years ago. In the worst-case scenario, the PP would achieve 55 deputies, just the threshold that guarantees control of Parliament. In the best case, it would reach 58 seats again.

The fidelity of the popular vote already reaches 93.1%, one of the highest recorded in the entire campaign.

The PSOE improves slightly, but remains on the verge of another historic low

María Jesús Montero would obtain between 27 and 30 seats with 24.7% of the votes. Although it improves compared to other polls, the PSOE still does not guarantee the repetition of the 30 deputies that Juan Espadas achieved in 2022. The result would keep the socialists very far from the PP and would confirm the enormous difficulty of the party in recovering its old hegemony in Andalusia.

Vox slows down and could even lose a seat

Santiago Abascal's party gets stuck at 12.9% of the votes and between 13 and 14 seats. This means Vox could match or even worsen the 2022 result. After growing strongly in Extremadura, Aragón, and Castilla y León, the party fails to transfer that dynamic to Andalusia and is practically excluded from any capacity for influence if the PP consolidates an absolute majority.

Adelante Andalucía continues to grow and nears Por Andalucía

Adelante Andalucía confirms its rise and would reach between 4 and 5 seats with 6.7% of the votes. Por Andalucía would remain between 5 and 6 deputies with 7.5%. The distance between both forces narrows and the leadership of the space to the left of the PSOE is left more open than ever.

The campaign boosts the PP and wears down Vox

The evolution of Sigma Dos reflects a clear trend: the PP has been growing steadily during the campaign, while Vox has lost steam and the PSOE has only experienced an insufficient improvement. Moreno's message of avoiding "trouble" with Vox seems to have particularly resonated with voters of Abascal's party.

The sum of PP and Vox would reach between 68 and 72 seats, compared to a maximum of 41 for the entire left. The conservative bloc continues to clearly dominate and the only real unknown is whether Moreno will govern alone or with an even broader majority.

A decisive week, but with Moreno as the absolute favorite

Six days before the elections, Sigma Dos's central scenario is resounding: Juanma Moreno has an absolute majority within reach, the PSOE continues to be far from disputing the leadership, and Vox misses the opportunity to become decisive. If the polls confirm this picture on May 17, the Andalusian president will consolidate one of the most solid territorial leaderships in all of Spain.

Source: Sigma Dos for El Mundo, published on 11/05/2026