Survey Andalusian elections: Moreno risks absolute majority in the remainder, PSOE sinks and Vox stagnates, according to IMOP

Juanma Moreno faces the last week of the campaign with an absolute majority within reach, but still without a mathematical guarantee. The new IMOP poll for El Confidencial places the Popular Party between 54 and 56 seats, right at the threshold separating the possibility of governing alone from the need to depend on Vox.

With 42.8% of the votes, the PP would barely fall three tenths compared to 2022, which confirms the extraordinary electoral resistance of Moreno after eight years at the head of the Junta. The result, however, will depend on the distribution of the last seats in the eight Andalusian provinces, where a few thousand votes can decide whether or not he retains an absolute majority.

Moreno doubles up on PSOE and maintains control of the board

The poll consolidates Juanma Moreno's leadership and outlines a scenario of almost total political hegemony. The PP would obtain practically double the seats of the PSOE, which would be left with between 25 and 27 deputies. The gap between both parties exceeds 21 points in vote percentage and confirms that Andalusia continues to be, as of today, the main territorial bastion of the Popular Party.

Montero is heading for the worst historical result for the Andalusian PSOE

María Jesús Montero continues without managing to mobilize the socialist electorate. IMOP attributes 21% of the votes to her, 3.1 points less than in 2022 and up to five seats less than those obtained by Juan Espadas. The PSOE not only loses ground to the PP, but also continues to cede space to formations to its left, which aggravates the deterioration of the party in the community it governed for 37 years.

Vox grows, but loses strength in the final stretch

Vox would consolidate itself as the third force with between 17 and 19 seats and 14.4% of the votes. Although it slightly improves its 2022 result, Manuel Gavira's party loses momentum compared to the April poll and moves away from the growth registered in Extremadura, Aragón, and Castilla y León. Santiago Abascal's party remains decisive if the PP does not reach 55 seats, but its expansion capacity seems to have slowed down.

Adelante Andalucía almost ties with Por Andalucía

The big novelty in the alternative left is the strong advance of Adelante Andalucía. The candidacy of José Ignacio García rises to 7.7% and could achieve between 4 and 6 seats, practically tied with Por Andalucía, which reaches 7.8%. Both formations grow, but their separate concurrence reduces the efficiency of the vote and hinders broader representation.

The right is 23 points ahead of the left

The sum of PP, Vox and SALF reaches 59.2% of the votes, compared to 36.5% for the left-wing bloc. The difference between both blocs is close to 23 points and confirms the profound electoral imbalance that Andalusia is going through a week before the elections.

The poll detects a 25% of voters who have not yet decided their ballot. The highest levels of indecision are concentrated among young people aged 18 to 34 and among women.

A crucial week to decide if Moreno governs alone

The IMOP poll confirms that the PP has victory assured, but not the way it will govern. The big unknown is whether Juanma Moreno will manage to retain the absolute majority or if he will need the support of Vox to remain in San Telmo. The answer will depend, literally, on the leftovers, called in Andalusia "the little leftovers".

Source: IMOP for El Confidencial, published on 11/05/2026