The Ceuta crisis does not alter the advantage of PP and Vox, but it does consolidate Santiago Abascal's formation at its highest level within the right-wing bloc. According to the survey by NC Report for La Razón, conducted between July 31 and August 4, Vox rises to 18% of the votes and would obtain between 61 and 63 seats if general elections were held now.
PP would win again with 34.2% and a range of between 145 and 147 deputies. The sum of PP and Vox would reach between 206 and 210 seats, well above the absolute majority, set at 176.
In the other bloc, PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos would remain at 34.6% of the vote. PSOE would obtain 25.2% and between 101 and 103 seats; Sumar would drop to 5.9% and would move between eight and 10 deputies; and Podemos would reach 3.5% and between two and three representatives.
The survey was published by La Razón this Monday and was conducted in the midst of the Ceuta crisis, after the massive entry of immigrants into the autonomous city and the political debate about the Government's response, Morocco's pressure, and border security.
What changes compared to the previous NC Report: Vox rises, PP cedes a few tenths, and PSOE improves slightly
The comparison with the previous NC Report survey allows for a more precise reading. There is no new sinking of PSOE compared to July. In fact, the socialists improve slightly: they go from 25% to 25.2% and from a range of 99-100 seats to another of 101-103 deputies.
The most relevant movement is in Vox. In July, Abascal's party appeared with 17.8% and between 60 and 62 seats. In the new measurement, it rises to 18% and is positioned between 61 and 63 deputies. The rise is small, but politically significant because it occurs in the midst of the Ceuta crisis and because it reinforces Vox as an essential partner of PP.
PP, for its part, drops slightly. In the previous NC Report, it appeared with 34.5% and between 146 and 148 seats. Now it is at 34.2% and between 145 and 147. Feijóo cedes three tenths and one seat in the range, but remains clearly as the leading force and maintains a wide advantage over Sánchez.
The sum of PP and Vox remains practically intact. In July, NC Report placed the bloc between 206 and 210 seats. In August, it repeats that same range. The reading is clear: although PP loosens a few tenths, Vox compensates for the movement and the majority of the right remains stabilized above 200 deputies.
For the PSOE, the data allows them to exit the psychological zone of less than 100 seats, but it does not change the substance of the problem. Sánchez would still be far from the 121 deputies obtained in 2023 and the sum of PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos would barely reach 34.6% of the vote.
PP and Vox maintain a wide majority of up to 210 deputies
The main conclusion of the survey is the strength of the block formed by PP and Vox. The PP would obtain between 145 and 147 seats. Vox would reach between 61 and 63. Together, both parties would sum between 206 and 210 deputies.
Even at the lower end of the range, the majority would exceed the absolute majority by 30 seats. At the upper end, the margin would reach 34 deputies.
The data confirms that, according to NC Report, the right would not depend on nationalist or regionalist parties to form a Government. Feijóo would need Vox, but the sum would be sufficient for an investiture and for a very comfortable parliamentary majority.
Vox doubles its representation compared to 23J
Vox is the party that improves the most in seats compared to the general elections of 2023. Then it obtained 33 deputies. Now, according to NC Report, it would move between 61 and 63. That is, it would practically double its representation in Congress.
In percentage of vote, Vox would go from 12.4% in the last general elections to the current 18%. The growth is 5.6 points. This advance changes the internal balance of the right-wing block. The PP would continue to be the leading force and would have more than 145 seats, but Vox would have a parliamentary weight much higher than that of the current legislature.
The PP wins clearly, although it drops compared to July
The PP would win the general elections with 34.2% of the votes. The figure represents a slight drop compared to the previous NC Report, when the popular party appeared at 34.5%. The range of seats also drops: from 146-148 to 145-147.
The fall is limited and does not alter the first position of Feijóo's party. The PP would still be above its parliamentary result from 23J, when it obtained 137 deputies.
The advantage over the PSOE would be nine points in vote and between 42 and 46 seats, according to the extreme of the range.
The PSOE improves a few tenths, but remains far from 2023
The PSOE stands at 25.2% of the votes and between 101 and 103 deputies. The comparison with the previous NC Report survey offers a slight improvement: two tenths more in vote and a slightly higher range in seats. However, the comparison with the general elections of 2023 remains very negative.
The PSOE obtained then 31.7% and 121 seats. With the current data, it would lose 6.5 points and between 18 and 20 deputies.
The poll also reflects low loyalty: only 67.8% of those who voted for the PSOE in 2023 would repeat now. 10.7% would go to the PP, 6.2% to Vox, and 10.5% would abstain.
The state left remains at 34.6%
The hardest figure for the progressive bloc is the sum of PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos. Together they would reach 34.6% of the vote. The PSOE would contribute 25.2%, Sumar 5.9%, and Podemos 3.5%.
La Razón emphasizes that this percentage is below other historical lows of the state left space, such as the results of 2000 and 2011.
The comparison has a clear political reading: the PSOE resists somewhat better than in the previous measurement, but the entire bloc remains in a very weak position.
Sumar still does not rebuild its space
Sumar would be at 5.9% of the votes and between eight and 10 seats. The formation remains very far from the 31 deputies obtained in 2023 by the candidacy that then also included Podemos.
The loyalty data is especially low: Sumar would only retain 37% of its voters. 24.5% would go to Podemos, 15.1% to the PSOE, and 19.8% would choose abstention. The fragmentation of the space to the left of the PSOE remains one of the main problems for converting votes into seats.
Podemos improves, but does not compensate for Sumar's setback
Podemos would obtain 3.5% of the votes and between two and three deputies. This result allows the formation to maintain presence in Congress, but does not compensate for the accumulated loss of Sumar nor rebuild the space that in 2023 ran united.
The sum of Sumar and Podemos would be between 10 and 13 seats, far from the 31 achieved by the joint candidacy in the last general elections. The alternative left maintains enough votes to influence some provincial distributions, but appears very weakened as a necessary partner of a progressive majority.
The PSOE loses votes to PP, Vox, and abstention
The transfer matrix is one of the keys of the poll. NC Report estimates that 10.7% of those who voted for the PSOE in 2023 would now lean towards the PP. Another 6.2% would vote for Vox and 10.5% would remain in abstention.
The flight to the right is greater than that which occurs in the opposite direction. Only 0.3% of PP voters would now move to the PSOE.
The data reflects that the socialist problem is not only one of demobilization. There is also a direct transfer to the right-wing bloc.
The PP better retains its electoral base
The PP maintains a voting fidelity of 83.8%. This means that more than eight out of ten Popular voters from 2023 would repeat now. The main leakage from the PP occurs towards Vox, with 11.1%.
Abstention among former PP voters stands at 3.6%, well below the 10.5% recorded among those who voted for the PSOE.
This difference helps explain the advantage of the right-wing bloc: its voters remain more mobilized and less undecided.
Vox has the most loyal electorate
Vox retains 88.4% of those who voted for it in the 2023 general elections. It is the highest loyalty among the main parties. Only 5.5% of its former voters would return to the PP, 3% would opt for SALF, and 3.1% would abstain.
The high retention of Vox explains why the party continues to grow even in a scenario where the PP remains the leading force.
The result confirms that Vox does not appear only as a receiver of discontented votes, but as a party with a very consolidated base already.
Participation would drop four points
The survey estimates a participation of 62.6%. In the 2023 general elections, it was 66.6%, so the drop would be four points. Abstention would rise to 37.4%.
NC Report calculates that this would mean more than 1.7 million fewer voters compared to the last election. The drop in participation particularly harms the left, as the PSOE and Sumar show significant leaks towards abstention.
Young abstention exceeds 50%
The age analysis leaves another high-impact data. Among young people aged 18 to 29, abstention would exceed 50%. According to NC Report's segmentation, in that age group, abstention would reach 50.7%.
The young vote appears very fragmented. In that group, Vox would stand at 11.8%, the PSOE at 10.4%, the PP at 9.7%, and Sumar at 6.9%.
The data is relevant because it breaks an automatic reading of the young vote as a progressive space. Abstention overwhelmingly dominates, and Vox appears ahead of PSOE and PP in that segment.
The vote by age favors the PP from 45 onwards
The PP obtains its best data in the older age brackets. Among voters aged 45 to 64, it reaches 23.2% of the electorate, ahead of the PSOE, which stands at 17.3%. Vox registers 10.1% in that group and Sumar 2.5%.
Among those aged 30 to 44, PP and PSOE tie with 17.3% and 15.3%, respectively, while Vox reaches 13.7%.
The pattern confirms a generational advantage for PP in the adult age groups and a better performance of Vox among those under 45.
| Party | Estimated vote | Estimated seats |
|---|---|---|
| PP | 34.2% | 145-147 |
| PSOE | 25.2% | 101-103 |
| Vox | 18% | 61-63 |
| Sumar | 5.9% | 10 |
| Podemos | 3.5% | 2-3 |