The Polish Secretary of State responsible for combating foreign disinformation, Marcin Bosacki, has pointed out that the most effective way to confront the threat posed by Vladimir Putin's Russia is through a stance of unity and firmness from European countries and NATO. At the same time, he has warned that if the war in Ukraine becomes even more complicated for the Kremlin, the Russian president could decide to intensify his hybrid offensive beyond the Baltic states, his main target until now, and extend it to the rest of the continent, including Spain.
Bosacki spoke at the conference "Two Seas, One Security Crisis: The European Challenge in the Baltic and the Mediterranean," held in Madrid under the auspices of the Polish presidency of the Council of Baltic Sea States. The meeting analyzed the different forms of hybrid pressure employed by Russia in this region, such as the sabotage of submarine cables, disinformation campaigns, or the instrumentalization of migratory flows, and warned that these tactics could be replicated in other European scenarios.
The high-ranking official from the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized that, to date, these hybrid operations have remained "below the threshold for NATO to activate Article 5, but it is not very far." Therefore, he insisted on the need to strengthen preparedness and coordination among allies to respond quickly.
"The more difficult the situation in Ukraine is for Putin," Bosacki emphasized, the more he "could compensate by escalating hybrid activities against European countries, particularly the Baltic states and perhaps Poland," he warned.
Along these lines, he called for the statements of the Russian president to be taken seriously, recalling that even before launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, he had explicitly stated his strategic objectives. According to Bosacki, Putin aspires to return to a map similar to that of the Cold War, while emphasizing that the Russian leader "is in a worse political and military situation than he was a couple of years ago."
Unity and Firmness Against Moscow
The Polish Secretary of State has emphasized that the decisive factor now is "to show solidarity and firmness," since "the only thing Russia and Putin fear is strength, nothing else." In his opinion, the more cohesive and determined European partners and the transatlantic relationship show themselves to be in the face of hybrid threats and in support of Ukraine, "the less likely it will be that Russia will go for more in the near future."
Bosacki has claimed that Poland, like the Baltic countries, warned in advance of the threat posed by the Kremlin and has defended its "Russophobia" prior to the invasion. For this reason, he has rejected the theses of those who continue to believe that Putin and his entourage will act pragmatically.
"We have seen what Putin is capable of in recent years in Ukraine," he has emphasized, ruling out that the Russian leader will change his stance when he has given no sign of change. "That is why we have to help Ukraine as much as possible, prepare ourselves" and also "be assertive" in the face of Moscow's provocations, he added, underlining that "Russia's objectives are imperialist and will not change."
A ceasefire would not reduce the threat
Stefan Ingvarsson, an Eastern Europe specialist at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI), has supported Bosacki's diagnosis. "We do not believe that a ceasefire will diminish the threat, on the contrary, it increases it," he stated.
According to Ingvarsson, "it is time to be firmer, to stand together behind Ukraine and among ourselves, because what is happening in the Baltic countries is linked to the preparation of various capabilities and the exploration of our weaknesses" by Russia.
Anna Maria Dyer, head of the International Security Program at the European Institute for International Affairs, has expressed a similar view, warning that "what Russia is doing in the Baltic countries it will probably try to do in other countries." "They are not going to stop," she warned, underlining that "other countries like Spain and the Mediterranean countries are in danger."
In her opinion, "they are testing us and if they succeed they will try it in Germany, in France, in Spain and in other countries." Dyer has emphasized that many of the Russian hybrid actions, such as cyberattacks, transcend the affected Baltic state and constitute a "shared threat."
Both Dyner and Ingvarsson have agreed on demanding closer cooperation and coordination among European partners and, regarding the so-called Russian ghost fleet, on using all available legal mechanisms to confront this challenge. The Polish expert has stressed that this fleet is not only linked to damage to submarine cables, sabotage, or environmental risks, but is also used for obtaining sensitive information.
Henrik Praks, a researcher at the International Centre for Defence and Security in Estonia, has pointed out that Putin's objective with this range of hybrid actions is to "create disturbances, sow fear" and, as far as possible, alter the geopolitical balance. These operations, he has remarked, are not limited to Russia's neighboring states, but also reach countries in Southern Europe.
A hybrid campaign that will continue
Praks has agreed with the other speakers that, even if a ceasefire is reached in Ukraine at some point, "this malignant hybrid campaign by Russia will not stop." Furthermore, he has predicted that "it will probably intensify because resources that are currently being allocated to Ukraine can be used." Consequently, he has argued that "we all have to be prepared."
For Ingvarsson, it is essential that all allies understand the dimension of the threat facing the Baltic countries, although he acknowledges that from Spain, Russia may be perceived as a distant risk. Therefore, he has advocated for a dialogue that allows for bridging differences. Ultimately, he has said, it is a matter of "political will" and making it clear that there will be a firm response to Moscow if an attack occurs against any member of the Alliance.
Dyer has added that, beyond the discussion about the goal of dedicating 5% of GDP to Defense by 2030, which Spain has already indicated it will not reach, "the important thing" is that it is evident that the Spanish government has "the will to comply with Article 5" of the NATO Treaty and come to the aid of any attacked ally.
The director of the Real Instituto Elcano, Charles Powell, has wanted to emphasize to the participants in the conference that Spanish society does perceive the Russian challenge. As an example, he has indicated that Russia is the second biggest threat to Spain, only behind Morocco, and that Putin appears among the worst-rated international leaders in the studies of this 'think-tank'.
Likewise, Powell has assured that "there is no doubt" that Spain would apply Article 5, as demonstrated by its contribution to the various NATO missions deployed to strengthen security on the eastern flank. "Its presence is greater than that of other southern European countries that have more capabilities," he stressed, calling for "not to underestimate the effort Spain is making."