‘Qué será, será. Whatever Will be, Will be’, sang the song popularized by Doris Day in 1956. It conveys a simple message: the future is uncertain and cannot be controlled, so there is no point in worrying excessively about what is to come. But one matter has the entire Spanish political and judicial board on edge. The decision of the CJEU on the amnesty law, which will be known this Thursday, will determine the future of Carles Puigdemont. Disregarding the song's advice, the Government, the opposition, pro-independence parties, and the courts have been anticipating scenarios, calibrating consequences, and weaving their respective narratives for days—if not weeks—. At stake is much more than the possible return of the former Catalan president. Nothing more and nothing less than the parliamentary logic that has sustained Pedro Sánchez to date and a potential reconfiguration of forces and alliances for the upcoming general elections.
The Court of Justice of the EU is not issuing a ruling on Puigdemont specifically, but the first major resolution on the amnesty law for the 'procés', based on preliminary questions raised by Spanish courts. His situation will be clarified, as it will determine whether the amnesty can cover embezzlement related to October 1st and certain terrorism offenses.
It will be the first major ruling on the amnesty law and will begin to unravel the knot around which Spanish politics has revolved since 2023
It will be the beginning of the end of an era. It will begin to unravel a knot around which Spanish politics has revolved since 2023, when Sánchez negotiated the amnesty law with the pro-independence movement. The parliamentary majority that sustains the socialist government was built upon this law, and once it is resolved, the logic of pacts could shift.
Potential Scenarios: What the CJEU Will Say
The CJEU's decision is confidential until its reading, and no one knows what it will say. What is known are the legal questions posed and the possible scenarios that jurists and parties are considering: from broad approval of the amnesty to partial corrections or a serious clash with EU Law.
As DEMOCRATA explained, the Luxembourg court will rule on the preliminary questions raised by Spanish bodies regarding the compatibility of the Amnesty Law with Union Law. Among these, doubts stand out as to whether embezzlement linked to 1-O (expenses of the referendum and external action of the ‘procés’) can be amnestied, and as to the European fit of amnesty in cases of terrorism linked to the CDR, in accordance with what was already advanced in the Advocate General's opinion.
The sensitive point for Puigdemont is embezzlement, a crime for which the Supreme Court denied him amnesty and he appealed to the Constitutional Court, which will be guided by what the CJEU says this Thursday.
There are three possible scenarios:
- The CJEU substantially upholds the Amnesty Law, which is the thesis closest to the Advocate General's opinion, which already stated that it is not a self-amnesty nor does it violate the financial interests of the EU. In this case, Puigdemont's return to Spain would be smoothed, prior to the withdrawal of the arrest warrant in force for almost nine years.
- The endorsement is partial and some aspects, such as deadlines or application criteria, must be retouched. The resolution could be delayed and become very complicated.
- A head-on collision between Luxembourg and Spain occurs, which would open a significant rift.
In political terms: how it affects the alliance map
The amnesty law was the central axis of the investiture agreement between Ferraz and Waterloo. If European doctrine strongly supports its application, Pedro Sánchez will gain breathing room and Junts will be able to present the agreement as effective and show political muscle.
His return —or not— has an almost existential dimension for a Junts in free fall in the polls. Barometers place Aliança Catalana above in the regional elections and they are losing momentum in the general elections. Amnesty is their main political asset and the CJEU will tip the scales: a favorable decision would strengthen Puigdemont and his return would mean an injection into their ranks, while a watered-down or contrary resolution would force Junts to decide between toughening negotiations with the PSOE or maintaining some stability (despite the announced breakup).
The ruling will also impact the socialists. Firstly, due to the new direction of relations with Junts and Puigdemont and, secondly, due to the dispute over the narrative with the PP. A CJEU favorable to the application of the amnesty would give a victory to the Executive, which will celebrate the European endorsement and will argue that its law complies with the Constitution and European Law. Facing them, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who will focus on any limit, warning, nuance, or but that the CJEU ruling may contain. The battle will be interpretive, not legal.
The Popular Party has long been approaching Junts. The spokesperson for Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) in Congress, Gabriel Rufián, does not miss an opportunity when he can to anticipate a pact between the two to bring Feijóo to Moncloa. And the truth is that the PP leader himself asks to “turn the page”.
Not less important is Friday's detail. The president of Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), Oriol Junqueras, will be the protagonist of an informative breakfast at Nueva Economía Fórum. By a twist of fate, 24 hours after the CJEU ruling. His intervention will provide clues as to how his party intends to capitalize on or react.
The Catalan Republicans have also negotiated the amnesty law with the Government and were the first to move towards an agreement with the PSOE. A favorable ruling will allow them to claim credit and would support their policy of rapprochement and thawing.
This whole cocktail that will modify the orbit of Spanish politics arrives at a crucial moment, with a legislature facing its final stretch, Budgets to be negotiated, and a growing pre-electoral climate.