The Sociological Research Center (CIS) will make public this Monday its Opinion Barometer for September, the first that includes vote estimation after the crisis caused by the massive entry of immigrants in Ceuta on July 30 and 31.
The demoscopic body directed by the socialist sociologist José Félix Tezanos does not produce a monthly barometer in August, so the one for September will be the first study to measure the electoral impact of the events in the autonomous city, which have marked the political agenda during the summer.
The fieldwork for this survey was carried out in the first days of September and coincided with the appearance in Congress of the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, in which he offered explanations about the Executive's management in the face of this crisis.
During that intervention, Sánchez announced the declassification of the warnings sent by the intelligence services about the massive entry, a decision that has generated tensions within the Government, especially between the Minister of the Interior, Fernando Grande-Marlaska, and the Minister of Defense, Margarita Robles.
Robles has maintained her support for the work of the National Intelligence Center (CNI) at all times, while Marlaska has reiterated that they did not receive any warning that alerted them to the magnitude of what ultimately occurred in the autonomous city.
Declassified documents and first resignation
The documents released last Wednesday show that the CNI had warned via WhatsApp to the chief of staff of the Government delegate in Ceuta of a "call" on social networks to carry out an "assault by fence and sea" on the autonomous city through the instant messaging application WhatsApp on July 29, on the eve of the massive entry of more than 70,000 immigrants from Morocco.
The chief of staff, Gonzalo Sanz, submitted his resignation this Friday, stating that he did "personally" convey that information to the Government delegate, Miguel Ángel Pérez Triano, thus contradicting the version offered the day before by the one who also holds the position of general secretary of the PSOE in Ceuta.
The PSOE maintained the lead in July
The July barometer, the first after the imprisonment of former minister José Luis Ábalos, once again placed the PSOE as the leading force, with a vote estimation of 33%, which represents a recovery of 1.7 points compared to June.
In contrast, the PP fell 2.1 points in a month and stood at 25.1%, so the gap between the two main parties, which in June had reached its lowest point in the last year, widened to 7.9 points, the second smallest since July 2025.
Vox remained in third place, with an estimate of 15.3%, five tenths less than in the previous survey, while Sumar dropped three tenths, to 6.1%.
The 'novelty' of the July survey was that Se Acabó la Fiesta (SALF), the party of MEP Luis 'Alvise' Pérez, recorded its second best mark in the CIS studies and surpassed Podemos in voting intention for the first time, which lost three tenths. In detail, SALF advanced seven tenths, to 2.6%, while Ione Belarra's party fell to 2.5%.