Although with less incidence than could be predicted (given their virulence and the affectation of in the territory), the fires had their presence in the two debates that have taken place between the candidates of the PP, the PSOE and Vox for the Castilla y León elections of next March 15th. It was expected, however, more prominence of the flames in the dialectic battle, and it seems complicated that the opinions of some and others will be able to move any vote.
As it is also difficult to know if the management of that fire that devastated part of the Community last summer, will have any reflection in the polls. The only possible reference is to analyze how the towns affected by the fires of the Sierra de la Culebra in 2022 voted in the closest electoral appointments (both previously and subsequently), that is, in the regional elections of February 13, 2022 (the fires broke out in June and July of that same year) and in the general elections of July 23, 2023.
Did the management of the fires take its toll on the PP (which governed in the Community)?, Did the citizenry punish the PSOE (which was at the head of the central Government)? With the logical caveats that arise from the fact that one does not vote the same in regional elections as in general elections, Demócrata inquires into the results and answers those questions.
Who was affected by the management of the Sierra de la Culebra fires of 2022?
The Sierra de la Culebra fires of 2022 affected 29 municipalities in the province of Zamora. To carry out this analysis, the 15 with the largest population have been taken into account. And the first thing that stands out (and which represents a clear difference motivated by the type of election) is the number of voters: 2,951 cast their ballot in the 2022 regional elections and 3,599 in the 2023 general elections.
Before the fires, the PP obtained 43.8% of the votes in these 15 municipalities. Behind them were the PSOE (31.6%), Vox (16.6%), Unión del Pueblo Leonés -UPL- (2.4%), Ciudadanos (2.4%) and Podemos (1.7%).
A year and a few months later (and 11 months after declaring the last fire extinguished), the PP took 50.6% of the support; the PSOE 30.4%; Vox 12.4%; Sumar 3.4%, and Zamora Sí 2.3%.
The direct conclusion, therefore, is that the PP was not penalized for the management of the fires, since it increased its percentage of votes. The PSOE dropped very slightly, Vox also fell and Sumar was positioned slightly above Podemos.
| Regional Elections - February 2022 | General Elections - July 2023 | |
|---|---|---|
| PP | 43,8% | 50,6% |
| PSOE | 31,6% | 30,4% |
| Vox | 16,6% | 12,4% |
| UPL | 2,4% | |
| Ciudadanos | 2,4% | |
| Podemos | 1,7% | |
| Sumar | 3,4% | |
| Zamora Sí | 2,3% |
What will happen in the next elections?
Democrat is doing a daily monitoring of the polls that are published about the Castilla y León elections and the conclusion is that the PP will win them, although it will continue to need the support of Vox to govern.
The most recent studies place the popular around 30-34% of the vote, while the PSOE moves close to 28-30%. Vox, for its part, appears as the party with the greatest growth and in some polls touches or exceeds 20% of the votes.
It is clear who will win the elections, but there is uncertainty about three key aspects:
- If the PP manages to govern with less dependence on Vox and increase in votes compared to 2022.
- If Vox consolidates its electoral growth and manages to break 20%, for the first time in regional elections.
- If the PSOE manages to stop its fall in the autonomous cycle, maintaining its results from the previous elections.