This Sunday, March 15, the Castilian-Leonese have an appointment with the polls, the third of this cycle of regional elections -after Extremadura and Aragon-. At stake, 82 procurators, distributed among the nine provinces of the community. Valladolid distributes the largest number of representatives, 15; followed by León with 13 and Burgos with 11. Salamanca completes the list, with 10; Ávila, Palencia, Segovia and Zamora, with seven each; and the five from Soria. What options does each candidate have and how does each party arrive?
A turning point?
Extremadura first, and Aragon later, indicate a clear trend: a collapse of the PSOE that the PP has not been able to capitalize enough so as not to depend on a surging Vox. However, the projection in Castile and León outlines a different scenario.
The polls indicate that the PP would barely move, as it currently holds 31 seats in the regional parliament and the polls give it between 29/32. The second force (in principle) would be the PSOE, which would manage to maintain itself. As of today, it has 28 representatives and the polls give it between 26 and 29. Even, in recent days there are voices speaking of a technical tie at 29 with the PP, which would represent a turning point in the trend drawn by previous elections. The one that continues to soar is Vox, which could go from 13 to 16/19.
They would complete the parliament -according to the polls-, UPL with three; IU with one; For Ávila one; and Soria NOW! Podemos, would be left out, just like Ciudadanos.
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Calendar
The Cortes of Castile and León that result from the ballot boxes will have to be constituted next April 14 at 11:30 hours, according to the foreseen calendar.
Once the Cortes are constituted, the procedure begins to elect the president of the Junta. The first investiture session must be held within the following 15 days, so April 30 will be the deadline for that first attempt.
In that vote, the proposed candidate will need the absolute majority of the Chamber to be invested. If he does not achieve that support, the Bureau of the Cortes, after listening to the Board of Spokespersons, will set the date for a second vote, in which it will be enough to obtain a simple majority, that is, more votes in favor than against.
The parliamentary regulation also contemplates the possibility of a political blockade. If within the period of two months from the first investiture session no candidate manages to gather the necessary support, the Cortes of Castilla y León will automatically dissolve and new regional elections will be called.