The Government and the pharmaceutical industry are monitoring the impact that the war escalation in Iran could have in a potential crisis scenario. The first consequences are already being felt. The sector warns that medical products do not escape the international logistics problems caused by the closure or reduction of air hubs in the Middle East, so the risk of shortages is real (there are already two generic medicines that are scarce). In addition, to the increase in transport, energy and operational costs, the rejection of batches due to temperature deviations at airports would have to be added. What is the real scenario and what measures are on the table?
The Ministry of Health, with Mónica García at the helm, links the impact on the supply of medicines to the duration of the conflict, as well as to the expansion of it to other territories.
Sources consulted by Demócrata acknowledge that, although no substantial incidents have yet been detected, the uncertainty cannot be ignored. Specifically, they admit that the factor with the greatest potential risk of destabilization in the chain is the increase in energy prices.
Medical products do not escape the problems of international logistics caused by the closure or reduction of air hubs in the Middle East
Health assures that the Spanish Agency of Medicines and Medical Devices (AEMPS) “is monitoring possible supply problems to see what actions can be carried out”. In any case, the European Union produces an important part of the medicines that are consumed and that this type of situation “highlights the need to continue working on the strategic autonomy of the region”.
The logistical problems
The production of medicines and active ingredients is articulated in a globalized network. Although Europe maintains relevant industrial capacity, a significant part of raw materials and components comes from third countries and any alteration in strategic trade routes or in transport costs can impact.
According to European and academic reports on the global supply chain, between 60% and 80% of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) used in medicines sold in Europe come from China or India. Logistics from these countries have not yet been affected, but Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz and airspace in the region has been severely affected.
In statements to Demócrata, the Spanish Association of Generic Medicines (AESEG) regrets that cargo capacity has been seriously limited due to the reduction of direct flights from India. This is already “causing delays in the release of batches as the necessary samples cannot be sent on time”. Furthermore, “air transport costs have increased between 30% and 100%, and maritime transport has also been affected by the suspension of transits in the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal, forcing routes to be diverted and adding 15–20 additional transit days”.
AESEG: “The costs of air transport have increased between 30% and 100%. There are also delays in the release of batches"
The AESEG states that “yes, the sector considers that there is a real risk that this situation will lead to a crisis” if logistical disruptions “last more than 4-5 weeks”. In fact, “the possibility of shortages of certain medicines” is already anticipated, specifically two: generic tadalafil and generic clopidogrel.
Generic Tadalafil is a medication that contains the same active ingredient as the brand-name drug Cialis. It is mainly used to treat erectile dysfunction and some symptoms of benign prostatic hyperplasia. For its part, generic Clopidogrel is a medication that acts as an antiplatelet agent, meaning it prevents blood platelets from clumping together and forming clots. It is the generic version of the brand-name medication Plavix and is frequently prescribed to prevent serious cardiovascular problems such as myocardial infarction or stroke in people at high risk.
The employers' association Farmaindustria assures that its associated pharmaceutical companies “have not been affected for the moment”. “The more than 180 production plants that the pharmaceutical sector maintains in our country continue working normally to guarantee the supply of medicines to our pharmacies and hospitals”, they add; although they also admit that the conflict represents a notable source of “uncertainty” and “volatility” in a geopolitical scenario “already complicated in itself”.
Commercial flows
The sector considers that it is still early to know if the war in Iran will have an impact on Spanish imports and exports of medicines in Asia and the Middle East.
According to Farmaindustria data, in 2025, Spanish imports of medicines from Asia stood at 943 million, 3.7% of the total. The main Asian countries supplying pharmaceutical products to our country were China (524 M€), India (180M€) and South Korea (83 M€). On the export side, Asia represented last year 12% of the total foreign sales of medicines from Spain, around 2,400 million, with an increase of 13% compared to 2024. The main markets were China (1,298 M€), South Korea (146 M€) and Japan (96 M€).
The sustainability of the industry, in check
The worst-case scenario for the industry would occur if the conflict became entrenched and the war prolonged. AESEG explains that “shortages could be triggered, especially in products dependent on air transport or affected maritime routes”. “If the war is prolonged, the situation could indeed resemble the impact that the war in Ukraine had on the sector, due to the increase in energy costs, the rising cost of raw materials, and the higher procurement cost due to the increase in maritime transport costs,” warns Farmaindustria.
Farmaindustria: “If the war drags on, the situation could indeed resemble the impact the war in Ukraine had on the sector"
The structural increase in costs —energy, fuels, transport, and materials like glass— would pressure the sustainability of many manufacturers. Logistic delays, delays in batch release, and quality risks would persist, with batches held in non-compliant conditions. In short, this would increase the fragility of the pharmaceutical supply to Europe.
Possible measures
The employers' association of the pharmaceutical industry anticipates that if the current crisis follows the evolution of the precedent of the war in Ukraine, with a high and lasting impact on energy prices, it could mean an increase in costs for pharmaceutical companies “similar to those recorded in 2022, when they exceeded 900 million euros in impact, almost 5% of the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry in Spain”.
Then, the blow was absorbed by the sector, and it would have to do the same again since “medicines are regulated” and “both in Spain and in our main export destinations, there is no possibility of passing on these extra costs to the selling prices of medicines”.
AESEG assures that companies have already activated internal crisis teams and are adopting measures such as prioritizing urgent shipments, seeking alternative routes, and reinforcing inventory tracking to anticipate possible shortages. “But institutional support is needed,” it assures, and the following measures would be desirable:
- Priority access to air cargo for essential medicines.
- Temporary flexibility in batch release processes when samples cannot be sent on time.
- Strengthen the monitoring of supply chains for active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and finished products.
- Evaluate measures to cushion the impact of rising energy and insurance costs.
The Executive, for the moment, does not contemplate measures directly applicable to the pharmaceutical industry. The first anti-crisis package will be deployed in the extraordinary Council of Ministers scheduled for this Friday. On the table, compensation for the transport and agri-food sector. The containment of energy prices and aid to logistics would alleviate the pharmaceutical sector. Meanwhile, Health monitors the situation in case intervention is necessary.