The weather forecast for Holy Week 2026 in Spain is starting to take shape two weeks before the start of the holidays and processions. The first analyses of atmospheric models suggest a very variable scenario with the possibility of rain in some areas of the country.
According to an analysis published by Meteored, based on the trends of the European model ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), the atmosphere could remain very dynamic during the days between Palm Sunday, March 29, and Easter Monday, April 6.
A weather pattern that favors weather changes
The subseasonal models of the ECMWF detect a higher probability of anticyclonic blocks or Atlantic ridges in high latitudes of Europe.
This type of configuration usually causes undulations of the polar jet, a phenomenon that favors:
- The formation of storms
- Cold air detachments
- Rapid changes in the weather
When these blockages are located in the center or north of Europe, the low-pressure systems tend to move towards the Iberian Peninsula. For that reason, the current maps suggest a scenario of changing weather, very typical of spring.
Where could it rain more
Although it is still early to make a concrete prediction, probabilistic maps indicate some preliminary trends.
Precipitation could be slightly above average in:
- Peninsular Southeast
- Balearic Islands
- Canary Islands
Meanwhile, in the north and northwest of Spain, the probabilities of rain could be somewhat below average for those dates.
In the rest of the country, a clear sign is not yet perceived. Meteorologists recall that rain is the most difficult variable to foresee in the long term, especially in spring.
Temperatures: without extreme heat for the moment
Regarding temperatures, current trends do not point to episodes of premature heat. In fact, some scenarios show values slightly below average, especially in:
- The Mediterranean
- The Ebro Valley
- Areas of the peninsular south
- Pyrenees
The differences would be small, around 1 or 2 degrees below normal for the season.
What is normal in Spain at the beginning of April
Historically, the weather at this time of year is very variable.
According to AEMET climate data, between late March and early April northern cities like Santiago, Vigo or San Sebastián can accumulate between 40 and 50 liters per square meter while in places like Almería, Lanzarote or Las Palmas the average is below 5 liters. Daytime temperatures usually exceed 20 ºC in Andalusia or the Canary Islands, while nights can still be cold in inland areas.
A forecast that can change
Experts recall that it is still not possible to know exactly what the weather will be like during Holy Week. Spring is one of the most unpredictable seasons in the Iberian Peninsula, and forecasts more than a week out can change easily. However, current trends from the European model point to a clear scenario: a Holy Week with very variable weather in Spain.