Madrid election poll: Ayuso would revalidate the absolute majority with up to 74 seats, according to Sigma Dos

The poll places the Popular Party in a range of between 73 and 74 seats in the regional Parliament, already expanded to 143 deputies, which would allow it to exceed with margin the threshold of 72 needed to govern alone.

The study reflects a notable stability in the Madrid political map, with few structural movements regarding the 2023 results. Then, the PP achieved 70 seats with 47.3% of the votes, two above the absolute majority, 68, in an Assembly that had 135 deputies. The expansion of the number of seats, a consequence of the region's demographic growth, now raises that bar, but does not alter the balance of power: Ayuso would not only retain her position, but would consolidate it.

The PSOE does not recover but overtakes Más Madrid

In the left bloc, the PSOE would obtain between 27 and 28 seats, practically in line with the 27 it achieved in the last regional elections, when it positioned itself as the second force with 18.21% of the votes. Más Madrid, for its part, would move between 26 and 27 deputies, also replicating the result of 2023, in which it obtained 27 seats and 18.37% of the electoral support. The picture drawn by the poll is that of a stabilized left, but without sufficient growth capacity to dispute the leadership with the PP.

Strong rise of Vox

For its part, Vox would experience a significant advance and would reach between 16 and 17 seats, improving on the 10 it obtained in 2023, when it registered 7.3% of the votes. This growth strengthens the right-wing bloc in the Community of Madrid, although without altering the central fact of the board: the PP would continue to be self-sufficient to govern.

Overall, the survey confirms a trend that has consolidated in recent years in the Community of Madrid: a solid leadership of the PP, a fragmented left that fails to articulate a government alternative, and a Vox that, although growing, does so without altering the dominance of the conservative bloc. The expansion of the Assembly introduces a new arithmetic framework, but the political substance remains practically intact.

A new scenario with more seats

These figures are produced in a new context: the Madrid Assembly goes from 135 to 143 deputies, due to the increase in population in the region.

This change raises the bar for the absolute majority, but does not alter the balance of blocs: the right maintains a dominant position and the left fails to close the gap despite the stability of PSOE and Más Madrid

Source: Sigma Dos for Telemadrid, published on 03/19/2026