The polls published in recent days before the vote point to a clear victory for the opposition party Tisza against Viktor Orbán's Fidesz. A survey by 21 Kutatóközpont, conducted between April 8 and 11, placed Tisza at 55% and Fidesz at 38%, with a 17-point lead.
Added to that photograph is Medián's estimate, considered by several media outlets as one of the most followed firms in Hungary, which placed Tisza at 56% and Fidesz at 38% in voting intention prior to the elections. Reuters also reported this Sunday that Medián's latest projection attributed to Tisza 135 seats in the Hungarian Parliament, above the threshold of 133 necessary to control a two-thirds majority.
What the supermajority means in Hungary
The key to these elections is not only in who wins, but in how much they win. In Hungary, a two-thirds majority allows for changing cardinal laws and touching central pieces of the institutional system built by Orbán since 2010. That is why the decisive factor is not only a simple majority, but the possibility of reaching or nearing 133 seats.
That is precisely the political leap that makes this election the most delicate for Orbán in 16 years. If Tisza falls one or two seats short of that barrier, the blow would already be enormous. If it surpasses it, the message would be even more devastating: not only would there be alternation, but a real capacity to dismantle part of the institutional scaffolding built by Fidesz. That reading is a reasonable political inference based on the value that international media give to the two-thirds majority in Hungary.
Maximum caution: they are not exit polls
There is an important nuance that should be made very clear in the piece: these figures are not exit polls, but rather surveys conducted in the days prior to the vote. The Guardian has precisely stressed that there were no exit polls at closing and that, furthermore, the Hungarian electoral system can distort the translation of votes into seats.
Even so, the underlying message of all independent polls was similar: Tisza arrived on election day with a solid advantage and with real options to achieve a very broad parliamentary majority. Reuters had already reported days earlier of another Medián projection that placed Tisza between 138 and 142 seats, also above the supermajority threshold.
Record participation and total pressure on the count
The day, furthermore, has been marked by an extraordinary mobilization. Participation reached 77.8%, according to information gathered at closing, a record figure that adds even more pressure on the scrutiny and reinforces the feeling that Hungary has experienced a breakthrough election.