General election poll: bipartisanship rises and Vox falls due to Trump, with Pedro Sánchez recovering leadership among young people, according to Sigma Dos

The poll confirms a shift towards bipartisanship with the right still in advantage. The latest Sigma Dos barometer detects a change in trend in voting intention: PP and PSOE recover support after months of wear and tear, while Vox slows its growth and loses momentum for the first time in almost two years.

Vote transfers: the PP contains leaks and the PSOE absorbs Sumar

The most relevant movement of the poll is in the internal flows between parties. The PP manages to significantly reduce the leakage of voters towards Vox. The transfer from the PP to Vox falls from around 20% to 11.7% and the return of voters from Vox to the PP increases, which almost doubles. In this area, the net balance between both parties is reduced by half.

In parallel, the PSOE strengthens its position within the progressive bloc: Sumar increases the transfer of voters to the PSOE up to 16.4%. However, the socialist growth relies on the weakness of its partners and the alternative left loses weight without the capacity to compensate for the leakage.

Vox slows down after months of rising and loses ability to exert pressure

The key data of the poll is the halt of Vox. After months of sustained growth, the party loses 1.2 points and six seats, moving away from the 20% threshold that it had been touching.

This setback has a direct impact on the balance of the right. The distance between PP and Vox widens to 15.4 points. This allows the PP to gain margin in future government negotiations but causes the right-wing parties to lose the psychological threshold of 200 seats. However, the sum of both parties is still sufficient for an absolute majority (197 seats).

The alternative left continues at lows

The space to the left of the PSOE continues without capacity for recovery. Sumar falls to 12 seats, Podemos remains at very low levels, with barely two deputies. Both formations are very far from the 31 seats they jointly achieved in 2023.

The fragmentation and the loss of loyalty continue penalizing this block.

Young people, women and territories: keys to the new balance

The survey also reflects relevant changes in key segments:

• Young people (18-29 years old): the PSOE is positioned as the leading force (27.3%), followed by Vox (24.9%) and PP (19.5%).
• Women: the PSOE narrows the gap with the PP, reducing the gap to less than two points.
• Medium urban areas: the PP registers strong increases, while Vox suffers significant drops.

On the territorial plane, the trend replicates in key communities like Andalusia, Aragon or Castile and Leon, where the PP improves positions and Vox loses relative strength.