The concentration of the vote in the PSOE does not compensate for the fall of its partners and the right maintains a broad majority. The PSOE Pedro Sánchez moves between 107 and 109 deputies (26.9%), recovering ground compared to previous polls but still far from its results of 23-J, where it obtained 121 seats. This recent improvement does not change the balance of blocks.
The PSOE grows by concentration of vote but does not expand the left-wing bloc
The main movement that the poll detects is the concentration of the vote around the PSOE within the left-wing space. Part of Sumar's electorate returns to the socialists, with a transfer close to 20%.
However, this effect has a clear limit: it does not add new support to the bloc. The left as a whole remains around 120 seats in the best-case scenario, even below the results that the PSOE achieved alone in 2023.
Furthermore, a structural problem persists: the high demobilization continues, the leaks towards abstention, and the weakness of the partners
Vox consolidates but shows signs of stabilization
Santiago Abascal maintains an elevated position with between 63 and 64 seats and 18.3% of the vote. The figure represents almost doubling his 2023 results, but introduces a relevant nuance: growth is slowing down.
In comparison with the previous poll, it barely rises in vote (+0.2 points) and can lose up to 2 seats. This points to a scenario of stabilization after months of strong ascent.
Sumar and Podemos continue weakening
The space to the left of the PSOE continues in decline:
Sumar: 5.8% and between 8 and 9 seats
- Podemos: 3.8% and 2 deputies
Both parties lose weight and do not manage to consolidate an alternative within the progressive bloc. Part of their electorate is redistributed between the PSOE and abstention.
The right maintains structural advantage with high voter loyalty
The right-wing bloc continues to be the most solid in the system: the PP retains more than 82% of its electorate and Vox exceeds 88% loyalty. This level of retention contrasts with that of the left, where volatility is greater and indecision remains relevant.
The sum of PP and Vox is once again at absolute majority levels, consolidating their advantage in the current electoral cycle.
The youth vote strengthens Vox as a key player
One of the most consistent data of the survey is the behavior of the young electorate:
- Vox leads among 18-29 year olds (12.5%)
- PSOE (10.4%)
- PP (9.7%)
This pattern reinforces the role of Vox in the medium term and explains part of its structural growth.
NC Report for La Razón, published on 13/04/2026
| PARTY | SEATS | % OF VOTE |
| PP | 140-142 | 32,8 |
| PSOE | 107-109 | 26,9 |
| VOX | 62-64 | 18,3 |
| Sumar | 8-9 | 5,8 |