General election poll: PP and PSOE thanks to Vox's slowdown after half a year on the rise, according to 40dB

The latest 40dB poll for El País and Cadena SER confirms a change in trend in the polling cycle: PP and PSOE regain ground compared to the previous month, while Vox interrupts its upward trajectory for the first time in months.

The poll places populars and socialists with close to an additional point in vote estimation, consolidating a slight recovery after several months of wear. Vox, on the other hand, registers a slight setback and puts an end to a dynamic of sustained growth that had been extending since late summer.

Transfers: the PSOE recovers vote from the left and improves its loyalty

One of the most relevant movements occurs in the progressive bloc. The PSOE increases its retention capacity and, above all, expands the capture of voters coming from Sumar. Thus, the transfer from Sumar to the PSOE goes from less than 6% to almost 16%, the socialist vote loyalty improves by around three points and the mobilization of the PSOE electorate also increases notably.

This rebalancing explains the recovery of the PSOE without the need for large transfers from the right-wing bloc.

Vox stabilizes and the PP reduces leaks through its right flank

The other big change of the barometer is the slowdown in Vox. After months growing, the formation stabilizes and even slightly recedes.

This movement has a direct effect on the PP: the leakage of PP voters towards Vox falls from 15.2% to 12.8%. In this way, the popular party recovers part of the ground lost in previous months in this poll and Feijóo's party grows again, albeit moderately.

The combination of less leakage and greater stability explains the improvement of the PP in this poll.

The alternative left remains at lows

That said, in the space to the left of the PSOE there are no structural changes: Sumar stands at around 5.8%, practically stable while Podemos falls to 2.8%, close to lows. The sum of both forces is around 8.5%, very far from the combined result of 2023.

The fragmentation continues limiting the capacity of this space to compete in terms of seats.

Block scenario: sustained advantage of the right

Despite internal movements, the general balance barely changes. The right-wing bloc (PP + Vox + other options) remains above 50%. 

Although the PSOE narrows the gap, it remains behind the PP, the advantage between the two major parties is around two and a half points. The scenario continues to be one of clear advantage for the right, although with a slight internal recomposition within each bloc.