General election poll: PP and Vox confirm their strength despite Abascal's slight drops while PSOE resists, according to Ipsos

The right would exceed 190 seats with a Vox that doubles representation while Sumar and Podemos plummet to lows

The latest Ipsos poll draws a clear majority scenario for the right-wing bloc in Spain. According to the survey, Alberto Núñez Feijóo would obtain around 130 seats, while Santiago Abascal would climb to 64 deputies, practically doubling his current representation. The sum of both parties would reach 194 seats, well above the absolute majority.

Facing this bloc, Pedro Sánchez would remain at 117 deputies, with 28.4% of the vote. It is a three-point drop compared to the 2023 elections and leaves the PSOE at levels comparable to its worst recent records, also conditioned by the collapse of its space on the left.

Vox shoots up and capitalizes on the mobilization while the PP maintains the leadership

The most relevant data from the poll is the growth of Vox. The party goes from 33 to 64 seats and adds six points of vote, consolidating itself as a key actor of the right-wing bloc. Although a recent weakness is glimpsed in the sum of votes that Abascal's party has been showing in the polls over the last months, its high voter loyalty (above 85%) and its capacity to mobilize new voters, especially young people, is still there.

The PP, for its part, maintains the first position, although with a slight setback in favor of Vox. Even so, it retains a solid base that allows it to clearly lead the electoral scenario.

The PSOE resists in votes but loses governing capacity

The PSOE manages to partially contain the fall, but its problem is not in its own data, but in the block as a whole. With 117 seats, the socialists would not have options to articulate a majority. The wear and tear is reflected in the lower voter loyalty (around 64%), the larger pool of undecided voters, and the leaks towards abstention and towards other parties

The result places the PSOE in a defensive position, far from any competitive scenario for the Government.

Sinking of Sumar and Podemos: historic low of the space to the left of the PSOE

The clearest collapse occurs in the alternative left.

• Sumar falls to 5.8% and would barely achieve 7 seats
• Podemos would be left out of Congress or in residual figures

Even in the scenario of a joint candidacy, the space would barely reach 17 deputies, very far from the 31 seats achieved in 2023.

Fragmentation and demobilization explain this setback: less than 50% loyalty in Sumar, lower partial transfer towards the PSOE and loss of electoral mobilization

The key is in mobilization: the right exceeds 12 million votes

The poll reflects a structural difference between blocs, which speaks of the worst record of the progressive bloc since the 80s:

• Right (PP + Vox): more than 12 million votes
• Left: around 8.5 million

Furthermore, the turnout foreseen by Ipsos for a general election (around 67%) favors the right, which presents higher mobilization levels than the left.

Young people consolidate Vox as the first force in their segment

Another key piece of data from the study is the behavior by age: those under 34 years old are the least participative group but, among those who vote, Vox is the first force

This reinforces its structural growth and explains part of its sustained rise in recent months.

Government preferences: clear advantage for a PP-Vox Executive

In a scenario without an absolute majority, government preferences also favor the right-wing bloc:

• 32% bets on a PP government with Vox support
• 24% prefers to re-edit the current Executive
• The rest is distributed among formulas with the PP

The data confirms a majority inclination towards a change of political cycle.