The PSOE rises, but does not change the map of power
The socialist recovery occurs after hitting lows in the previous poll, where the party was below 100 seats. Now, with 26.5% of the estimated vote, Pedro Sánchez manages to recompose part of his electoral base, especially in the left-wing space.
Growth, however, has an evident cost: it occurs largely at the expense of its own allies. Sumar would fall to 9 seats and Podemos would be left with 3, reducing to a minimum the representation of the bloc that made the investiture possible. The result is a stronger PSOE alone, but with a much weaker parliamentary environment.
The consequence is direct: even with the improvement, the progressive bloc would not reach the necessary majority to govern.
Vox falls for the first time in a year and loses momentum
The other big movement detected by the survey is the halt of Vox. After months of sustained growth, Santiago Abascal's party retreats to 62 seats and 18% of the vote, moving away from the 20% threshold it had touched in previous estimates.
It is the first significant drop in a year, at a time when the party is going through internal tensions and strategic adjustments after its role in regional negotiations and with the weight of the strong rejection of Donald Trump by Spanish society as a whole. Even so, Vox remains well above its result in the last general elections, consolidating a high electoral floor.
The PP remains as first force and strengthens its advantage
In parallel, Alberto Núñez Feijóo's PP maintains its position without major variations. The survey grants it 140 seats, with an estimated vote close to 32%, which allows it to maintain a clear advantage over the PSOE.
Beyond the stability in the numbers, the relevant data is the perception: 40% of respondents believe that Feijóo will be the next president of the Government, compared to 29% who bet on Sánchez. The expectation of political change remains dominant, even in a context of partial recovery for the PSOE.
A solid right-wing majority and without alternatives
The most determining element of the poll is the sum of blocks. PP and Vox, together with UPN, would reach 203 seats, a broad absolute majority that is not affected by the internal movements of the left.
Against this, the current investiture bloc would remain around 146 deputies, very far from the majority. The growth of the PSOE does not compensate for the fall of its partners, and the parliamentary balance continues to clearly lean towards the right.
Trump and the 'No to War' mobilize the left
The shift in voting intention cannot be understood without the international context. The escalation between the United States and Iran and Donald Trump's leading role have reactivated a well-known political reflex in Spain: the "No to war" as a mobilizing element for the left-wing electorate. Moncloa has managed to capitalize on this climate, positioning Pedro Sánchez as a counterweight to the military offensive and building an emotional framework that once again polarizes the board. The result is an immediate effect in the polls: the PSOE regains ground by appealing to peace and the rejection of conflict, while Vox loses momentum in a scenario where security and intervention cease to be dominant vectors of public debate, and instead, the rising cost of energy and Donald Trump's leading presence in a moment of crisis that threatens the economy are.
Source: Sociométrica for El Español, published on 03/23/2026.
| PARTY | SEATS | % OF VOTE |
| PP | 140 | 31,9 |
| PSOE | 108 | 26,5 |
| Vox | 62 | 18 |
| Sumar | 9 | 6,9 |