General election poll: Vox loses half a million votes and Alvise (SALF) pressures, PP rises and PSOE cuts, according to Target Point

The latest Target Point poll for El Debate points to a significant shift in Spain’s national political landscape. Vox loses momentum for the first time in months, while the PP consolidates its position as the leading force and the PSOE manages to narrow the gap after mobilizing part of its electorate. Even so, the right-wing bloc would still clearly hold a majority.

Vox drops sharply: loses two points, nearly half a million votes and up to 10 seats

The most striking figure in the poll is Vox’s decline. Santiago Abascal’s party loses 2 percentage points, around 466,000 votes, and falls to a range of 63 to 64 seats, far from its recent expectations. 

This slowdown comes in a context marked by negotiations over ‘pending’ agreements with the PP following the regional elections in Extremadura, Aragon and Castile and León, internal tensions within the party itself, and the impact of the Castile and León election results

Even so, Vox maintains a solid base, with voter loyalty at 71.4%, although it is beginning to show notable losses, particularly towards other options, with a vote transfer to Alvise Pérez of 13.2%.

The PP rises and strengthens its lead as the top party

The Partido Popular reinforces its position and grows in this poll. Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s party rises by 1.2 points, gains 322,000 votes, and stands between 131 and 133 seats.

The PP also improves its voter loyalty, reaching 68.7%, and maintains a clear lead over the PSOE in both votes and parliamentary representation.

The PSOE narrows the gap and surpasses 110 seats

The PSOE also shows a significant recovery. It rises by 1.8 points, gains around 478,000 votes, and reaches between 112 and 114 seats.

This rebound occurs in a context shaped by the “No to War” narrative, which appears to have reactivated part of the left-wing electorate. However, the party still carries a high level of undecided voters, reaching 20.3%.

The right maintains a broad majority over the left

Despite these movements, the balance between blocs barely changes. The PP and Vox would jointly secure between 194 and 197 seats, well above the absolute majority threshold (176).

In percentage terms:

• Right (PP + Vox): 50%
• Left (PSOE + Sumar + Podemos): 37.8%

The gap exceeds 12 points, consolidating a scenario in which political alternation would depend more on internal adjustments than on structural changes.

Sumar holds steady while Podemos remains at low levels

Within the alternative left space, movements are more limited: Sumar rises to 6.9% and would obtain between 9 and 10 seats, while Podemos falls to 3.3% and would remain with 2 or 3 seats. Fragmentation continues to penalize this bloc, which fails to regain weight despite the political context.

A warning ahead of the Andalusian elections

The poll, conducted between March 24 and 26, reflects the impact of several recent factors: the international crisis linked to Iran, the political debate on war, and the results in Castile and León, and it also serves as an important warning for Vox, which faces the Andalusian elections on May 17, where Alvise has electoral strength (it should be noted that Pérez is from Seville).

Source: Target Point for El Debate, published on 29/03/2026.