The main feature of this weekend is that Spain is practically divided in two. While a good part of Andalusia and the peninsular west start Holy Week with relatively stable weather, the northern half and the northeast quadrant enter a more delicate scenario, with cloudiness, precipitation, thermal drop and warnings for coastal phenomena and wind.
AEMET places this Saturday the warnings in several communities and reserves special attention for Catalonia, with Girona and Tarragona at orange level for swell, in addition to snowfalls in Lleida and strong gusts in wide areas of the northeast.
That distribution matters a lot when talking about processions, because it does not affect all squares equally.
The brotherhood start in southern cities arrives with better meteorological prospects, while in northern and eastern territories the meteorology already becomes a real organizational factor.
During Holy Week, rain is always the great media protagonist, but this year's forecasts force us to also monitor the wind and cold, which can condition routes, schedules, and setup even if there are no significant downpours.
Seville and Andalusia start with an advantage, although without losing sight of the evolution
If there is a national reference when speaking of processions, that is Seville. The city officially enters its Holy Week this Sunday, March 29, with a calendar of brotherhoods that extends until Easter Sunday, after a Friday of Sorrows and a Saturday of Passion that already serve as a prelude.
And, as of today, the Andalusian framework is quite more favorable than that of the north of the country. AEMET's regional forecast for Andalusia points to partly cloudy or clear skies on the Atlantic slope and intervals of low clouds in other areas, without a general rain scenario that threatens the start in the great Andalusian venues.
That does not mean meteorological open bar, not by a long shot. The wind may make itself felt in some points of eastern Andalusia and in the area of the Strait and Alboran, where AEMET maintains attention on the easterly and northerly component regime at different moments of the weekend.
ero the overall picture is clear: compared to the Cantabrian, the Pyrenees, the northeast or the Balearic Islands, the south comes out better off for this start. And that, in terms of processions, is half a decision made.
The north arrives much more committed: rain, snow and cold
Where the weather does fully enter into the brotherhood conversation is in the northern third. AEMET's special prediction for the first days of Holy Week speaks of precipitation in the Cantabrian area and the rest of the northern third during the weekend, with an added element that completely changes the outlook: the irruption of polar air on Sunday, capable of lowering the snow level to about 400 to 700 meters.
That scenario weighs especially in cities and territories where Holy Week has a very deep-rooted tradition and much street, like Castile and Leon, Aragon or part of the interior north.
The problem is not only the possibility of precipitation, but the complete cocktail: drop in temperatures, north component wind, and a much harsher thermal sensation. When the brotherhoods and city councils look at the forecast, they look at exactly that: not only if water falls, but if the weather minimally accompanies the departure and the stay in the street.
Balearic Islands and the Eastern Mediterranean, another of the areas under surveillance
There is a second particularly sensitive area this weekend: the eastern Mediterranean and the Balearic Islands. AEMET places warnings for waves and wind in different sections of the coast, with special intensity in parts of Catalonia and also with vigilance in Mallorca and Menorca. In fact, on Sunday the special forecast itself contemplates that the Balearic Islands may register locally strong rainfall, in addition to intense gusts of northerly wind.
That affects less the classic narrative of the great Andalusian Holy Week, but editorially it is not convenient to lose sight of it. There are Mediterranean cities with acts, transfers, and first processional routes that depend a lot on the state of the sky and, above all, on the wind.
This year, Sunday seems more delicate than Saturday on that facade. And when the sea gets serious and the north wind blows, the feeling of instability multiplies even in places where the rain doesn't finish discharging clearly.
The true key day is Palm Sunday
If one had to keep a single useful idea for a news story about processions, it would be this: Sunday the 29th is the most sensitive point of the start of Holy Week.
The entry of polar air foreseen by AEMET causes a change of tone compared to Friday and Saturday, with a generalized drop in temperatures, snow at low altitudes in the north and intense wind in many areas of the center and the eastern half of the peninsula. Even meteorological communicators like Roberto Brasero have put the focus on that Palm Sunday as the day to watch in this first festive stretch.
That leaves a quite clear reading by zones. The processions of the south start with a more manageable situation and, barring a last-minute change, with less direct threat. Those of the north, the northeast and the Balearic Islands face a much tenser context, not only due to the rain but also due to the fully cold and windy environment. And in the peninsular center the key word is prudence: perhaps there isn't a situation as compromised as in the Cantabrian or the Pyrenees, but Sunday's thermal drop can clearly harden the day.
What comes next: relative relief, not total certainty
The forecast from Monday points to a certain stabilization in much of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, with precipitation more concentrated in the northern third and snow restricted mainly to the mountains. But AEMET introduces an important nuance: there is uncertainty about the possible evolution of a low-pressure system that, depending on how it moves, could end up affecting again the east, the south, and especially the Balearic Islands.
Translated to Holy Week language: after the scare of Palm Sunday, the map does not close completely.
That is why the brotherhoods, municipal services and thousands of people who have their sights set on the first processions are not looking only at a general report, but at a sequence of updates. The start of Holy Week 2026 is not marked by a widespread storm, but by a very uneven weekend in which the meteorology already weighs more than it seemed on Friday of Sorrows.