The reduction of the Social Security deficit to 0.4% of GDP in 2025, announced last week by the Minister of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration, Enma Saiz, seems like a historic milestone. However, various experts warn that this figure is, to a large extent, an accounting mirage, that is based on an adjustment of the accounts that hides the true magnitude of the system's structural deficit, sustained by increasing state transfers and additional debt. In other words, the “improvement” does not reflect a real fiscal consolidation, but an adjustment that transfers financial problems to another fund and to taxpayers.
An improvement questioned by the experts
The doctor and professor of Economics at Hesperides University, Santiago Calvo, explains that “the official deficit sounds good, but it is still creative accounting”. Since 2005, contributory benefits have increased by 94% in real terms, compared to a 35% increase in contributions, making a structural imbalance evident. According to Calvo, the deficit decreases because the State covers it with transfers of 53 billion and additional loans, but “that is not sustainability: it is simply moving the problem from one box to another”. The Social Security debt has reached 8.1% of GDP, a historical record.
For the economist, financial analyst and university professor, Javier Santacruz, “the Social Security accounts stopped showing reality years ago.” He highlights that approximately 20% of the system's income comes from Treasury transfers, which turns any deficit closure —or even surplus— into an accounting mirage. In 2025, to the published deficit, 47,815 million euros in transfers and another 10,000 additional millions obtained through indebtedness within the Social Security's own fund.
José Enrique Devesa, doctor in Economic and Business Sciences from the University of Valencia, maintains, for his part, that he thinks it is good that the Social Security deficit, about 7.4 billion euros, is reported, but the Ministry of Social Security would have to clarify that "it is a very doctored figure, because it does not reflect the reality of what is happening in the system and could create false expectations".
"If we take into account the contributory part of the system -points out the Insurance actuary from the Complutense University- then the deficit would rise to 30,000 million euros, that is, four times the figure offered. Since -concludes the technical coordinator of the Public Pensions Research Group of the Institute of Spanish Actuaries- the contributory deficit more faithfully reflects what is happening in the system, eliminating the accounting adjustments that are made to reach the figure offered by the ministry".
The use of agraged figures
Rafael Pampillón, Professor of Economics at IE Business School and at CEU San Pablo University, maintains that the improvement in the deficit responds to cyclical factors, such as the increase in employment in low-productivity sectors. “Celebrating these data without nuances can generate a false sense of sustainability,” he states. Furthermore, he reminds that the system continues to face significant pressures in the medium and long term, derived from the aging of the population, the increase in life expectancy, and the upcoming retirement of the baby boom generation. The increase in contributions also entails higher costs for companies and risks to competitiveness. Pampillón highlights that state transfers temporarily alleviate the accounts, but do not correct the structural imbalance of the system.
José María Rotellar, director of the Economic Observatory of Francisco de Vitoria University, warns that the public deficit of 2.18% of GDP in 2025 reflects a “recurrent pattern” of fiscal policy: the use of aggregate figures to build a narrative of consolidation that turns out to be “deeply misleading” when analyzed rigorously. According to him, the apparent improvement responds to cyclical factors such as inflation and increased spending, not to a real structural improvement.
The industrial engineer Jon González also provides figures: according to his calculation, the real contributory deficit reaches 63,907 million euros, well above the published accounting deficit of 0.4% of GDP.
The economist José Carlos Díez agrees that the official data “are more than enough makeup”. According to him, expenses exceed the fund's income by 50,000 million euros and approximately 25% of pension spending is financed with public debt. If the deficit were correctly calculated since 2008, Díez warns, the Social Security debt would not be at 8% of GDP, but close to 50%. His analysis reinforces the idea that the reduction of the published deficit does not reflect the real situation or the sustainability of the system.
Inflation and increase of incomes
In its assessment, the Government highlights a reduction in the deficit of 8,811 million euros. However, this figure -maintain the expert economists consulted by Demócrata- loses relevance compared to the increase in public revenues, which grew by 30,622 million euros. This increase is closely linked to inflation, which acts as a “hidden tax”. By not deflating the IRPF brackets, taxpayers pay more taxes simply due to the nominal effect of price increases, without this implying a real improvement in their economic capacity.
In general terms, experts also agree that the deficit reduction is an accounting mirage. Santiago Calvo, Javier Santacruz, Enrique Devesa, Rafael Pampillón, José María Rotellar and José Carlos Díez warn that the increase in transfers and indebtedness allows the deficit to be temporarily contained, but does not resolve the structural imbalance of the system nor guarantee its long-term sustainability; which is why they demand greater transparency and structural reforms, facing a scenario marked by population aging, the retirement of the baby boom and the sustained increase in pension spending, so that the “tinkering with the accounts” does not continue to hide the true financial situation of Social Security.