The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) communicated this Wednesday a downward adjustment of one tenth in its economic growth estimate for 2026, which now stands at 2.3%, while warning of significant downside risks derived from the crisis in the Middle East and from the possible breach of the spending rule, both national and European.
On the contrary, the nominal growth forecast, key for the analysis of public accounts, remains at 4.5%, as detailed by the "Report on the initial budgets of Public Administrations 2026", presented this Wednesday by the new president of the body, Inés Olóndriz, in her first appearance before the media since her appointment.
In its assessment, AIReF underlines that the war in Iran "introduces high downside risks" on the central scenario and estimates that the rise in energy prices could cut growth by 0.2 percentage points. However, it considers that the measures approved by the Executive "will partially compensate" that effect, with an estimated impact of 0.14 points on the 2026 average.
Deficit on the rise and revised inflation
In this "context of high geopolitical and economic uncertainty", AIReF also revises upwards the public deficit forecast for the whole of 2026, which increases by six tenths to 2.6% of GDP, mainly due to the effect of the extraordinary measures deployed.
The fiscal institution also raises its inflation projection to 3.2% in 2026, 1.2 points more than in January, and "warns of the risk of non-compliance" with the national spending rule and the European spending rule already in that fiscal year.
Impact of the war in Iran and of the Government's measures
The director of the Economic Analysis Division of AIReF, Esther Gordo, has stressed that there is "still much uncertainty" when quantifying the effect of the conflict in the Middle East, so they will have to update their forecasts "in the coming weeks" given the continuous evolution of the international scenario.
As he has indicated, "At the pace of declarations, ultimatums, truces... there has been much vulnerability" and difficulties in preparing reliable projections. Nevertheless, AIReF estimates the impact of the increase in oil and natural gas prices at -0.2% of GDP and an additional percentage point on the CPI.
Regarding the extraordinary measures promoted by the Government to cushion the consequences of the crisis in the Middle East, the fiscal authority estimates that they will entail an increase of one tenth of a point in GDP and a "null impact" (0.0%) on the CPI, due to their "transitory nature", since almost all of them end on June 30 of this year.
Furthermore, although the central scenario does not contemplate a partial or total and prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and despite the AIReF recognizing that Spain starts from a better position than in the past and compared to other countries, Gordo warns that, if the strait remained blocked for a long period, the effects on GDP would be "notable" both in Spain and in numerous economies.
"It can have intense implications" for national and global growth, insists the head of economic analysis of the institution.